FinalKelly/Shorts Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| CMU | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonCentral Michigan Chippewas to win 50¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: The straight global market accepts orders with approximately $18,561 traded; Central Michigan is priced near 49.5¢, with an actionable 50¢ complement price.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-8 on this game · −36% return
- Wyoming Cowboys to win−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, Short Yardage +1Why 3 models like it
Drift- Model 53.0% vs devigged Pinnacle 50.7%; gap +2.3 points.
- Wyoming season offensive EPA/play -0.04 vs Central Michigan -0.27.
- Only two games of current-season efficiency data; schedule adjustment is noisy.
Short Yardage- Wyoming’s two-game offense leads CMU by 0.23 EPA/play, 9.8 success points, and 0.78 points/drive.
- Wyoming leads current grades 73.8, 60.9 overall, with major pass-grade and pass-block advantages.
- Only two current-season games; both efficiency and grade samples are early and volatile.
Saturday Board Pairs- Wyoming's 2026 offense is -0.04 EPA/play and 45.9% success over 2 games; Central Michigan is -0.27 and 36.1%.
- Wyoming averages 19.2 seconds per play versus Central Michigan's 31.65, with PROE +0.01 versus -0.03; the pace profile favors Wyoming creating more possessions.
- LEAN cap: each team has only 2 current-season efficiency rows, below the 3-game coverage threshold; 2025's 12-game fallback is flagged.
- Central Michigan Chippewas to win+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The straight global market accepts orders with approximately $18,561 traded; Central Michigan is priced near 49.5¢, with an actionable 50¢ complement price.
- Both teams are 1-1, and the recent form data is thin after only two 2026 games.
- 1H total under 19.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model's conservative first-half projection is roughly 13, 15 points, below the 19.5 threshold.
- Wyoming and Central Michigan averaged only 1.42 and 0.64 points per drive, respectively, through two games.
- Central Michigan's offense produced -0.27 EPA/play and 36.1% success; Wyoming was also below zero EPA/play.
- Two-game samples make points-per-drive unstable and leave opponent quality unresolved.
- Wyoming Cowboys 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: Wyoming 51% first-half win probability versus a 45.7% devigged Kalshi three-way reference.
- Wyoming averaged 45.9% offensive success and -0.04 EPA/play across two 2026 games.
- Central Michigan averaged 36.1% success and -0.27 EPA/play, with -3.0% average PROE.
- Only two current-season games per team; opponent-quality adjustment is thin.
- Central Michigan +3 spread+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Central Michigan +3 pushes if Wyoming wins by exactly 3; +3.5 loses in that outcome.
- the ladder snapshot showed Central Michigan +3 at 57.98¢ versus +3.5 at 60.32¢; the live contract recheck now grades +3 at 56.9¢.
- Central Michigan loses outright if Wyoming wins by more than 3; the contract pushes only on the exact 3-point margin.
- Central Michigan Chippewas spread +1+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are Central Michigan 3 versus Wyoming 3; two measures agree. Backing Central Michigan +1, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- Book-level count is neutral at 3-3, so this is a two-of-three signal rather than unanimous corroboration.
Show all 10 picks
- Wyoming to win−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels: Wyoming 3 versus Central Michigan 3; levels do not corroborate, so the signal rests on the thin-at-quote plus deep-total pairing.
- Directional coherence check: backing Wyoming, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference, not an independent statistical edge; resting orders can be stale, cancelled, or concentrated with one participant.
- Wyoming Cowboys spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season offense EPA/play is Wyoming -0.04 versus Central Michigan -0.27 across two regular-season games; Tyler Hughes is confirmed as Wyoming's starter.
- Most likely loss: Central Michigan wins by 4 or more; the market is still near pick'em.
- Wyoming Cowboys 1H spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,042 signed FBS margins from 2024-26 have SD 22.76; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 16.09, not 11.38.
- Two-game 2026 inputs favor Wyoming: points/drive 1.42 vs Central Michigan 0.64, with Wyoming also better in offensive EPA and success rate.
- Pinnacle's near-pick'em full-game market is directionally consistent with a small Wyoming edge; it is not treated as a first-half quote.
- LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the 4.8-point probability gap is model-derived and the team sample is only two games.
- Game 1H total under 13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Wyoming vs. Central Michigan?
Central Michigan won 24-10 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.