Nebraska vs. OregonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalAutzen Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| ORE | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 50¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-5 on this game · +18% return
- Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, Kickoff LedgerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Oregon remains the market favorite, with the global spread board pricing Oregon -6.5 near 51.5%.
Kickoff Ledger- Nebraska owns the stronger 2026 offense: +0.255 EPA/play and 51.0% success rate versus Oregon's +0.101 and 46.9%.
- Nebraska's recent scoring margin is +23.2 over five games versus Oregon's +19.0; both teams last played October 10, creating essentially equal rest.
- Oregon's defense has the better season EPA allowed figure (-0.133 versus Nebraska's -0.049), and Autzen home field remains meaningful.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +6.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board- Load-bearing factor is the opponent-adjusted efficiency gap narrowing the modeled Oregon margin to about +4.0 rather than the market's +6.5; the seven-point key-number neighborhood favors the plus points.
- Most likely loss: Oregon wins by seven or more, converting home field and its defensive EPA edge into separation.
CFB HunterV2- Model cover probability 56.5%; Pinnacle devigged Nebraska +6.5 probability is 49.1%, a 7.4-point gap.
- Nebraska is 5-1 with a +24.0 average margin; its 2026 offense averages +0.255 EPA/play versus Oregon's +0.101.
- Oregon owns a 91.3 defense grade and 84.2 coverage grade, which can suppress Nebraska's efficient offense.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +8+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Saturday Board PairsWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- Key-number density: exact 7-point FBS margins occurred 884 times; +8 turns that landing into a win instead of a push.
- ProphetX moves Nebraska from +7 at 54.13¢ (-118) to +8 at 58.68¢; only 4.55 probability points buy the key-number step.
- Most likely loss: Oregon wins by 9 or more; Oregon has home field and superior 2026 PFF overall/defense grades, 92.2/91.3 versus Nebraska's 89.9/83.8.
Saturday Board Pairs- Nebraska's six-game 2026 sample: +0.255 EPA/play, .510 success and .142 explosive rate; Oregon's five-game sample is +0.101, .469 and .142.
- The efficiency gap is not an eight-point runaway signal: Nebraska's offense is materially more efficient than Oregon's offense, while both defenses are strong.
- Most likely loss: Oregon's 91.3 PFF defense overwhelms Nebraska's 79.1 offense and the Ducks win by 9 or more.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers to win−100%Lost
Taken at +205 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nebraska recent offensive EPA/play is 0.255 versus Oregon's 0.0973; season success rate is 0.476 versus 0.443.
- Market moved toward Nebraska: Oregon shifted from -7 to -6.5 and -263 to -248 after the quarterback news.
- Oregon's 91.3 PFF defense grade and 91.6 run-defense grade materially exceed Nebraska's 83.8 and 77.0.
- Oregon Ducks spread −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal is the core two-of-three pairing: thin-at-quote plus deep-in-total, without level-count corroboration.
- Directional check: backing Oregon -6.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- This is VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, not an independent SHARP REFERENCE; resting orders can be stale, canceled, concentrated, or strategically placed.
- Game total over 51.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FBS-only scoring blend is 57.4 points, 5.9 above the 51.5 line: Nebraska 40.2 scored/Oregon 27.5 allowed, Oregon 30.25 scored/Nebraska 16.8 allowed.
- Nebraska's offense leads the current sample at +0.252 EPA/play and 50.9% success; both teams clear the three-game Full-tier gate.
- Oregon's confirmed Brock Thomas start after Dante Moore's injury may have suppressed the market total while Nebraska's Anthony Colandrea has held the starting job all season.
- Oregon's offense averages only -0.028 EPA/play and 41.6% success in the FBS sample; Thomas could struggle in his first start.
Show all 11 picks
- Anthony Colandrea over 208.5 passing yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 5 of Colandrea's last 6 passing-yard lines clear 208.5: 275, 222, 195, 212, 238, 264.
- His latest six-game sample averages 234.3 passing yards on 29.3 attempts.
- FanDuel offers -112, implying 52.8%; my 68% estimate clears the required four-point value margin.
- Oregon owns a 91.3 defensive grade and recent defense EPA allowed of -0.0531 per play.
- Game under 51.5 total points+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Nebraska plays at a slower 23.7 seconds per play versus Oregon's 20.6, while both offenses have nearly identical explosive-play rates around 14.2%.
- Oregon's quarterback change is confirmed in current reporting: Brock Thomas gets his first career start after Dante Moore was ruled out.
- Nebraska's six-game average is 39.2 points for and 15.2 against; Oregon's five-game averages are 40.6 for and 16.6 against, but both recent games were lower-scoring losses.
- Oregon's faster tempo can create extra possessions, especially if Nebraska falls behind and abandons its slower preferred pace.
- Game first-half total under 16.5 points+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 0 points with 3:29 left in Q1; seven first-quarter drives and 27 plays have produced seven punts or an unfinished punt drive.
- Weeks 1-6: Nebraska’s valid pace averaged 27.42 sec/play and 11.17 drives; Oregon’s averaged 25.00 sec/play and 13.20 drives. Blended pace gives 10.25 baseline first-half drives.
- Combined prior-drive PPD is 3.31; PROE (.093 Nebraska, .165 Oregon) and nearly identical .142 explosive rates imply a specific 15.0% first-half uplift.
- Only 3:29 of Q1 has elapsed; additional possessions can arrive faster than the baseline.
- Oregon Ducks to win+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX moved from -210 pregame to -142 live at 0-0; the scoreless opening has driven an overreaction.
- The live feed shows no deficit after roughly 10:40, while Oregon remains the pregame favorite in the sharp reference market.
- Most likely loss: Nebraska's defense sustains its early resistance and Oregon's negative live offensive EPA becomes the true signal.
- Oregon Ducks spread −7−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's adjacent Oregon -6.5 is -102 / 50.50¢; the worse half-point is inexplicably cheaper by 3.77 implied-probability points.
- Single-leg price is 46.51¢ (+114); the mechanism is the venue's own spread-ladder dislocation, not the payout size.
- Most likely loss: Oregon wins by seven or fewer, or Nebraska wins outright, leaving the -7 ticket short.
Questions
Who won Nebraska vs. Oregon?
The Oregon won 17–14 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.