New Mexico vs. Hawai'iFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNM | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
| HAW | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal under 45.5 49¢
Heater Two-HourDown 9% this season · 145 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-9 on this game · −56% return
- New Mexico Lobos −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
D1 Winner- New Mexico averages +0.229 offensive EPA/play and -0.209 defensive EPA/play allowed; Hawai'i is +0.085 and +0.127.
- New Mexico leads 48.1%-46.9% in success rate and 13.2%-9.7% in explosive-play rate.
- Honolulu home field and the cross-Pacific trip can erase part of New Mexico's efficiency edge.
CFB HunterV2- ESPN pregame model projects New Mexico by 18.57 points; the market spread is 14.5.
- FPI ratings: New Mexico +9.046 versus Hawai'i -12.807; SP+ ratings are +12.3 versus -12.9.
- Hawai'i has home-field and travel advantages, while the 10-20 mph Honolulu wind can increase game variance.
- New Mexico Lobos spread over 14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Mexico: 0.229 offensive EPA/play and -0.209 defensive EPA/play allowed; Hawai'i: 0.085 and 0.127 respectively.
- New Mexico's sample is only five games and includes 70-7 and 61-7 wins; raw averages may overstate the matchup edge.
- New Mexico Lobos first-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no genuine sharp 1H book exists; Pinnacle's New Mexico -14.5 full-game spread and -668 moneyline were scaled down to a first-half distribution.
- Season-to-date: New Mexico averages +0.229 offensive EPA/play, -0.209 defensive EPA/play allowed, 3.33 points/drive; Hawai'i is +0.085, +0.127, and 1.45.
- New Mexico has led at halftime in 4 of 5; Hawai'i has led in 1 of 6, with New Mexico's observed mean halftime margin +19.2.
- DERIVED REFERENCE, not an independent first-half sharp price; scaling the -14.5 full-game line is the main model uncertainty.
- Total under 45.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Bailen George over 35.5 receiving yards−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 75% (3/4) of his 2026 appearances cleared 35.5 yards.
- Hawai'i ranks at the 35.1st favorable defensive percentile by opponent-adjusted EPA; six-game sample.
- Bailen George is listed Active, and FanDuel's game board prices him in this matchup.
- Hawai'i barely clears the brief's 35% matchup threshold, and its defensive sample is six games.
- New Mexico Lobos spread −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New Mexico leads the efficiency matchup: +0.229 offensive EPA/play and -0.209 defensive EPA allowed versus Hawai'i's +0.085 and +0.127.
- Season scoring averages are New Mexico 43.4 points, Hawai'i 16.7; a blended projection supports a 17.5-point fair spread.
- New Mexico is rested after an October 3 game; Hawai'i played October 10, giving the Lobos a one-week rest edge.
- Hawai'i has home-field advantage and the long New Mexico travel itinerary can erase part of the rest edge.
Show all 11 picks
- New Mexico Lobos to win+15%Won
Taken at −650 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sportsbook devig baseline prices New Mexico near 83.7%; the model gap is about 6.1 percentage points.
- New Mexico is 4-1 with 217 points scored and 53 allowed; Hawai'i is 1-5 with a -54 scoring margin.
- New Mexico's recent 10-game profile shows +0.1398 EPA/play and 2.865 points per drive; Hawai'i shows 1.732 points per drive.
- The DraftKings price moved from -675 to -650, a market move against New Mexico.
- New Mexico Lobos 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UNM’s five-game average is +0.229 offensive EPA/play versus Hawai'i allowing +0.141 defensive EPA/play.
- Recent live previews identify Toa Fa'avae as New Mexico's full-time starter and Micah Alejado as Hawai'i's quarterback.
- New Mexico's 32.8-second average pace compresses possessions, increasing tie and one-turnover variance.
- New Mexico Lobos first-half spread YES 10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Toa Fa'avae and Micah Alejado led each team's recent passing games; Fox's current listing names both starters.
- Pinnacle -14.5 scaled to 7.25 implies roughly 39.3%; college histogram buckets peak at 3, 6, and 9.
- No posted first-half sharp line; the 50/50 model blend is sensitive to the chosen anchor.
- New Mexico Lobos over 30.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at −120 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- EPA delta +0.1017/play: New Mexico offense +0.2288 minus Hawai'i defensive EPA allowed +0.1272, across 5 and 6 current-season games.
- New Mexico converted 19 of 28 red-zone trips to touchdowns (.679) over its last five; Hawai'i allowed 11 of 16 (.688).
- Explosiveness favors the over: New Mexico 1.299 versus Hawai'i defensive explosiveness allowed 1.170.
- New Mexico is slow at 32.786 seconds/play while Hawai'i is fast at 20.868; the pace disagreement caps this at 0.5u.
- Game first-half total under 23.5 points+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; model projects 22.9 first-half points versus the 23.5 threshold.
- Valid 2026 season window: New Mexico averaged 68.0 plays, 32.79 seconds/play, 11.8 drives and 3.33 points/drive; Hawai'i averaged 77.2 plays, 24.77 seconds/play, 11.5 drives and 1.49 points/drive.
- Specific script uplift is 12.4%: New Mexico PROE/explosive proxy −0.8%; Hawai'i +25.6%; average uplift applied to the 2.41 combined offensive points/drive baseline.
- The direct 22.9 projection is only 0.6 points below 23.5; variance dominates a thin LEAN.
Questions
Who won New Mexico vs. Hawai'i?
The New Mexico won 21–10 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.