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Ohio vs. Sacramento StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHornet Stadium
Ohio4–2
48–7Final
Sacramento State1–5
Score by period
Team1234T
OHIO72014748
SACR00077

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ohio Bobcats to win 87¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-13 on this game · −47% return

  1. Game total under 472 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTempo Board, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Board
    • ProphetX team-total under anchors are Ohio 30.5 (+102, $2,000) and Sacramento State 15.5 (-128, $1,050); thresholds sum to 46.
    • Tempo supports the same direction: valid 2026 pace averages are approximately Ohio 29.8 and Sacramento State 27.1 seconds/play.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio's defense allows +0.116 EPA/play and Sacramento State's +17.8% PROE creates enough efficient or explosive scoring.
    Long Way Home
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; reference label: SHARP REFERENCE.
    • Six-game scoring averages combine to 43.8 points: Ohio 27.5 and Sacramento State 16.3, 3.2 below the 47-point rung.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio's offense reaches 30-plus and Sacramento State contributes enough late points to push the game above 47.
  2. Game total under 47.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • ProphetX prices Under 47.5 at 53.92¢ (-117) versus Under 47 at 53.05¢ (-113), only a 0.87-point implied-probability step.
    Tempo Board
    • the existing under 47 is retained; the main ladder moved to 46.5, making under 47.5 a permitted new-line add rather than a blind repeat.
    • Valid tempo samples are moderate: Ohio averages 29.82 seconds/play across 3 usable 2026 rows and Sacramento State 27.13 across 5.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio exploits Sacramento State’s +0.106 defensive EPA allowed per play, reaches the mid-30s, and Sacramento State adds enough points to clear 47.5.
  3. Ohio Bobcats to winFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. Sacramento State Hornets +14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Double-Digit DogNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's de-vigged +14.5 fair is 48.1%; the brief's key-number adjustment lifts the reference to 51.1%, a 4.1-point gap.
    • Ohio has averaged 42.0 seconds per snap through six games, a slow pace that compresses margins.
    • The +14.5 rung is preferred over +13.5 at 43c, and the Novig Sacramento ladder is monotonic through +18.5.
    • The 3.0-point key-number uplift is heuristic; without it, the raw Pinnacle-versus-Novig gap is only about 1.1 points.
  5. Ohio Bobcats spread NO over 13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle anchors Ohio -14.5; devigged cover probability is about 52%, making NO at the one-point-softer 13.5 rung roughly 48% before adjustment.
    • 2026 team rates: Ohio averages 27.5 points and 0.087 EPA/play; Sacramento State averages 16.3 points and -0.050 EPA/play.
    • A blended current-form/anchor estimate centers the margin near 11.5, giving about 55% for Ohio to stay at or below 13.5.
    • The six-game form sample is small and not opponent-adjusted; the 11.5 projected margin could simply be too low.
  6. Game under 47.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring averages total 44.8 points: Ohio 27.5 and Sacramento State 16.3 through six games.
    • Sacramento State's offense is -0.050 EPA/play with 1.18 points per drive; Ohio's defense can constrain an already inefficient attack.
    • The pace contrast is meaningful: Ohio averages 16.1 seconds per play, Sacramento State 23.2, limiting Hornet possessions.
    • Biggest risk: Ohio's defense allows +0.116 EPA/play, and Sacramento State can exceed its baseline with explosive plays.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Ohio Bobcats spread −15
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six-game FBS sample: Ohio is +0.0874 EPA/play and .4915 success rate; Sacramento State is -0.0497 EPA/play and .4591 success rate.
    • Ohio’s offense has the better matchup: +0.0874 offensive EPA/play against Sacramento State’s +0.1062 defensive EPA allowed, while the Hornets’ offense is negative EPA.
    • PFF 2026 team card favors Ohio 83.6 overall, 77.9 defense and 71.2 coverage over Sacramento State at 70.0, 61.5 and 48.2.
    • Most likely loss: Sacramento State’s poor season record masks a short-field or explosive-play game, keeping Ohio within but below a 16-point margin.
  2. Sacramento State +15
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3, 3; the read qualifies on two measures, with raw stakes large enough to avoid a handful-of-dollars artifact.
    • Directional coherence check: backing Sacramento State +15, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Whole-board bands: spread +15 qualifies RECOMMENDED; ML and total did not.
    • This is entirely ProphetX self-reference; there is no independent sharp-book confirmation of the order-flow hypothesis.
  3. Game total under 48
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scoring averages total 43.8 points: Ohio 27.5 and Sacramento State 16.3; the matchup baseline sits below 48.
    • CFB total histogram records 326 exact 48-point games; under 48 preserves a push at this dense rung.
    • Ohio posts +0.0874 offensive EPA/play while Sacramento State posts -0.0497; the offense and pace gap supports Ohio control without requiring a shootout.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio and Sacramento State reach 49 or more; Ohio's 83.6 overall grade versus Sacramento State's 70.0 creates blowout scoring risk.
  4. Sacramento State +16 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio's six-game scoring-margin average is only +2.8 versus Sacramento State's -13.8; home field keeps the projected gap below the 16-point rung.
    • Key-number density favors the dog: exact 14-point margins occurred 470 times and exact 15 occurred 174, while +16 wins through 15 and pushes at 16.
    • QB gate cleared: latest box leaders are Nick Poulos (18 attempts) and Jackson Sharman (28); current Ohio and Sacramento State reporting supports their ongoing roles.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio wins by 17 or more; its 83.6 PFF overall grade and 77.9 defense materially exceed Sacramento State's 70.0 and 61.5.
  5. Ohio Bobcats −17
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five FBS games: Ohio is +0.037 EPA/play with 47.0% success and 10.6% explosiveness; Sacramento State is -0.090, 45.2%, and 8.1%.
    • Ohio’s FBS defensive EPA allowed is +0.168 versus Sacramento State’s +0.269; recent form is Ohio 4-1/+9.0 margin versus Sacramento State 1-4/-13.8.
    • Current matchup reporting lists Matt Vezza and Jackson Sharman as the starting quarterbacks; both teams have five FBS games in the current sample.
    • The five-game averages are opponent-unadjusted; no margin simulation was run, so the 55% fair estimate is uncertain.
  6. Game total over 46.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only five-game blend projects Ohio 31.1 plus Sacramento State 18.7, or 49.8 total, 3.3 above the line; no simulation used.
    • Sacramento State allows 0.269 EPA/play and 36.2 points per FBS game; Ohio's offense averages 26.0 FBS points with a 0.106 explosive rate.
    • Pinnacle over 46.5 -112; context only, not the thesis. Expected QBs are Nick Poulos and Jackson Sharman per current previews.
    • Sacramento State averages only 9.2 points per FBS game; another stalled offense can leave Ohio needing nearly 38 points.
  7. Riley Neer anytime touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +140 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +140 implies 41.7%; model probability is 55%, a 13.3-point value margin.
    • Neer scored in 4 of 6 2026 games, clearing the brief's 60% recent hit-rate threshold.
    • Neer has 397 receiving yards and five receiving touchdowns through six games.
    • Ohio's official preview does not confirm its starting quarterback; quarterback uncertainty can redistribute touchdown chances.
  8. Ohio Bobcats −15.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio owns the efficiency matchup: +0.087 offensive EPA/play versus Sacramento State's -0.050.
    • Ohio's success rate is 49.1% versus Sacramento State's 45.9%; explosive rate is 11.9% versus 8.8%.
    • Ohio averages 2.41 points per drive; Sacramento State averages 1.18, supporting a fair spread near Ohio -17.0.
    • Biggest risk: Ohio's defense allows +0.116 EPA/play, leaving a path for Sacramento State to backdoor-cover.
  9. Game first-half total under 27.5 pointsFavorite
    +28%Won

    Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 pregame valid pace: Ohio 29.82 and Sacramento State 27.13 seconds/play; blended pace is 28.48.
    • Average PROE is 9.2% and explosive rate 10.3%; their 9.8% script uplift scales the live 44.5 full-game reference to 19.7 first-half points.
    • Weather is possession-neutral: 5-mph gust and zero precipitation; both starting QBs are confirmed by live passing data and current-game action.
    • The direct drive projection is model-derived, not an independent first-half sharp total; distribution variance remains large.
  10. Game first-half total under 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup PPD cross-check: Ohio offense 2.41 versus Sacramento State defense 2.78 allowed; Sacramento offense 1.18 versus Ohio defense 2.26 allowed.
    • Specific uplift proxy is 9.9% from weighted PROE 9.6% and explosive rate 10.3%, not a flat half-total assumption.
    • The direct PPD cross-check produces 24.7 points, only 0.8 above the derived 23.7 reference; the under margin is narrow.
  11. Sacramento State Hornets spread +16
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio's 2026 offense is +0.087 EPA/play with a 49.1% success rate, but its defense allows +0.116 EPA/play.
    • Sacramento State's 1-5 record and -13.8 recent scoring margin are already reflected in a generous 16-point home cushion; its average loss margin is below this number.
    • Ohio's current-season scoring margin is only +2.8 per game, while Sacramento State's defense has allowed 30.2 points per game, an unfavorable profile for a road favorite laying 16.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio converts its superior offense against Sacramento State's defense and wins by 17 or more.

Questions

Who won Ohio vs. Sacramento State?

The Ohio won 48–7 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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