San José State vs. UTEPFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSun Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 7 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 24 |
| UTEP | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan José State Spartans to win 72¢
Heater Two-HourDown 9% this season · 145 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-5 on this game · −37% return
- Game total over 45.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - UTEP Miners to win−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book_levels are UTEP 3 vs SJSU 3; the thin-plus-deep pairing supplies two agreeing measures.
- Book-level corroboration is absent: both sides show 3 levels.
- Game total over 44−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days - UTEP Miners spread +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days - UTEP Miners spread +7−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SJSU offense +0.047/play; UTEP defense allows +0.218; UTEP offense -0.005 supports a competitive landing.
- Most likely loss: SJSU's offense exploits UTEP's defense and wins by 8 or more.
- San José State Spartans to win+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Show all 8 picks
- San José State Spartans spread −7+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my cover estimate is 55%, versus 50.74¢ implied by the ProphetX -103 quote.
- San José State averages 21.0 points and allows 23.5 through six games; UTEP averages 15.8 and allows 39.5.
- Efficiency gap: SJSU is +0.047 EPA/play offensively with +0.054 defensive EPA allowed, versus UTEP at -0.005 and +0.218.
- Most likely loss: UTEP's home-field edge plus SJSU's limited offense produces a margin of six or fewer; exactly seven is a push.
- Game total under 48.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- UTEP has scored 13 or fewer in three of its last four games, including two games with seven points.
- San José State's last five totals were 29, 36, 36, 50 and 48; four stayed below 48.5.
- The full-game market centers around 46.5-47, while this ticket gets 48.5 for added cushion.
- UTEP's last five totals include 68, 69 and 61, so the distribution is volatile rather than uniformly low.
Questions
Who won San José State vs. UTEP?
The San José State won 24–11 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.