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Utah vs. ColoradoFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFolsom Field
Utah5–0
27–24Final
Colorado2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
UTAH767727
COLO0017724

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 49.5 total 50¢

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-21 on this game · −71% return

  1. Utah Utes spread −15.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Model cover 54.0%: Utah leads Colorado in five-game offensive EPA/play 0.342 to -0.059 and defensive EPA allowed -0.095 to -0.028.
    • Utah leads success rate 57.1%-42.3%, explosive rate 16.3%-12.2%, and average margin +29.8 to -6.8.
    • Most likely loss: Utah wins but Colorado stays within 15 points or scores a late backdoor touchdown.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • PROJECTION is the named edge class; SHARP REFERENCE: the contemporaneous captured main spread was 15.5, with Utah priced around -110 to -112 elsewhere, used only as context.
    • Personnel gate: live pregame reporting identifies Devon Dampier continuing as Utah's QB and Isaac Wilson starting for Colorado; the latest conference report has no quarterback marked Out or Doubtful.
    • The four-game FBS samples are raw and opponent-unadjusted; no simulation was run, so a 61% fair estimate remains model uncertainty.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Utah: +0.342 offensive EPA/play and 57.1% success rate over five 2026 games, versus Colorado -0.059 and 42.3%.
    • Utah's defense has allowed -0.095 EPA/play; Colorado's offense has averaged only 18.6 points and -0.028 defensive EPA allowed does not erase the offensive gap.
    • Colorado's home field and late-game scoring can create a backdoor cover even if Utah controls the matchup.
  2. Utah Utes −14.52 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Utah averages +0.342 offensive EPA/play and 57.1% success; Colorado is -0.059 EPA/play and 42.3% success.
    • Utah's defensive EPA allowed averages -0.095/play versus Colorado's -0.028; the matchup projects a major line-of-scrimmage efficiency gap.
    • Colorado has roughly two weeks of rest while Utah has the normal seven-day turnaround.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Utah leads Colorado by 0.401 EPA/play, 14.9 percentage points in success rate, and 0.041 in explosive rate.
    • Utah is 5-0 with a +29.8 recent scoring margin; Colorado is 2-3 with a -6.8 margin.
    • Colorado has home field and a backdoor-cover path if Utah protects a lead late.
  3. Game total under 502 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Utah averages +0.3423 EPA/play and .5715 success against Colorado's -0.0279 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Colorado averages -0.0586 EPA/play and .4227 success against Utah's -0.0952 defensive EPA allowed; points per drive are 1.42 versus Utah's 3.61.
    • Most likely ticket loss: Colorado's fast pace creates extra possessions and Wilson converts explosive throws, pushing the game above 50.
    Tempo Board
    • ProphetX's Colorado under 16.5 (-105) and Utah under 32.5 (-106) team-total thresholds sum to 49, modestly below the game rung; the Utah anchor is thin.
    • five-game samples show Utah at 29.47 seconds/play, +7.4% PROE, 16.3% explosive and 57.2% successful versus Colorado at 22.41, +11.9%, 12.2% and 42.3%.
    • Most likely loss: Utah's 16.3% explosive rate overwhelms Colorado's defense and Colorado finds short fields, pushing the game above 50.
  4. Game total under 49.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Two of three measures agree: under is thin at the quote and deeper in total depth; book levels are neutral at 3 versus 3.
    • Directional check: backing under 49.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides have 3 levels, so the signal is only a two-measure configuration.
    Tempo Board
    • ProphetX team-total anchors are Utah under 28.5 (-111) and Colorado under 13.5 (+172); thresholds sum to 42.
    • Utah and Colorado average 29.47 and 22.41 seconds/play across five 2026 games.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado’s slower pace accelerates and Isaac Wilson creates enough explosive scoring against Utah.
  5. Utah Utes −21.5Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle -14.5 anchor is 52.2% Utah after de-vigging +103/-116; the -21.5 rung crosses keys 17 and 21.
    • Isaac Wilson was confirmed as Colorado's starter; Utah's current line is built around returning starter Devon Dampier.
    • A coarse key-number adjustment may overstate fair probability at a seven-point-extreme rung.
  6. Over 49.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
Show all 21 picks
  1. Utah Utes to winFavorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at 86¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • After five 2026 games, Utah leads Colorado in offense EPA/play 0.342 to -0.059, success rate 57.1% to 42.3%, and explosive rate 16.3% to 12.2%.
    • Utah's defense allows -0.095 EPA/play versus Colorado's -0.028; average margins are +29.8 and -6.8, respectively.
    • Both quarterbacks cleared the official 10/16 availability report; current reporting has Utah's Devon Dampier and Colorado's Isaac Wilson in the starting roles.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado's home field and an Isaac Wilson explosive-play or turnover swing overwhelm Utah's efficiency edge.
  2. Utah Utes spread −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah averages +0.342 EPA/play and 3.61 points per drive versus Colorado -0.059 and 1.42.
    • Model margin mean is Utah +18.5 with SD 17; the -14.5 rung sits just beyond key 14.
    • Devon Dampier and Isaac Wilson are the reported starters, each cross-checked as the latest team's pass-attempt leader.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado's Isaac Wilson avoids turnovers and keeps the home game inside 14 points.
  3. Utah Utes first-half winnerFavorite
    +32%Won

    Taken at 76¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no independent sharp first-half book was posted; Pinnacle's -15.5 full-game line and 49.5 total were scaled to a first-half margin distribution, with a raised 5.0-point bar.
    • Utah's 2026 first-half margins were +24, +26, +26, +21, and +4: 5-0, +20.2 average; Colorado was 2-3 at halftime with a +0.2 average margin.
    • Season-to-date Utah leads Colorado in off EPA/play (0.342 vs -0.059), success rate (57.1% vs 42.3%), explosive rate (16.3% vs 12.2%), and points/drive (3.61 vs 1.42).
    • DERIVED REFERENCE, not a genuine first-half sharp price; full-game scaling is the key model uncertainty and cannot be treated as the same rung.
  4. Game under 49.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah and Colorado average 42.8 and 18.6 points per game, respectively, through five games; Colorado's offense is -0.059 EPA/play.
    • Utah's defense averages -0.095 EPA/play allowed, while Colorado's recent offense has produced 7, 13 and 7 points in its last three games.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Utah's Devon Dampier and Colorado's Isaac Wilson; Colorado's coach said the plan targets 17-24 pass attempts.
    • Colorado's two-week rest and home setting could improve its offense beyond the recent sample.
  5. Utah Utes −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 sample: Utah offense averages +0.3423 EPA/play and .5909 success versus Colorado's defense allowing -0.0279 EPA/play.
    • The opposite matchup is weaker for Colorado: its offense averages -0.0586 EPA/play and .4387 success; Colorado averages 1.72 points/drive versus Utah's 3.61.
    • Utah's .1632 explosive rate and 87.2 PFF offense grade, including 90.3 passing, materially exceed Colorado's .1221 explosive rate and 69.6 offense grade.
    • Most likely loss: Colorado uses its 15-day rest gap and home field to avoid turnovers, turning a Utah win into a margin under 13.
  6. Utah Utes −15.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah is 8-1 ATS with one push over its last 10; Colorado is 2-8 ATS.
    • PFF team grade favors Utah 92.8 to 80.6; Utah has also won five straight this season.
    • Estimated 63% cover probability versus 52.4% FanDuel break-even; PWP Composite Grade 78/100.
    • The -15.5 is higher than Utah’s -14 line in last year’s 53-7 win over Colorado.
  7. 1st-quarter total over 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The two teams' recent first-quarter scoring averages sum to 17.4 points: Utah 12.0 and Colorado 5.4.
    • Utah scored at least 12 first-quarter points in four of five recent games.
    • Utah's five-game offense averages +0.342 EPA/play, 57.1% success, and a 16.3% explosive rate.
    • The first-quarter sample is only five games per team; Colorado's 18-point outburst came against Weber State.
  8. Utah Utes 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +33%Won

    Taken at 75¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah averages +0.342 offensive EPA/play and 57.1% success across five 2026 games.
    • Colorado averages -0.059 offensive EPA/play and only 42.3% success across its five games.
    • Utah is 5-0 with a +29.8 recent scoring margin; Colorado is 2-3 at -6.8.
    • The three-way first-half market includes a tie, and one turnover can decide a low-possession half.
  9. Game first-half total over 26.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION, 5-game averages show 13.2 first-half drives versus 24.6 full-game drives.
    • Pace: Utah 29.4 and Colorado 22.7 weighted seconds/play; blended 26.0 supports approximately 74 first-half plays.
    • Points/drive baselines are Utah 3.61 and Colorado 1.42; mean PROE (.0766, .1218) gives a specific 9.9% uplift.
    • Colorado PPD is noisy: its five-game range is 0.54, 3.71, and opponent quality is not fully adjusted.
  10. Game total under 51.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah allows -0.0696 EPA/play; Colorado produces -0.0543 EPA/play and averages 18.6 points across five 2026 games.
    • Utah’s 28.42-second pace and Colorado’s weak offensive efficiency project below the 49.5 market total despite Utah’s strong offense.
    • 51 occurred 334/10,371 CFB games versus 259 at 52; under 51.5 captures the dense 51-point landing.
    • Most likely loss: Utah’s +0.3466 offensive EPA/play creates 35-plus points, while Colorado contributes enough for 52 or more.
  11. Utah Utes spread −12.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's six-game form is +29.8 points per game in margin; Colorado's is -6.8.
    • Key-number density: the -12.5 rung preserves margins 13 and 14; those exact margins account for 661 of 11,263 FBS games.
    • Pinnacle and DraftKings reference Utah around -14.5 to -15.5, corroborating the projection direction; same-board ML is Utah -640.
    • Most likely loss: Utah wins by 1-12 points, or Colorado wins outright; -12.5 has no push protection.
  12. Wayshawn Parker first touchdown scorerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +340 on DraftKings

    CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah is AP No. 11 at 5-0; ESPN projects an 87.7% Utah win probability and a 16.745-point road margin.
    • Utah averages +0.3423 EPA/play, 57.1% success, 16.3% explosive plays and 3.61 points/drive; the game line implies roughly 32.5 Utah points.
    • Parker has 66 carries for 499 yards and 7 rushing TDs plus 17 receptions, 190 yards and 4 receiving TDs; PFF credits 83 touches and a 93.1 rushing grade.
    • A Colorado score, field goal, turnover return, or another Utah player scoring first ends this high-variance ticket.
  13. Utah Utes first-half spread NO 10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s full-game Utah -15.5 scales to a first-half mean of roughly +7.75.
    • No independent first-half sharp quote exists; the -15.5 full-game reference is scaled, not a posted half line.
  14. Utah Utes spread −21.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book_levels are Utah 3 and Colorado 3; two of three measures agree, with a few hundred dollars on the thin side rather than a token quote.
    • Directional check: backing Utah -21.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • A 21.5-point alternate spread is high variance; Colorado can backdoor-cover even if Utah controls the game.
  15. Game total under 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's opening drive needed 12 plays for its touchdown; the early score shows efficiency, not yet a sustained shootout pace.
    • Colorado's three latest listed games show 7, 13, and 7 points, with offensive EPA/play of -0.1432, -0.2123 and -0.3271.
    • Live state is 7-0 Utah at 8:58 of Q1, so the under needs Colorado and Utah to combine for 41 or fewer additional points.
    • play Utah touchdown drive may be the start of a high-efficiency game rather than an isolated opening result.

Questions

Who won Utah vs. Colorado?

The Utah won 27–24 on Saturday, Oct 17, 2026.

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