FinalSR-Bank Arena · Stavanger
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BM | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| VIKI | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 68¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Model xG totals 5.01: Viking 2.24, Bayern 2.77; four goals clears this line.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −41% return
- Total goals under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsBench Boss, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Bench Boss- confirmed Bayern four-defender/four-midfielder/one-forward structure versus Viking's 4-3-3 favors control over an open exchange.
- Bayern's 68.9% possession and 0.77 field tilt versus Viking's 0.47 field tilt support territorial suppression after Bayern leads.
- Most likely loss is Bayern scoring early and Viking's 4-3-3 transition game turning the second half into a five-goal shootout.
Long Haul- Bayern have 3 rest days versus Viking's 4, about 1,250 derived road km, and a confirmed artificial-turf surface.
- Poisson translation of the covered lambdas (1.09 home, 3.12 away; total 4.21) gives approximately 58.9% for 0-4 goals.
- Most likely loss is five or more goals; the 4.21 total-lambda baseline leaves roughly 41% in that tail.
- Total goals over 3.5+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model xG totals 5.01: Viking 2.24, Bayern 2.77; four goals clears this line.
- Confirmed XI retains Kane, Olise, Díaz and Kimmich; Bayern’s attacking core remains intact despite rotation.
- Viking’s dual-coach setup favors an attacking home approach rather than a passive block; scouting reports 56 goals in 22 league matches.
- The 68¢ price leaves a narrower margin than the raw four-goal estimate; fees and spread reduce realized edge.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10 xG-backed matches each; opponent-adjusted blend is 3.42 goals.
- Raw 10-match xG blending gives 3.88 goals; its Poisson under-4.5 estimate is about 65%, closer to the model's implied roughly 4.2-goal mean.
- Pinnacle same-rung 4.5 is over -103 / under -111, devigged to about 50.9% under; ProphetX offers 51.22c.
- Moderate, not deep, coverage: only 10 xG-backed games per side; the raw-versus-adjusted disagreement is material.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG is Viking 1.82 for / 1.63 against and Bayern 2.58 for / 0.81 against; the ladder's under 4.5 is -105, leaving the 3.5 rung as the value step below the main 4.5 line.
- The most likely loss is 4+ goals; the model still assigns about 60.6% to that outcome, so this is a high-variance plus-money under.
- Both Teams To Score+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Viking scoring read 72.9% (1.82 oppadj xGF vs Bayern 0.94 xGA); Bayern read 88.5% (2.58 vs Viking 1.81).
- Symmetric BTTS case: both sides clear a 70% scoring probability; this is not a total-goals proxy or one-sided clean-sheet setup.
- Viking is the weaker scoring side and Bayern's 0.94 xGA can still produce a clean sheet.
- Match total under 4.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model total is 4.21 goals; Poisson-style estimate puts 4 or fewer at about 58.8%.
- Kalshi NO on Over 4.5 costs 52¢, below my 58.5% win estimate.
- Pinnacle's live Under 4.5 price is -119, broadly consistent with a market probability near 52.6%.
- Bayern starts Harry Kane and Michael Olise; a dominant attack can create five goals quickly.
Show all 8 picks
- FC Bayern München spread 2.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Dixon-Coles lambdas are Viking 1.09 and Bayern 3.12; xG coverage is true with 10 matches for each side.
- Pinnacle's current +2.75 line is a meaningful market disagreement and may indicate Bayern's true 3+ probability is higher than this model.
- Total Goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Questions
Who won FC Bayern München vs. Viking?
Viking won 3-3 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.