FinalBakı Olimpiya Stadionu · Baku
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLAV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SABA | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal Goals under 2.5 39¢
Why Deep Book likes it: Soccer features are complete through 10/09; the flow call is published as LEAN because the venue signal is stronger than the corroboration.
Deep BookDown 7% this season · 971 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −57% return
- Total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsBench Boss, Soccer Default Picks +1Why 3 models like it
Bench Boss- Sabah's 10-match home style shows 13.59 PPDA, while Slavia's 8.72 press and 1.03 directness create a structural transition mismatch.
- soccer_query shows confirmed 11-man starting XIs for both teams with no unresolved lineup flip; 4 days' Slavia rest versus Sabah's 33 also raises late-game volatility.
- Most likely loss: Slavia controls the match but finishing stays poor and Sabah contributes little, producing 0-2 total goals.
Soccer Default Picks- Final model probability: 66%; 3.38-goal blended xG expectation clears 2.5.
- Sabah: 1.81 xG for and 1.68 conceded per match across 10.
- No confirmed XI in the warehouse; pre-match rotation can change attacking output.
Long Haul- Recent form supports chance creation: Slavia Praha 4-1 over its last five; Sabah 2-3, while rolling shots favor Slavia 17.8 to 15.0.
- Grass is confirmed, but this ticket deliberately uses no unconfirmed rest, travel, surface, or aggregate pillar.
- Coverage is thin: min_gp_with_xg is 1, so the lambda/model read is low-confidence and capped at a lean.
- total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended xG projection is 3.38 goals; Poisson over-3.5 probability is about 43.8% versus 39.7% implied by +152.
- Feature rates are strong on both sides: Sabah 1.81 xG for and Slavia 1.79, with 15.0 and 17.8 rolling shots.
- The live XI feed retains both regular keepers and core attackers, including Pokatilov, Mickels, Markovic, Provod and Chory; no major attacking rotation signal.
- The 3.38 projected mean is below 3.5, so the edge is modest and highly variance-sensitive.
- Over 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model projects 3.45 goals and 67.1% for over 2.5.
- Opponent-adjusted xG is strong on both sides: Sabah 1.71 for, Slavia Praha 1.79 for.
- Recent rolling shots average 15.0 for Sabah and 17.8 for Slavia Praha.
- Sabah's lineup has 33 days of rest against Slavia Praha's four, a meaningful freshness disadvantage for the favorite.
- Total Goals under 2.5+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Soccer features are complete through 10/09; the flow call is published as LEAN because the venue signal is stronger than the corroboration.
- Four or more goals loses; an early goal can change the total quickly, and soccer lineups were not posted at the wake.
Questions
Who won Slavia Praha vs. Sabah?
Sabah won 2-0 on Tuesday, Oct 13, 2026.