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FinalStadio Olimpico · Roma
Real Madrid
4–3Final
Roma
Score by period
Team12T
RM134
ROMA123

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match over 3.5 goals 45¢

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Roma's confirmed 3-4-2-1 is built around Gasperini's aggressive man-oriented press, high line, and high wing-backs.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-9 on this game · −5% return

  1. Roma to winLong shot3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Low Tide Line
    • Pinnacle-derived sportsbook probability is 34.5%, also above the Kalshi Roma quote.
    • The projection-to-price gap exceeds 15 points, so unmodeled lineup or news risk remains material.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Roma's home form is 7-3-0 with a +16 goal difference across 10 matches.
    • Roma's opponent-adjusted home xG is 2.20 for and 0.95 against.
    • Real Madrid lead the warehouse Elo rating 1,833 to 1,789 and have an 8-0-2 away record.
    Number Earned
    • Model expected goals are Roma 1.94 and Real Madrid 1.70, with Roma's opponent-adjusted attacking xG at 2.20.
    • Roma's current home sample is 7-3-0 with 22 goals for and six against across 10 matches.
    • Real Madrid lead the Elo rating 1833-1789 and have higher raw away attacking xG, 2.30 to Roma's 2.10 home figure.
  2. AS Roma to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFair Price Pairs, Team Sheet Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Fair Price Pairs
    • Roma’s model inputs include 1.94 expected goals and a home Elo disadvantage of 43.44 points, so the price, not a narrative, is the edge.
    • The feature build is computed through October 11, leaving three days of possible team-news drift.
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • the confirmed 11-man Roma XI includes Donyell Malen (1.02 club xG/90) and Paulo Dybala (10 club starts); Roma's XI attack quality is 2.25.
    • Most likely loss: Real Madrid win or the match draws; ProphetX's 2-way moneyline treats a draw as a loss.
  3. Match over 3.5 goals
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Roma's confirmed 3-4-2-1 is built around Gasperini's aggressive man-oriented press, high line, and high wing-backs.
    • Mourinho's deeper transition approach gives Vinicius and Mbappe space behind Roma's advanced wing-backs and isolated center-backs.
    • Polymarket US charges 45¢, implying 45%; my coaching-based estimate is 52% for four or more goals.
    • Roma's press may instead suppress Madrid's build-up; the preview calls Madrid's transitions hit-or-miss.
  4. Roma spread +1Favorite
    0%Push

    Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX

    Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles lambdas are Roma 1.94, Real Madrid 1.70, with dc_rho -0.05; Pinnacle also quotes this exact -1 rung.
    • Directional coherence passes: Roma's last 10 show 5 wins by 2+, 2 wins by 1 and 3 draws; Real Madrid's last 10 show 4 wins by 2+, 4 by 1 and 2 losses.
    • MODERATE coverage: only 10 xG games per side, and the model disagrees materially with the broader three-way market; the projection may be miscalibrated.
  5. Total Goals (Regular Time) over 3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starting XI returned for both teams; the XI attacking-xG sum is 5.00 (Roma 2.34, Real Madrid 2.66) versus the warehouse model's 3.64 total, a +1.36 delta.
    • Real Madrid start Kylian Mbappé (0.84 xG/90, 10 starts) and Vinícius Júnior (0.37 xG/90, 9 starts); Roma start Donyell Malen (1.02 club xG/90, 10 starts) and Paulo Dybala (0.28 club xG/90, 10 starts).
    • Coverage flags are true for form, xG, ratings and model; the six-match XI-quality read has nine known players for each side.
    • Most likely loss: the match finishes with three or fewer goals despite the attacking personnel.
  6. Total goals under 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10-game xG window for both teams: opponent-adjusted blend gives Roma 1.69, Real Madrid 1.68, total 3.37.
    • Pinnacle same-rung 3.5 is over +110 / under -126; de-vigged under is about 53.9%, below my 56% estimate.
    • Coherence check passes: attacking xG is high, but neither side's 3/4-day rest profile nor pressing data creates a decisive upward tilt.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per side, so this is moderate coverage with a wide error bar.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Over 4.5 Total GoalsLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
  2. Over 3.5 total goals
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warehouse xG rates total 4.39: Roma 2.10, Real Madrid 2.30; Poisson projection is approximately 64% over.
    • The materialized xG sample covers only 10 matches per team and may overstate attacking rates.
  3. Roma moneyline +200
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Roma's home form is 7-3-0 with a 22-6 goal record; the warehouse model's lambdas are 1.94 home and 1.70 away.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; game_stats reports only sidelined counts of 5 for Roma and 8 for Real Madrid, without identities.
  4. Total goals under 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 12% last 7 days
  5. Total goals over 3.5
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted feature lambdas total 3.64; a Poisson translation gives about 49.3% for four or more goals.
    • Both posted XIs are attack-capable and close to recent selections; Roma start Dybala, Soulé and Malen, while Real start Mbappé and Vinícius.
    • XI feed time was 10:52:19 PDT and the ProphetX board time was 10:52:53 PDT, so this is a model projection rather than an unverified stale-line angle.
    • The model's underlying 3.64-goal rate leaves only a modest edge after model and Poisson uncertainty.
  6. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection; own per-side scoring read is Roma 80.7% (2.10 xGF vs Real Madrid 1.19 xGA, 10/10 xG games) and Real Madrid 80.6% (2.30 vs Roma 0.98, 10/10).
    • Those independent reads imply BTTS YES 65.0%, NO 35.0%: a roughly symmetric case, not an asymmetric low-attacker/elite-defense setup.
    • The 65.0% BTTS estimate is a simple independent Poisson blend, while Dixon-Coles is 5.4 points higher; the model disagreement consumes most of the edge.
  7. Match total over 2.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • no verified travel, rest, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shape pillar; this is capped LEAN.
    • the same ladder prices over 1.5 at -640 and over 3.5 at +120, consistent with a high-goal baseline.
    • Preview confirmation is incomplete: Roma shows 9 confirmed starters and Real Madrid 10, so attacking personnel can still change.
  8. Real Madrid spread NO 2.5Favorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent 80 Champions League finals show only 3/80 home-minus-away margins ≤−3; goal-difference mass clusters around 0/1/2.
    • Real Madrid can clear three goals through an early Roma red card, penalty sequence, or finishing outlier.

Questions

Who won Real Madrid vs. Roma?

Real Madrid won 4-3 on Wednesday, Oct 14, 2026.

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