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FinalEstadio La Cartuja de Sevilla · Sevilla
Feyenoord
0–1Final
Real Betis
Score by period
Team12T
FEYE000
RB011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 3.5 total goals 48¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Real Betis home xGF 1.88 / xGA 1.42 (10 gp_with_xg); Feyenoord away xGF 1.86 / xGA 1.01 (10 gp_with_xg).

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-6 on this game · +36% return

  1. total goals under 3.53 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsBench Boss, Team Sheet Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • 10-match style sample: Betis averages 16.7 shots and 2.8 big chances; Feyenoord's 0.58 directness is below Betis's 0.70.
    • Both teams have four rest days and a fixture-congestion flag; the compressed turnaround supports controlled late-game tempo rather than sustained pressing.
    • Feyenoord's 2.21 xG-for and 18.9 shots per match can break the under without a tactical adjustment.
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • Aitor Ruibal is sidelined with a meniscus tear; his recent club sample was 6 starts in 10 matches with 0.20 xG/90.
    • Feyenoord's confirmed XI is also below its baseline: 1.99 attacking xG versus 2.09, a further -0.10 delta.
    • Most likely loss: an early goal creates an open match and Feyenoord, Betis reaches four goals.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-21T11:23:57-07:00; LEAN because ratio is below 10x and the model conflicts.
    • Most likely loss is four or more goals; one early goal can open the match.
  2. Under 3.5 total goals2 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Two Nil Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Real Betis home xGF 1.88 / xGA 1.42 (10 gp_with_xg); Feyenoord away xGF 1.86 / xGA 1.01 (10 gp_with_xg).
    • Kalshi ladder: Over 2.5 0.73, Over 3.5 0.53, Over 4.5 0.33; fitted market-implied total is roughly 3.7, 3.8 goals versus 3.09.
    • Only 10 xG-covered matches for each side, below the desk's 12-match preferred tier, so estimate uncertainty is meaningful.
    Two Nil Pairs
    • lambda-total Poisson/DC mass gives Under 3.5 about 58.8% versus 51.92¢ (-108).
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Betis 1.88 for / 1.42 against; Feyenoord 1.86 / 1.01.
    • Most likely loss is four or more goals; the model still assigns roughly 41.2% to that outcome.
  3. Feyenoord spread +12 models agree
    0%Push

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Long Haul
    Why 2 models like it
    Team Sheet Pairs
    • Confirmed XI coverage is live for both sides; xi_n_known is 9 for Feyenoord and 10 for Betis, with has_xg true and 10-game xG samples.
    • Real Betis’ XI attacking xG is 2.78 versus a six-match usual-XI baseline of 3.32 (-0.53); Feyenoord is 1.99 versus 2.09 (-0.10).
    • Most likely loss: Real Betis wins by two or more, overcoming the lineup downgrade.
    Long Haul
    • no verified Long Haul pillar: both teams have 4 rest days, venue is grass, travel and aggregate state are unrecorded, and the model is not draw-shaped.
    • Half-unit lean only; the web betslip is the contract link priced in this wake.
    • Most likely loss is Real Betis winning by 2 or more; the model estimates that at roughly 11.5%.
  4. Under 4.5 total goalsFavorite2 models agree
    +41%Won

    Taken at 71¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsRegression Pairs, Two Nil Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Regression Pairs
    • Across 10 matches, Betis scored 21 vs 16.98 xG (+0.40/game); Feyenoord scored 34 vs 22.11 xG (+1.19/game).
    • Combined actual scoring is 5.50/game versus 3.91 combined xG, a +1.59 regression gap; both teams have 10/10 xG coverage.
    • Feyenoord's attack can keep converting above xG; five or more goals loses the ticket.
    Two Nil Pairs
    • ProphetX is -220 / 68.75¢; Pinnacle centers the main rung at 3.5 (-116 over / +105 under).
    • The Dixon-Coles goal mass places under 4.5 near 77%, roughly 8 points above ProphetX's 68.75¢ price.
    • Most likely loss is five or more goals, especially after an early breakthrough converts the match into a transition game.
  5. Feyenoord to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +360 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number Earned
    Why 2 models like it
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Warehouse model gives Feyenoord a 49.7% win probability versus +360's 21.7% raw implied price.
    • Model expected goals favor Feyenoord 1.90, 1.36 despite Betis home advantage.
    • Feyenoord has 11 players sidelined versus Betis' three, creating substantial availability uncertainty.
    Number Earned
    • Poisson xG model: Feyenoord win 50.2% from λ 1.90 versus Betis λ 1.36.
    • Current lineup feed confirms both starting XIs; Feyenoord starters rate 7.05 versus Betis 6.96.
    • Feyenoord has 11 players listed sidelined, although the starting XI is confirmed; depth effects remain uncertain.
  6. Feyenoord match winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +380 on FanDuel

    First modelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Feyenoord won its last two competitive matches, 3-2 versus Como and 4-3 at Telstar.
    • Feyenoord's last-five record is 5-0 with a +16 goal differential; its away xG is 2.21 per match.
    • The away price shortened from +420 to +380 at FanDuel, matching the momentum angle.
    • Real Betis won 3 of its last 5 and has a +3 goal differential; the opponent-form gate adds no support.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Feyenoord or Draw double chance
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +120 on FanDuel

    Soccer Default PicksUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Feyenoord's 10-match xG profile is stronger: 2.21 for and 1.15 against versus Betis 1.70 and 1.62.
    • Recent form favors Feyenoord: 5-0 in its last five versus Betis 3-1-1.
    • Confirmed lineups reduce rotation uncertainty; FanDuel offers +120 against a 45.5% raw break-even price.
    • Betis remains the market favorite, with the sharp three-way board assigning roughly 58% to the home win.
  2. Feyenoord @ Real Betis under 4.5 total goalsFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at −270 on DraftKings

    Brewing UCL TotalsDown 10% over 27 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG blend estimates roughly 3.09 goals: Betis 1.45, Feyenoord 1.64.
    • League-phase Matchday 3 has no aggregate deficit, removing a second-leg chase incentive.
    • The model leaves 23.1% probability at five or more goals; an early goal can create a high-variance chase.
  3. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 2.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0-0 at 35'; conditional remaining-goal estimate gives roughly 70% under 2.5.
    • Opp-adjusted xG blend: Betis 1.45 plus Feyenoord 1.64 implies 3.09 pregame goals; live score updates the remainder lower.
    • Both teams have four rest days; only one recorded yellow card and no red-card distortion.
    • Pregame Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 63.4%, opposing the live conditional update.
  4. Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Open PlayUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 3.14 goals: opp-adjusted blend projects 1.45 Betis plus 1.64 Feyenoord, then a small pressing nudge.
    • Both teams have 10 xG-backed matches; moderate coverage, with the short window explicitly widening the error bar.
    • PPDA proxies are 12.64 and 14.06; field tilt is .485 and .570, a mild tempo-up tilt rather than a replacement for xG.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per side; this moderate sample is materially noisier than a 20-plus-game window.
  5. Feyenoord 90-minute winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Feyenoord is 5-0 in its last five; Real Betis is 3-1-1, with form margins of +3.2 versus +0.4.
    • Rolling xG favors Feyenoord: 2.21 away xG per match versus Betis at 1.70.
    • Pinnacle sharply disagrees, pricing Feyenoord at +380; the sharp reference favors Real Betis.
  6. Both Teams To Score NO
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended scoring read is Real Betis 78.0% and Feyenoord 82.5% to score; BTTS-YES ≈64.3%, NO ≈35.7%.
    • This is a symmetric case: both attacks are productive, but each side still has a meaningful blank probability; the call is NO because the market overstates the joint event.
    • Real Betis: 1.88 opp-adjusted xG-for versus Feyenoord 1.15 xG-against; Feyenoord: 1.86 versus Betis 1.62.
    • Both teams score freely on the underlying numbers, so a single goal by each side defeats NO; this is not an asymmetric shutout spot.
  7. DrawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Zonal DecayDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Travel-decay pillar is load-bearing: derived 1,809 km from Feyenoord's modal Stadion Feijenoord to current venue Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla; both sides also carry a congestion flag on four rest days.
    • Venue-matched xG comparison used Real Betis home 1.70 xGF/1.62 xGA against Feyenoord away 2.21/1.15; the model still identifies a small draw-price edge despite Feyenoord's stronger away attacking profile.
    • The 1,809 km figure is a great-circle fatigue proxy, not routed travel; four rest days may blunt the travel effect.
  8. Total goals under 2.5
    +223%Won

    Taken at 31¢ on ProphetX

    XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected goals are 3.34: blended rates of 1.42 for Betis and 1.92 for Feyenoord.
    • Poisson 0-2 goals is 35.2%, above ProphetX's 30.8% break-even at +225.
    • Confirmed XI data refreshed at 10:57:55; the under 2.5 offer remained +225 at the 10:58:34 board read.
    • A 3.34-goal mean makes three or more goals the likeliest losing path.
  9. Real Betis spread NO −1.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current Champions League season 28155 has Real Betis-style home goal differences of +2 or more in 40/135 matches (29.6%); empirical NO estimate is 70.4%.
    • The 135-match distribution is competition-wide, not team-specific; it may transfer poorly to this matchup.

Questions

Who won Feyenoord vs. Real Betis?

Real Betis won 1-0 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.

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