FinalEstádio José Alvalade · Lisboa
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LASK | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| SC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLASK spread +2 62¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Confirmed XI coverage is live: LASK has 10 known starters, Sporting CP 9; both teams have xG coverage, and six prior fixtures supplied lineup baselines.
Team Sheet PairsEven this season · 351 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-7 on this game · +26% return
- total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsBench Boss, XI Delta +1Why 3 models like it
Bench Boss- 8 rest days for Sporting CP versus 4 for congested LASK supports the home coach controlling tempo after the opening phase.
- Fresh soccer_query confirms both 4-3-3 starting XIs; the rested home side can use possession and game-state management against LASK’s direct approach.
- LASK averages 20.4 shots and 6.1 shots on target in its recent away sample; directness can create an early goal.
XI Delta- Poisson blend of supplied home/away xG rates gives λ≈2.88 and P(0, 2 goals)≈45%.
- Sporting's XI repeats all 11 starters from the recent Lens match; LASK retains roughly 8.4 of its average last-five starters, so no major attacking rotation is evident.
- The xG blend implies a high 2.88-goal mean, so three or more goals remains the likeliest single failure path.
Long Haul- no qualifying decay pillar: LASK has 4 rest days versus Sporting's 8, but the desk threshold is under 4 days plus 1,500+ km.
- Confirmed-XI lookup shows 11 starters for both LASK and Sporting CP before pricing; no lineup uncertainty remains.
- The feature build is through October 17, and the model is not a validated market-calibration layer.
- LASK spread +2+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI coverage is live: LASK has 10 known starters, Sporting CP 9; both teams have xG coverage, and six prior fixtures supplied lineup baselines.
- The current XI diverges materially from those baselines: Sporting starts Kaique only 1/6 prior matches and João Simões 1/3; LASK starts Kalajdzic, Danek and Dibango only 2/6 each.
- Current starter attack quality favors the protection: LASK XI attacking xG is 2.26 versus Sporting CP's 2.04; Kalajdzic contributes 0.36 xG/90 and 0.91 big chances created/90.
- Most likely loss: Sporting CP wins by three or more despite LASK's attacking XI.
- LASK +2 spread+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sporting scored 25 goals versus 14.79 xG: 2.50 actual versus 1.48 xG, a +1.02 per-match gap over 10.
- LASK scored 22 versus 20.67 xG: 2.20 actual versus 2.07 xG, only a +0.13 gap over 10.
- Opponent-adjusted xGF favors LASK 2.07 to Sporting 1.57; the warehouse model makes LASK the 42.5% 90-minute side.
- Most likely loss is Sporting's finishing surge persisting into a three-goal win; the +1.02 gap may not regress today.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- the adjacent under 3.5 and under 4.5 rungs are 46.51 and 66.67 cents; the under 2.5 price is the clear ladder outlier versus the model mass.
- Direct ProphetX board read at 11:25:22 PDT; no player-specific claim is required, so the partial XI confirmation is not used as a timing edge.
- Three or more goals loses; the same DC fit assigns about 49.2% to that tail.
- Under 4.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Sporting CP 1.57 for / 0.97 against; LASK 2.07 for / 1.02 against.
- Starting XIs are not posted; an unexpected striker or goalkeeper change could move the fitted lambdas.
- Sporting CP spread NO −1.5+52%Won
Taken at 66¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adj xG inputs: Sporting home xGF 1.57 / home xGA 0.97; LASK away xGF 2.07 / away xGA 1.02; feature lambdas 1.19 / 1.45.
- Sporting can still score twice after 1-1; the broad 30-match sample produced home margins of +2 or better in 11/30 matches.
Show all 9 picks
- Match under 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total is 2.82 goals versus an approximately 3.8-goal Poisson-equivalent market mean at the 3.5 rung.
- Pinnacle is +105 on under 3.5, devigging to about 47.4% versus Kalshi NO at 48c.
- LASK's 2.07 away xGF and Sporting's 1.57 home xGF leave meaningful 4+ goal upside.
- LASK+809%Won
Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: Sporting CP 30.4% win, draw 27.1%, LASK 42.5%.
- Model xG favors LASK 1.45, 1.19 despite Sporting's home designation.
- Sporting's 7-3-0 home form is counterbalanced by LASK's stronger model and attacking profile.
- The warehouse model sharply conflicts with the broader Sporting-favorite market.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: Sporting scoring read 74.9% (1.57 opp-adjusted xGF versus LASK 1.22 xGA); LASK read 76.2% (2.07 versus Sporting 0.99).
- Pinnacle BTTS prices devig to roughly 38.2% NO; own projection is 42.9% NO versus Kalshi's 39¢. Edge class: PROJECTION; band: LEAN.
- Pinnacle's devigged NO probability is only about 38.2%, directly against the 42.9% desk estimate.
Questions
Who won LASK vs. Sporting CP?
LASK won 3-2 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.