FinalStadio Diego Armando Maradona · Napoli
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOD | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| NAPO | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals over 3.5 42¢
Why XI Delta likes it: 4.04 combined rolling xG: Napoli 1.82, Bodø / Glimt 2.23.
XI DeltaUp 4% return this season · 100 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-11 on this game · −47% return
- Bodø / Glimt to win−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
6 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Regression Pairs +4Why 6 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed XIs diverge sharply from the prior matches: Bodø changed 5 starters and Napoli changed 6.
- The warehouse model still gives Bodø / Glimt a 50.5% 90-minute win probability, far above the 25.64¢ contract.
- Most likely loss: the match draws; this 2-way contract loses on a draw rather than pushing.
Regression Pairs- Over 10 fully covered competitive matches, Bodø / Glimt has 2.23 xGF and 1.04 xGA per match; Napoli has 1.82 and 1.55.
- ProphetX's Napoli -1 spread (+128) and Napoli 90-minute -132 conflict with the xG process direction, which favors Bodø / Glimt.
- No confirmed XI; both teams have only 3 rest days, with 5 and 7 players sidelined in the preview.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Bodø / Glimt are 8-0-2 in the 10-match away sample, with a 22-14 goal difference.
- Elo favors Bodø / Glimt 1,870 to 1,647; its opponent-adjusted xG against is 0.84 versus Napoli's 1.27.
- The model-market gap is extreme; league-strength translation or model miss is the central risk.
Long Haul- no verified Long Haul decay pillar; warehouse 90-minute away-win model is 50.5% (λ Napoli 1.16, Bodø / Glimt 1.75).
- the distinct 3-way board prices Bodø / Glimt 90-minute win at +405; this 2-way contract makes a draw a loss.
- Most likely loss: a draw or Napoli win; the 2-way contract offers no draw protection.
- Total goals over 3.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsXI Delta, Team Sheet PairsWhy 2 models like it
XI Delta- 4.04 combined rolling xG: Napoli 1.82, Bodø / Glimt 2.23.
- Poisson conversion of that xG gives approximately 57.5% for four-plus goals versus ProphetX's 41.67¢ quote.
- The xG inputs are rolling cross-competition estimates, not a matchup-specific simulation.
Team Sheet Pairs- Both starting XIs are confirmed with 11 starters; lineup quality totals 2.43 Bodø plus 3.19 Napoli attacking xG.
- Bodø returns Jens Petter Hauge (0.40 xG/90, 0.48 big chances created/90) and Andreas Helmersen (0.58 xG/90) to the XI.
- Most likely loss: one attack blanks and the match finishes 0-3 or lower.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- model total lambda is 2.91 (Napoli 1.16 + Bodø / Glimt 1.75); ladder implies roughly 3.2.
- dc_rho is -0.05; rest is three days each, with both teams flagged for congestion.
- Napoli and Bodø / Glimt starting XIs are not posted; a striker or goalkeeper change can move the goal mass.
- Match under 2.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- opponent-adjusted xG gives Napoli 1.39 and Bodø / Glimt 1.59; expected total 2.98.
- Pinnacle has only an off-rung 3.0 total, so no same-rung sharp comparison is used.
- The model-market mean gap is only about 0.2 goals; ordinary soccer variance around 2.5 goals can erase the lean.
- Bodø / Glimt YES to win−100%Lost
Taken at 20¢ on Kalshi
First modelDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bodø / Glimt won its last two competitive matches: Dortmund 1-0 and HamKam 2-0.
- Napoli has no win in its last two, losing to Villarreal and Venezia.
- The underdog price shortened from roughly 19.5¢ to 20¢ as the market recognized recent momentum.
- Seven Bodø / Glimt players are listed sidelined; the lineup is confirmed but core continuity remains uncertain.
- Under 3.5 regular-time goals−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 10-game xG window each: opp-adjusted matchup blend is 2.98 expected goals.
- PPDA 16.18/13.33 and field tilt .533/.618 nudge the build to 3.08, still below 3.5.
- Dixon-Coles over 2.5 is 55.6%, confirming a near-three-goal baseline; fair under 3.5 is 61.5%.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per side; this moderate sample has a wider error bar than deep-season coverage.
Show all 9 picks
- BTTS+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Napoli scoring read 77.4%; Bodø / Glimt 82.4%, a symmetric both-sides-score profile.
- no sportsbook BTTS quote; alternate occurrence feeds were unserved, so Kalshi is the executable reference.
- No confirmed XI or late availability feed; either side losing a key attacker could erase the slim projection edge.
- Bodø / Glimt spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Same-season Champions League sample: away side won by 2+ in 17 of 126 matches (13.5%).
- Pinnacle only posted Napoli -0.75, a different rung; no sharp same-rung price used.
- Only 17 away-by-2 outcomes in the 126-match sample; the 5.5-point residual edge is exploratory.
- Total goals over 2.5+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The 3.19x imbalance clears the LEAN threshold. ProphetX board was pulled at 2026-10-20T11:28:47-07:00.
- The warehouse has real coverage: 10 xG matches per side, model lambdas 1.16 home and 1.75 away. The flow signal is the position; no sportsbook or prediction-market reference is used.
- Most likely loss: regular-time scoring stops at two goals or fewer.
Questions
Who won Bodø / Glimt vs. Napoli?
Napoli won 4-3 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.