FinalBakı Olimpiya Stadionu · Baku
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BD | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| SABA | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 2.5 regular-time goals 68¢
Why XI Delta likes it: Team goal rates are 2.1 for Sabah and 2.3 for Dortmund, a 4.4-goal combined scoring baseline.
XI DeltaUp 4% return this season · 100 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-5 on this game · −2% return
- Sabah spread +10%Push
Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsFair Price Pairs, Long HaulWhy 2 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Dixon-Coles cover probability 38.4% versus ProphetX implied 32.3%; gap +6.1 points.
- The ±1 spread is the board’s main rung, not the alternate ±2; price is inside the -250 to +300 band.
- Most likely loss: Dortmund wins by two or more; the model gives Sabah win/draw only 38.4%.
Long Haul- confirmed 3 rest days for Dortmund versus 7 for Sabah, plus a derived ~3,500 km Dortmund-to-Baku road trip; this clears the >1,500 km / <4-day decay pillar.
- Both XIs are posted: 11 starters each, so the fatigue read is not exposed to an unconfirmed away rotation.
- Rest and travel are schedule proxies, not measured fatigue; Dortmund's confirmed XI could still execute efficiently.
- Over 2.5 regular-time goals+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on ProphetX
XI DeltaUp 138% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Team goal rates are 2.1 for Sabah and 2.3 for Dortmund, a 4.4-goal combined scoring baseline.
- Confirmed XIs retain continuity: 10 of 11 current starters for each team appeared in at least three of that side's previous five lineups.
- The xG-to-Poisson conversion is a compact projection, not a competition-specific calibrated model.
- Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 total goals+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- lambdas are Sabah 0.94 and Dortmund 2.01; dc_rho -0.05; model total expectation 2.95 and P(under 3.5) ≈65.8%.
- xG coverage is 6 matches for each side: Sabah oppadj xGF/xGA 1.59/1.63; Dortmund 1.71/0.80.
- The ladder has over 2.5 at 67.74c and over 3.5 at 44.84c; it does not fully absorb the model's lower goal mass.
- The xG sample is thin at 6 matches per side, so the 65.8% projection has meaningful estimation error.
- Match total under 3.5 goals+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda projection totals 2.95 goals; Poisson under 3.5 is approximately 65.8%.
- Kalshi NO cost is 54c, an approximately 11.8-point gap versus the warehouse projection.
- Same-line sportsbook probability implies 53.2% under; BetOnline is the captured sharp-chain reference and agrees directionally.
- Kalshi over probability rose from 44.5c to 46.5c in the final 37 minutes, moving against the under.
- Total goals over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dortmund's confirmed XI carries 2.26 attacking xG and Sabah's 1.40, a 3.66 combined lineup attack baseline.
- Guirassy starts for Dortmund (0.81 xG/90, 0.56 big chances created/90); Mickels starts for Sabah (0.52 xG/90).
- Most likely loss: Dortmund controls the match but Sabah contributes little, leaving the total at three or fewer.
- Borussia Dortmund spread −2−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dortmund’s confirmed XI rates 2.26 attacking xG versus Sabah’s 1.40, a +0.86 lineup-quality gap.
- Serhou Guirassy starts for Dortmund with 0.81 xG/90 and 0.56 big-chances-created/90 across the six-match sample.
- Warehouse model projects 2.01 Dortmund goals and 0.94 Sabah goals, so a two-goal margin is not a certainty.
Show all 12 picks
- Sabah−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sabah is 7-0-3 at home in the preview sample, while Dortmund is dealing with eight sidelined players and three days' rest.
- Dortmund remains the materially stronger rated side: 1773 Elo versus Sabah's 1639.
- BTTS+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle BTTS -130/+100 devigs to about 53.1% YES; my projection is roughly 59%.
- Sabah's six-match xG sample is only the coverage minimum, so its 71% scoring read is fragile.
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Coverage gate is complete: form, xG, ratings and model probabilities are true; lambdas are 0.94 home and 2.01 away.
- Both XIs are unconfirmed; Dortmund's 3-day rest and congestion cannot be used as a structural pillar, and rotation could raise scoring.
- Borussia Dortmund spread NO 1.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas are Sabah 0.94 and Dortmund 2.01; Dortmund 2+ goals margin estimates about 38%, so NO is about 62%.
- Pinnacle's same-rung board is roughly 53% Dortmund -1.5; named edge class is PROJECTION, band LEAN.
- Sabah spread +2+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 9:08:38 AM. Both spread sides quote three levels.
- Most likely loss: Dortmund wins by three or more.
- Sabah to win−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The model's fair price is approximately 16.5¢, implying about 6.5 probability points of gross edge before exchange costs.
- Sabah is 7-0-3 in its 10 home-form matches; Dortmund is 7-2-1 in its 10 away-form matches.
- Adjusted xG is relatively close: Sabah 1.59 home xG for versus Dortmund 1.71 away xG for, despite the market's heavy Dortmund lean.
- The same game's DraftKings three-way market makes Dortmund a strong favorite, and Kalshi's Dortmund contract is priced near 76¢.
Questions
Who won Borussia Dortmund vs. Sabah?
Borussia Dortmund won 2-1 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.