FinalŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadium · İstanbul
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLAV | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| FENE | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSlavia Praha +1.5 −158
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Slavia's 8.91 PPDA versus Fenerbahçe's 11.81 indicates the stronger pressing scheme.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −25% return
- Slavia Praha to win−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSnapp Decision of the Day, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Snapp Decision of the Day- Warehouse Dixon-Coles model makes Slavia the slight xG favorite: 1.67 expected goals to Fenerbahçe's 1.60.
- Opponent-adjusted xG gives Slavia 1.95 for and 1.00 against; its away form is 5-3-2 with a 17-9 goal difference.
- The sportsbook three-way market still assigns only about 14.7% devigged probability to Slavia, a major model-market disagreement.
Number Earned- Model away win probability 39.4%; conservative haircut to 32% after model-market disagreement.
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Slavia 1.95 away versus Fenerbahçe 2.22 home; non-penalty xG favors Slavia 2.36 to 1.93.
- The model's 39.4% away estimate sharply conflicts with the market's roughly 15% devigged estimate; the model could be misspecified.
- Slavia Praha +1.5+63%Won
Taken at −158 on FanDuel
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Slavia's 8.91 PPDA versus Fenerbahçe's 11.81 indicates the stronger pressing scheme.
- Slavia leads field tilt 0.58 to 0.47, supporting territorial resistance rather than a two-goal defeat.
- FanDuel's -158 implies roughly 61.2%; the tactical margin protection warrants a materially higher estimate.
- Fenerbahçe has home advantage and a live starting XI with substantial defensive experience.
- Total goals under 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long HaulDown 21% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Slavia's derived away travel is approximately 1,516 km on only 3 rest days, the Long Haul decay pillar.
- Warehouse lambdas total 3.26; a Poisson read gives approximately 58.9% for 0, 3 goals before the travel adjustment.
- Both lineup feeds show 11 starters for each side, so the fatigue read is not exposed to an unconfirmed XI rotation.
- Most likely loss: four or more goals; the baseline lambda still leaves roughly 41.1% for 4+.
- Total goals over 3.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Board as_of_pt 8:59:55 AM. Sharp reference is Pinnacle over 3.2 at -113, off the traded 3.5 line and context only.
- Most likely loss: the match lands on 3 goals; over 3.5 needs four.
Questions
Who won Slavia Praha vs. Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe won 2-2 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.