FinalTottenham Hotspur Stadium · London
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASTO | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| TOTT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAston Villa first team to score 37¢
Why First Strike likes it: lambda_home 1.12 and lambda_away 1.29 produce adjusted Aston Villa first-score probability 48.6%.
First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-9 on this game · +28% return
- Aston Villa to win+194%Won
Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsFair Price Pairs, Snapp Decision of the Day +1Why 3 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Starting XIs are unposted, so this is PROJECTION only; no timing adjustment is claimed.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Villa 1.65 to Tottenham's 1.34.
- Villa's away form is 5-1-4 with 16 points; Tottenham's home form is 3-3-4 with 12.
- Tottenham has home advantage and one extra rest day; both teams carry congestion flags.
Number Earned- Model fair line is approximately +152, leaving a 14.63-point probability edge.
- Aston Villa leads opponent-adjusted xG: 1.65 for versus Tottenham's 1.34.
- Starting lineups are not yet published; the lineup feed returned zero rows.
- Match total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Opponent-adjusted combination gives expected goals 2.62 versus market-implied approximately 3.08 from Over 2.5 at 0.59.
- Both coverage counts are below the desk's preferred 12-game tier; the 2.62 versus 3.08 gap is only 0.46 goals.
Deep Book- LEAN only: the 4.38x ratio is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The U2.5 rung implies roughly a 2.9-goal Poisson expectation, above the model's 2.41; adjacent U1.5/U3.5/U4.5 prices also leave the model's lower-tail mass underpaid.
- Aston Villa's 1.65 opponent-adjusted xGF and Tottenham's keeper figure of -0.35 support a fast scoring path.
- Match total under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 56.8% pregame under-2.5 estimate versus a 41c executable contract
- Tottenham's 58.6% possession and 10.48 PPDA point to controlled territorial play, not chaos
- Villa's 46.7% possession, 0.71 directness ratio, and five counterattacks per 10 suggest selective transition attacks
- De Zerbi's high line and Villa's transition threat can turn one turnover into an early goal
- Aston Villa first team to score+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- lambda_home 1.12 and lambda_away 1.29 produce adjusted Aston Villa first-score probability 48.6%.
- Pinnacle total 2.8 at -106/-104 is an independent sharp scoring anchor; it does not justify Tottenham’s 58c FTTS price.
- No Goal is 5.5c, exactly complementing Kalshi Over 0.5 at 94.5c; the exact identity offers no competing claim.
- Starting XIs are not posted; seven Tottenham and five Aston Villa sidelined players are counted, but identities are unknown.
- Aston Villa win+317%Won
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Villa's Elo is 1814 versus Tottenham's 1603; recent PPG is 1.6 versus 1.2.
- REFERENCE on the exact 3-way contract; global flow maps cleanly to Aston Villa win YES.
- The 15.63-point gap is unusually large; the Pinnacle 2-way reference still prices Villa near +323.
Show all 11 picks
- Match total under 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle’s live sharp reference is under 2.8 at -104, directionally agreeing; Kalshi total movement is quiet at 0.0.
- Three or more goals loses; an early goal or defensive error can break the low-total script.
- Aston Villa spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Full xG coverage: Tottenham inputs 1.34/1.16 → λH 1.12; Villa 1.65/1.08 → λA 1.29; min sample 9 matches.
- Current Premier League season: Villa won by 2+ in 5 of 41 matches (12.2%), directionally consistent with a lumpy margin ladder.
- No independent sharp price exists on this exact +1.5 Villa rung; the self-reference cap limits this to LEAN.
- Aston Villa wins 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home is Tottenham Hotspur; model key 0-2 is the contract “Aston Villa wins 2-0.”
- Reference: NO REFERENCE. Correct-score contracts have no sharp-book anchor; the fitted distribution is direct.
- Tottenham has 7 sidelined and Aston Villa 5; starting XIs are not posted.
- Draw to win−100%Lost
Taken at +270 on FanDuel
Zonal DecayDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Draw mispricing pillar, PPDA 10.48/13.68 and field tilt 58.7%/44.9% show a competitive, non-one-way matchup.
- Venue-matched xG: Villa away 1.46 xGF/1.40 xGA; Spurs home 1.31 xGF/1.23 xGA.
- Confirmed XIs are listed by Sky Sports; form is Villa 5-1-4, Spurs 3-3-4 across 10 competitive matches.
- Villa's 1814 Elo versus Tottenham's 1603 gives the away side a substantial rating edge; draw loses if that gap converts.
- BTTS NO−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Home scoring read 74.6%: λ≈1.37 from Spurs oppadj xGF 1.34 and Villa xGA 1.40, with 9, 10 xG matches.
- Away scoring read 76.2%: λ≈1.44 from Villa oppadj xGF 1.65 and Spurs xGA 1.22, with 9, 10 xG matches.
- Independent combination gives BTTS YES 56.8%, NO 43.2%: a symmetric both-sides-score profile, not an asymmetric BTTS-NO setup.
- Starting XIs and late availability were not independently confirmed; one attacking absence or surprise return could move either scoring probability.
Questions
Who won Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur?
Aston Villa won 3-2 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.