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FinalSt. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
Hull City
1–2Final
Newcastle United
Score by period
Team12T
HULL011
NEWC202

How the picks did

Models went 0-10 on this game · −100% return

  1. Match total goals under 2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG: Newcastle xGF 1.52/xGA 1.44 (10 gp each); Hull xGF 1.23/xGA 1.09 (10 gp each).
    • Projected total 2.64 goals versus the Kalshi ladder's roughly 3.0-goal implied mean.
    • Minimum xG coverage is 10 games per side, below the preferred 12-game tier.
    Deep Book
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-19T05:26:50-07:00; the quoted fill is +140, represented as 41.67 cents in the structured price.
    • Lineups are not posted. A late attacking personnel change can invalidate the low-total read.
  2. Hull City first team to scoreHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Late-goal cohort: 546 of 985 goals after halftime, 55.4% versus 50.0% neutral; +0.6 points No-Goal correction leaves 47.2%.
    • Pinnacle total anchor is 2.8 goals, Over -118; feature coverage is 10 matches per team with usable model flags.
    • No-Goal identity is coherent: FTTS No Goal 3.5c versus 1−Over 0.5 at 4.5c; only a 1.0-point gap.
  3. Hull City +1 spread
    0%Push

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
  4. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +28100

    Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX confirmed $2,838 offered at Hull under 2.5 and $622 at Everton under 3.5; both clear the $300 gate and the -250/+300 band.
    • Everton-Ipswich reaches four goals if the match becomes open; both teams carry recent congestion flags and only three/four rest days.
  5. Under 2.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted xG supports restraint: Newcastle 1.52 xGF/1.44 xGA; Hull 1.23 xGF/1.09 xGA.
    • Starting XIs are not posted; a late striker or goalkeeper change could move the fitted lambdas.
  6. Match total under 2.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection favours under; Kalshi under is the placement; Pinnacle under agrees; five-minute momentum is flat.
    • Only 10 xG-backed matches per team support the projection, so model error remains material.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Hull City winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi

    Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Hull's last 10: 21 points (6-3-1); Newcastle's xG differential is -0.24 per match.
    • Four independently scored soccer-positive cohort survivors support Hull; direct mapping is Hull win to this YES contract.
    • The gap exceeds the 15-point warning threshold; xG/form rechecks support Hull, but the rating-model conflict remains.
  2. Hull City spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • λ Newcastle 1.23, Hull 1.31; both xG samples cover 10 matches.
    • Pinnacle posts -1 only, so it is not used as a same-rung comparison; edge class is PROJECTION.
    • Hull margin 2+ occurred only 5 of 41 same-season Premier League matches in the directional sample.
  3. Hull City wins 1-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home is Newcastle United; model key 0-1 is the contract “Hull City wins 1-0”.
    • Model lambdas are Newcastle 1.23 and Hull 1.31; 0-1 is the second top-k score.
    • One exact score loses to every other final score.
  4. Both Teams To Score NO
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; simple attack/defense blend gives Newcastle scoring 74.0% and Hull scoring 76.4%, for BTTS-YES 56.6% and NO 43.4%.
    • Both sides have 10 XG matches; Newcastle 1.52 oppadj xGF vs Hull 1.17 xGA, Hull 1.23 oppadj xGF vs Newcastle 1.66 xGA.
    • This is broadly symmetric scoring, not a strong weak-attacker-versus-tight-defense setup; the NO lean is therefore small.
    • Newcastle's opponent clean-sheet rate is 60%, but its 1.66 xGA is not a genuinely tight-defense read; those signals conflict.

Questions

Who won Hull City vs. Newcastle United?

Newcastle United won 2-1 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.

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