FinalVitality Stadium · Bournemouth
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIV | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLiverpool FC first team to score 54¢
Why First Strike likes it: Kalshi FTTS midpoint is 53.0c; model-minus-midpoint edge is +5.9 points.
First StrikeUp 2% return this season · 212 picksLongshots
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-3 on this game · +43% return
- Liverpool to win+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- All model coverage flags are true; both clubs have 10 competitive matches in the feature window.
- Liverpool’s model edge is supported by a -17.23 home-minus-away Elo differential and 0.60 away field tilt.
- The model still assigns 22.0% to a draw and 23.9% to a Bournemouth win.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Model expected goals favor Liverpool 2.08, 1.34.
- Opponent-adjusted xG defense favors Liverpool 0.98 allowed versus Bournemouth's 1.60.
- Model features were computed through 2025-12-30, materially stale for this September fixture.
- Liverpool FC first team to score+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Kalshi FTTS midpoint is 53.0c; model-minus-midpoint edge is +5.9 points.
- Pinnacle total is 3.0 goals at Over -121, an independent high-goal anchor consistent with the race projection.
- Hazard sample: 2,410 goals across 824 fixtures; late 76-90 bucket had 528 goals versus 321 in 0-15. I applied a small late-open correction; it does not drive the claim.
- FTTS Liverpool spread is 2c; the market is thinner than the main game contract.
- Over 1.5 1H goals scored+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Half LightDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles total 3.42 and that measured split imply E[1H]≈0.95; P(1H under 1.5)≈75.5%, versus a 58c NO price.
- RECOMMENDED. Split incoherence is approximately 0.50 expected goals after the Dixon-Coles tie-break.
- The 2H ladder is not clean: its first two rungs have 6c spreads, so it cannot independently confirm the split.
- 2-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +32600
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG supports the split: Bournemouth/Liverpool total attack-defense inputs imply 3.42 goals; Fulham/Manchester United imply 2.94.
- Most likely loss: Fulham, Manchester United reaches 3+ goals, defeating the under leg.
- Over 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- λhome 1.34, λaway 2.08, dc_rho -0.05; implied mean is 3.42 goals.
- Opponent-adjusted xG-for totals 3.61: Bournemouth 1.85, Liverpool 1.76; both sides have 10 qualifying matches.
- Over 3.5 loses at 0-0 through 3-0; the model still assigns substantial low-score mass.
- Both teams to score NO+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bournemouth scoring read 79.2%; Liverpool scoring read 74.9%, each from 10 xG matches.
- Symmetric BTTS case, but the blended per-side product gives BTTS-YES 59.3% and NO 40.7%.
- The simple attack/defense blend is not a full dependence or finishing model; BTTS-YES remains plausible at 59.3%.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals under 3.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kalshi ladder implies roughly 3.3 goals: Over 2.5 midpoint 0.65 and Over 3.5 midpoint 0.42.
- A Liverpool transition-heavy performance or early goal can push this match to four goals; the edge is modest and variance remains material.
- Liverpool spread −10%Push
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles scoreline grid gives Liverpool -1 cover probability 32.7% (goals margin greater than one); ProphetX implies 29.4% at +240: +3.3 points.
- LEAN edge: the 3.3-point gap is close to the desk's noise boundary, so match variance dominates.
- Liverpool spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent 46-match 2026 EPL sample has 14 draws, 18 one-goal margins, and only 5 two-goal margins, supporting a lumpy margin read.
- This is self-referenced because Pinnacle's +0.25 handicap is a different rung and cannot be used as a sharp comparison.
Questions
Who won Liverpool vs. AFC Bournemouth?
Liverpool won 1-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.