FinalHill Dickinson Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPSW | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EVER | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTotal goals under 3.5 67¢
Why Bench Boss likes it: rest/pace: Everton has 3 rest days and Ipswich 4; both carry a confirmed fixture-congestion flag, favoring managed tempo.
Bench BossUp 2% return this season · 234 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −18% return
- Total goals under 3.5+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- rest/pace: Everton has 3 rest days and Ipswich 4; both carry a confirmed fixture-congestion flag, favoring managed tempo.
- Both confirmed XIs use a 4-2-3-1 shape; no unresolved personnel flip undermines the pre-match coaching read.
- 10-match samples: Everton home xG 1.36 for/1.41 against; Ipswich away 1.51/1.35; warehouse model total λ is 2.63.
- Most likely loss: an early goal opens transition play and the match reaches four goals.
- Ipswich Town first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- λ Everton 1.43; λ Ipswich 1.35; corrected Ipswich first-goal probability 45.5%.
- Opponent-adjusted xGF: Ipswich 1.60, Everton 1.52; both sides have 10 xG matches.
- Goal counts by 15-minute bucket: 478, 462, 617, 625, 516, 746; 76, 90 ran 30% above the six-bin mean.
- Aggregate late hazard does not identify the stronger late scorer; side-specific correction is unknown.
- Match under 2.5 goals+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
ParallaxDown 60% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under cost was about 46¢ roughly an hour earlier and is 45¢ now: movement widened, rather than closed, the disagreement.
- Three or more goals loses; an early goal, penalty or red card can break the under quickly.
- 2-leg parlay−100%Lost
Taken at +28100
Two Nil PairsUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX confirmed $2,838 offered at Hull under 2.5 and $622 at Everton under 3.5; both clear the $300 gate and the -250/+300 band.
- Everton-Ipswich reaches four goals if the match becomes open; both teams carry recent congestion flags and only three/four rest days.
- Ipswich Town to win−100%Lost
Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lean classification: the captured Pinnacle reference also prices Ipswich Town at +345, supporting the model-side direction.
- The feature snapshot was computed through September 16 and starting XIs were not yet posted; late lineup news is unknown.
- Everton spread NO 1.5+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Oppadj inputs: Everton xGF 1.52 / Ipswich xGA 1.31; Ipswich xGF 1.60 / Everton xGA 1.17; lambdas 1.43, 1.35.
- Dixon-Coles cross-check gives Everton over 1.5 at 18.3%, so NO fair probability is 81.7% versus a 72¢ entry.
- This is venue self-reference: Pinnacle’s -0.75 handicap is a different rung and is not used as a sharp comparison.
Show all 8 picks
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XI quality baseline uses 10 prior fixtures; Everton known XI 10, Ipswich 9; both starting XIs confirmed.
- Starting-XI attacking xG: Everton 2.01 vs usual 1.80 (+0.21), Ipswich 1.70 vs usual 2.13 (-0.43); net change is -0.22.
- pre-lineup ProphetX history was 68.75¢ (about -220); current under is 67.21¢ (-205), so this is projection, not an unchanged TIMING edge.
- Most likely loss: Everton's improved attacking XI converts early and forces an open match.
- Both teams to score−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Everton P(score) 76.6% and Ipswich P(score) 77.2% from paired xG rates; this is a symmetric both-sides-score case.
- Both teams have only 10 xG-backed matches; rolling and cross-competition form can be noisy.
Questions
Who won Ipswich Town vs. Everton?
Everton won 1-0 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.