FinalElland Road · Leeds
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRYS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LEED | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonLeeds United wins by more than 1.5 goals NO 68¢
Why Handicap likes it: Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.86 home and 1.82 away estimate Leeds winning by 2+ at 21.3%; NO fair probability is 78.7%, a 10.7-point disagreement.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-7 on this game · −64% return
- Crystal Palace to win−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsFair Price Pairs, Low Tide Line +2Why 4 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Coverage is clean: has_xg and has_model_p are true; xG coverage is 10 matches for Leeds and 10 for Crystal Palace.
- Leeds can win or draw; either result loses this 2-way Crystal Palace contract.
Low Tide Line- Coverage is complete: model, form, xG and ratings flags are true; 10 competitive matches, zero friendlies.
- Recent form and xG favor Leeds: 5-3-2 and -0.06 xG differential versus Palace 4-1-5 and -0.52.
Long Haul- Leeds' home xGA is 1.64 versus Palace's away xGA of 1.33; Palace's defensive profile supports a live away-win path.
- Both XIs are unposted, so Palace could rotate after only 3 rest days and erase the model-only lean.
Number Earned- Venue form: Palace away 15 goals in 10; Leeds home conceded 10 in 10.
- Current xG: Palace 1.32 for and 1.83 against; Leeds 1.64 for and 1.70 against.
- Leeds have the stronger current venue record: 5-2-3 at home versus Palace 4-1-5 away.
- Match total goals over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 12% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected total 3.21 goals: Leeds attack/Palace defense (2.00 + 1.26)/2 and Palace attack/Leeds defense (1.76 + 1.40)/2.
- A 3.21-goal Poisson approximation gives about 62% for Over 2.5 versus Kalshi's raw YES probability 0.55 (55¢), roughly a 7-point model edge.
- The 10-match xG samples are below the desk's preferred 12-game tier; coverage passes, but the estimate remains less stable.
- Crystal Palace first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Opposition-adjusted rates support a near-even race: Leeds xGF 2.00 and xGA 1.40; Palace xGF 1.76 and xGA 1.26.
- Pinnacle independently quotes a 2.8-goal total, +100 over and -110 under; this anchors a high-goal environment rather than the FTTS split.
- FTTS No Goal is 4.5c versus 5.5% implied by the Over 0.5 ladder complement; the 1-point gap is within the combined 2-cent spreads.
- Starting XIs were not posted in the warehouse; Palace has 9 sidelined players in the count field and Leeds has 4.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- independent read gives Leeds 81.7% and Crystal Palace 78.5% to score; BTTS 64.1%.
- Symmetric BTTS case: both attacks clear 1.3 xG-for and both opposing defenses allow at least 1.7 xGA in the 10-match sample.
- Coverage is 10/10 xG matches for each side; opp-adjusted xGF is Leeds 1.56 and Palace 1.38.
- The xG sample is only 10 matches and may include cross-competition form; regression can erase the projection gap.
- Leeds United wins by more than 1.5 goals NO+47%Won
Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambdas 1.86 home and 1.82 away estimate Leeds winning by 2+ at 21.3%; NO fair probability is 78.7%, a 10.7-point disagreement.
- Current-season Premier League sample: 14/46 draws, 18/46 one-goal margins, 5/46 two-goal margins, and 9/46 margins of 3+; the ladder is materially lumpy.
- Leeds' slate moneyline was -140, materially more favorable than the near-even lambda matchup, which is contrary market evidence.
- Crystal Palace spread +1+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
Show all 7 picks
- Crystal Palace wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Leeds United; model key 1-2 maps to the contract “Crystal Palace wins 2-1”.
- Balanced lambdas (Leeds 1.86, Crystal Palace 1.82) support a competitive two-goal shape; 1-2 ranks third in the model top-k.
- Exact-score variance is high; 1-1 and 2-1 are both more likely model outcomes.
Questions
Who won Crystal Palace vs. Leeds United?
Leeds United won 0-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.