FinalEstadio de Mendizorroza · Gasteiz
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATLE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DA | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 2.5 Total Goals 50¢
Why Two Nil Pairs likes it: no BTTS-shaped market and no adjacent total rung were listed; totals-only for this event.
Two Nil PairsDown 6% this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-9 on this game · −72% return
- Deportivo Alavés to win−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsFair Price Pairs, Low Tide Line +1Why 3 models like it
Fair Price Pairs- Pinnacle's 3-way price is context only; no cross-contract comparison.
- ProphetX +255 offers 719.95 dollars at the quoted price, clearing the 300-dollar gate; price band passes.
- This 2-way contract treats a draw as a loss, not a push; raw model_p_home is the fair probability.
Low Tide Line- Nine-match xG minimum and full feature coverage support the projection; Alavés home PPG is 1.70.
- The 17.1-point projection gap is unusually large and may reflect model misspecification or unobserved team news.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Alavés are 5-2-3 at home with a +6 goal difference across the 10-game form sample.
- Atlético's away form is stronger, but its adjusted xG advantage is modest: 1.43 for versus Alavés' 1.21.
- Atlético lead the all-team Elo rating by 181.9 points and average 1.38 away goals.
- Deportivo Alaves first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Edge class: PROJECTION. Opponent-adjusted lambdas are Alavés 1.30 and Atlético 1.25; race probability is 46.5%.
- Checks pass: FTTS mids sum to 98.5%; Alavés first-score price remains below its 64¢ team-total over 0.5 mid.
- The six-bin goal sample rises late: 13.6%, 13.5%, 16.9%, 17.5%, 15.2%, 22.4%; I applied a 1.0-point no-goal correction, with no side-specific late tilt.
- Deportivo Alavés spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed XIs changed four starters each from the immediately prior league lineups; Atleti retained only 7 of 11.
- Current XI attack quality is Alavés 2.19 versus Atlético 2.65, but the home side's stable seven-man core and venue protection matter on +0.5.
- Pre-lineup reference was 46.95¢ at 6:30 AM PDT and current is 47.17¢, so this is projection rather than a stale-price TIMING claim.
- Most likely loss: Atlético wins in 90 minutes, especially by one goal, which defeats Alavés +0.5.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- no BTTS-shaped market and no adjacent total rung were listed; totals-only for this event.
- Starting XI is unpublished; lineup lookup and preview both report no confirmed eleven, so late attacker or goalkeeper news can move the lambdas.
- Alaves wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi
Forty FiveDown 12% last 7 days - Deportivo Alaves wins 1-0−100%Lost
Taken at 7¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Deportivo Alavés; model key 1-0 maps to the contract “Deportivo Alaves wins 1-0”.
- Starting XIs are not posted; late lineup news could move exact-score mass materially.
Show all 9 picks
- Total goals under 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 days - Total Goals (Regular Time) over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- confirmed 11-player XIs appeared at 6:33 AM; four names changed for each side from its latest league XI.
- Current-XI attack quality totals 4.83 (Atlético 2.65, Alavés 2.19); Toni Martínez rates 0.60 xG/90 and Jonathan David 0.43 xG/90.
- Pre-lineup ProphetX over 2.5 was +105 / 48.78¢ at 6:30 AM; the current board remains +105, showing no lineup repricing.
- The 4.83 XI-quality aggregate is not a direct goal forecast, and the lineup-post timestamp is not recorded.
- Atlético de Madrid spread NO at 2.5+12%Won
Taken at 89¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: λhome 1.25 and λaway 1.14 imply approximately 4.3% for Atlético to win by 3+ goals.
- Own NO probability is approximately 95.7%, a 6.7-point advantage over the 89-cent entry price.
- La Liga sample: 15 of 70 recent matches ended with either side winning by 3+, supporting lumpy concentration near margins 0, 2.
- Atlético could score early and create a high-margin outlier despite the low modeled 3+ probability.
Questions
Who won Atlético de Madrid vs. Deportivo Alavés?
Atlético de Madrid won 2-1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.