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FinalEstadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Elche
Celta de Vigo
0–0Final
Elche
Score by period
Team12T
CDV000
ELCH000

Top model pick, graded

Won

total goals under 2.5 52¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opponent-adjusted xG pairs: Elche xGF/xGA 1.05/1.36; Celta xGF/xGA 0.88/1.55; averaging opponent attack/defense gives 2.42 expected goals.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-4 on this game · +15% return

  1. Elche to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Low Tide Line
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Elche's confirmed 4-3-3 can press Celta's three-man build-up with a front-three reference structure.
    • Anselmi's possession-first approach attacks Celta's documented transition weakness behind advancing wide players.
    • Celta's 3-2-5 in possession can create central overloads against Elche's midfield three.
    Low Tide Line
      • The model's thinner-side xG sample is only 9 matches, leaving calibration uncertainty.
    • total goals under 2.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG pairs: Elche xGF/xGA 1.05/1.36; Celta xGF/xGA 0.88/1.55; averaging opponent attack/defense gives 2.42 expected goals.
      • Kalshi ladder implies roughly 2.6 goals from the 0.5, 5.5 rungs; our 2.42 projection points under, with Dixon-Coles under 2.5 at 0.65 confirming direction.
      • Only 9, 10 xG-covered matches per side, below the 12-match top-coverage tier; calibration uncertainty is material.
    • Match total under 2.5 goals
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG rates are modest: Elche 1.05 for/1.36 against, Celta 0.88 for/1.55 against.
      • Pinnacle's sharp 2.5-goal anchor devigs to 51.7% under; Kalshi NO costs 52¢.
      • The Kalshi 2.5 rung is traded (163.2 contracts), 1¢ wide, and the full ladder is monotone.
      • Lineups are unconfirmed roughly 12 hours out; late attacking news could raise the goal rate.
    • Elche CF first team to score
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
      Why it likes it
      • The constant-hazard race gives Elche 50.6%; the measured late-goal profile adds a conservative 0.4 points, to 51.0%.
      • Constraint holds: Elche over 0.5 team goals is 72.5% at the Kalshi midpoint, above Elche's first-score probability.
      • Features are computed through 2026-09-19; current starting elevens are not fully confirmed and the injury feed is count-only.
    • Both Teams To Score
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Team SheetDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rafa Mir is sidelined; his xG/90 is 0.43, above the 0.35 shock threshold.
      • Lambda shifts from Elche 1.21 to 0.78; Celta stays 0.89.
      • BTTS model probability falls from 41.9% to approximately 31.8%.
      • Subtracting the full 0.43 xG/90 assumes replacement output is zero.
    • Under 2.5 Total Goals
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted xG is modest: Elche 1.05 for/1.36 against; Celta 0.88 for/1.55 against.
      • Starting XIs were not posted at 2:17am; striker, goalkeeper, or defensive rotation could move the true lambda.
    Show all 9 picks
    1. Both Teams To Score NO
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

      Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Elche’s attack is 1.01 xG/match versus Celta’s 1.42 xGA; Celta’s attack is only 0.92 versus Elche’s 1.53 xGA.
      • Per-side Poisson read is approximately Elche 70.2% to score and Celta 70.5%, yielding BTTS YES about 49.5% and NO about 50.5%.
      • Modest asymmetry favors NO: Elche is the lower xG attacker facing Celta’s 40% opponent clean-sheet rate; Elche’s own clean-sheet rate is only 10%.
      • The per-side read is only a modest 50.5% NO, so normal match variance dominates despite the price gap.
    2. Celta de Vigo spread over 1.5 goals NOFavorite
      +19%Won

      Taken at 84¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    3. Elche CF wins 1-0Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi

      ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Orientation: home is Elche; model key 1-0 is the contract “Elche CF wins 1-0”.
      • Elche home lambda is 1.21; model top-k ranks 1-0 first.
      • No sharp correct-score reference exists; the contract price is compared directly with the model, not a devigged grid.

    Questions

    Who won Celta de Vigo vs. Elche?

    Elche won 0-0 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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