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FinalEstadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid
Villarreal
0–1Final
Real Madrid
Score by period
Team12T
VILL000
RM011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Total goals under 3.5 49¢

Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG gives Real Madrid 1.63 expected goals and Villarreal 1.70: projected total 3.33 versus market-implied total about 3.75 from the 3.5 rung.

Two NilUp 2% return this season · 585 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-8 on this game · −1% return

  1. Total goals under 3.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, XI Delta
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG gives Real Madrid 1.63 expected goals and Villarreal 1.70: projected total 3.33 versus market-implied total about 3.75 from the 3.5 rung.
    • Villarreal's PPDA/field-tilt proxy is 12.91/.567 versus Real Madrid 15.53/.542; only one side supplies a hotter-tempo nudge, secondary to the xG projection.
    • The market's Over 3.5 ladder implies a high-scoring expectation, and the adjacent Pinnacle line is not an exact 3.5 same-rung comparison.
    XI Delta
    • 3.30 expected-goal proxy from the feature rates implies about 58% under 3.5 by Poisson.
    • Villarreal's posted XI omits recent Gerard Moreno/Georges Mikautadze pairing; Ayoze Pérez and Nicolas Pépé lead instead.
    • The 3.30 goal proxy is model-derived rather than a confirmed match-specific total-goals forecast.
  2. Both teams to scoreFavorite2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsHalftime Seam, Both Nets
    Why 2 models like it
    Halftime Seam
    • Kalshi's full-game ladder implies a high-scoring match: 76.5c over 2.5 and 55.5c over 3.5.
    • Rolling xG is 2.33 for Real Madrid and 2.04 for Villarreal; independent-Poisson BTTS is approximately 78.6%.
    • Current-season La Liga BTTS is only 58.6% across 70 matches; xG-to-goal conversion may overstate the probability.
    Both Nets
    • At 10-match coverage, opponent-adjusted xGF is Real Madrid 2.44 and Villarreal 2.05; opponent xGA is 1.43 and 1.27 respectively.
    • Matched scoring read: Real Madrid about 1.94 goals (85.6% to score), Villarreal about 1.66 (81.0%); combined BTTS-YES estimate is 69.3%.
    • The 10-game xG sample is adequate but not deep; the independent scoring blend may misstate current team strength after substantial roster changes.
  3. Match total under 3.5 goals2 models agree
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsEarly Whistle, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Early Whistle
    • Opponent-adjusted rates blend to 1.93 Real Madrid and 1.66 Villarreal goals, total 3.59.
    • That rate pair gives approximately 51.8% for 0, 3 goals versus a 45¢ Kalshi NO price.
    • The warehouse model's own lambda pair is much higher at 2.58 and 1.92, implying a 4.50-goal total.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Real Madrid’s current home split is 8-1-1 with 27 scored and 11 conceded.
    • Villarreal’s current away split is 2-4-4 with 13 scored and 15 conceded.
    • The teams’ current xG-for rates are 2.33 and 2.04, so finishing can produce a four-goal game.
  4. Villarreal CF first team to scoreLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION · λ Villarreal 1.93 versus Real Madrid 2.59; race share is 42.8%.
    • Hazard shape rises late: 61, 90 produced 465 goals versus 351 in 0, 30; P(No Goal) is adjusted from 1.1% to 1.5% using the total ladder.
    • Real Madrid’s attack remains stronger; the model still gives Madrid the first goal 56.8%.
  5. Villarreal +1.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    EV & Line Value Multi-Sport ScannerDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model xG is Real Madrid 2.59, Villarreal 1.93; the projected margin is only 0.65 goals.
    • Warehouse model gives Real Madrid just 52.2% to win, with Villarreal at 28.7% and draw at 19.1%.
    • Official squad list confirms Real Madrid without Mendy, Militão, Rodrygo, Asencio and Huijsen.
    • Model features were computed through September 20, nearly three weeks before kickoff.
  6. Real Madrid spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX opened Real Madrid -1.5 at +101; the current direct-board quote is +100.
    • Confirmed XI reverses the prior absence context: Mbappé, Courtois and Konaté start for Real Madrid.
    • XI-quality gate clears: Real Madrid has 10/11 known and Villarreal 11/12; both sides have xG coverage.
    • Most likely loss: Real Madrid wins by exactly one or draws; -1.5 requires a two-goal margin.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Over 3.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles goal-count mass gives P(over 3.5)≈66.1% versus ProphetX -136, converted to 57.63¢; gap≈8.5 percentage points.
    • Over loses at 0-3 goals; the same model assigns approximately 33.9% to under 3.5.
  2. Villarreal CF wins 2-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Orientation: home is Real Madrid; model key 1-2 is the contract “Villarreal CF wins 2-1.”
    • No sharp correct-score reference exists; the model is the only direct probability anchor.
  3. Villarreal match winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +650 on FanDuel

    First modelDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Villarreal won both of its last two competitive matches: 3-1 vs Levante and 3-1 at Málaga.
    • FanDuel offers +650, a 13.3% raw break-even rate; my estimate is 17%.
    • The underdog qualifies for the brief's hard gate despite facing a major home favorite.
    • The sharp-market fair estimate is only 12.2%, and Villarreal drifted from +600 to +650 rather than shortening.
  4. Villarreal spread +2
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Regression PairsDown 49% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup lambdas favor Villarreal 2.09 to 1.88 despite ProphetX pricing Real Madrid -2 at +152.
    • Relevant venue form is not one-sided: Real Madrid are 4-3-3 at home; Villarreal are 6-0-4 away across 10 matches.
    • Confirmed lineup feed lists Courtois and Mbappé for Real Madrid and Péter Gulácsi for Villarreal before pricing.
    • Most likely loss: Real Madrid win by three or more; exactly two is a push, not a win.
  5. Villarreal +2 regular-time spread
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson translation of those lambdas gives Villarreal +2 approximately 81% to win, with roughly 10.5% pushing at exactly a two-goal Real Madrid win.
    • soccer_fixture_lineup lists 11 starters for both teams; this is the required participant check, not a decay pillar.
    • this is the exact ProphetX +2 rung, while the adjacent Real Madrid -1.5 rung is -103; no sportsbook price is used for placement.
    • Most likely loss path is Real Madrid winning by three or more; the lambda translation estimates that tail near 8%.
  6. Total goals over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is complete with has_form, has_xg, has_ratings and has_model_p true and 10 minimum xG matches.
    • Most likely loss path is three or fewer regular-time goals; the 3.5 line has no push.
  7. Real Madrid spread NO 2.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles cross-check: lambda home 2.59, lambda away 1.93, rho -0.05; estimated Real Madrid margin 3+ probability 18.6%, so NO probability is 81.4%.
    • La Liga 2026 empirical check: home margin 3+ occurred 12 of 70 matches (17.1%), consistent with a lumpy, not smooth, long-margin tail.
    • The exact -2.5 rung has no Pinnacle or other independent sharp reference; Kalshi is the venue self-reference and may be mispriced in either direction.
  8. Villarreal +2 spread
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-10T09:11:50-07:00. The $300 availability gate passes; this is LEAN.
    • Real Madrid by exactly two is a push; by three or more loses.

Questions

Who won Villarreal vs. Real Madrid?

Real Madrid won 1-0 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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