FinalAnoeta Stadium · San Sebastián
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEPO | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| RS | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonReal Sociedad spread over 1.5 goals NO 65¢
Why Handicap likes it: Lambdas are Real Sociedad 1.28 and Deportivo A Coruña 1.53; low-score model cross-check puts home margin 2+ near 13.6%.
HandicapDown 7% this season · 642 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-9 on this game · −85% return
- Deportivo A Coruña−100%Lost
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsLow Tide Line, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
Low Tide Line- Coverage is complete for model probability, form, xG and ratings; six prior xG matches support the projection.
- Pinnacle's home price moved from -161 to -156; that drift modestly improves the away side and runs with the projection.
- The 25.5-point model gap is unusually large; late lineup or roster information could explain the disagreement.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Deportivo's away profile is 2-4-1 with 10 goals for and 8 against; Real Sociedad's home profile is 3-2-5 with 14 for and 20 against.
- Opponent-adjusted expected goals favor Deportivo: 1.28 away xG versus Real Sociedad's 1.14 home xG.
- The Dixon-Coles model is an optional, unvalidated input and may be miscalibrated for this matchup.
- Deportivo A Coruña to win−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Haul, Number EarnedWhy 2 models like it
Long Haul- Confirmed XIs are posted: 11 starters each; Deportivo's starters carry 1.34 attacking xG versus Real Sociedad's 1.10.
- No short-rest, long-travel, artificial-surface, aggregate-state, or draw-shape pillar supports this position.
Number Earned- Model makes Deportivo A Coruña 42.5% to win; fair line is approximately +135.
- Opponent-adjusted xG favors Deportivo: 1.28 per match versus Real Sociedad's 1.14.
- The model uses only seven Deportivo away matches, a meaningful small-sample risk.
- RC Deportivo De La Coruna first team to score−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picksWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's 2.75-goal total anchors the scoring environment; Kalshi Over 0.5 is 94.5%, implying 5.5% No Goal.
- Goal counts rise from 579 in minutes 0-15 to 907 in 76-90; I add approximately 0.5 points to Deportivo's first-score share.
- Six-match minimum XG coverage is thin; features were computed through September 20.
- Deportivo A Coruña spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 7 days - Deportivo A Coruña moneyline 2-way−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XIs have 11 starters each; the 10-match XI-quality call returns xi_att_xg of 1.31 for Deportivo versus 1.10 for Real Sociedad.
- The 6:33am captured board showed the three-way home/away reference at Real Sociedad -127 / Deportivo +410; this pick uses the current two-way contract, not a timing claim.
- Most likely loss: the match is drawn; ProphetX 2-way moneyline treats a draw as a loss, not a push.
- Both Teams To Score NO−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Combined independent BTTS-YES estimate ≈53.6%, so BTTS-NO ≈46.4% versus a 45c Kalshi NO price.
- This is not the desk's strongest asymmetric NO case: neither side faces a defense below roughly 0.8 xGA, and Real Sociedad's defense is at 1.64 xGA.
Show all 8 picks
- Real Sociedad spread over 1.5 goals NO+54%Won
Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambdas are Real Sociedad 1.28 and Deportivo A Coruña 1.53; low-score model cross-check puts home margin 2+ near 13.6%.
- Current La Liga sample: Real Sociedad-style home margin 2+ occurred 13 of 73 matches (17.8%); conservative blend is about 16% YES, 84% NO.
- The 73-match competition sample is broad rather than matchup-specific, and goal-difference outcomes are lumpy.
- RC Deportivo De La Coruna wins 2-1−100%Lost
Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Real Sociedad; model key 1-2 is the contract “RC Deportivo De La Coruna wins 2-1”.
- Screened live-subset mid-price sum is 76.5%; coverage min_gp_with_xg is 6; 19 of 29 returned contracts failed the dead-quote screen.
- No confirmed starting XI; Real Sociedad has two and Deportivo one sidelined player in the preview.
Questions
Who won Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad won 3-2 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.