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FinalEstadio La Cartuja de Sevilla · Sevilla
Osasuna
2–5Final
Real Betis
Score by period
Team12T
OSAS022
RB235

Top model pick, graded

Won

Match total over 3.5 goals 32¢

Why Early Whistle likes it: Opponent-adjusted rates average to 1.39 Betis and 1.53 Osasuna goals; combined rate 2.92.

Early WhistleUp 3% return this season · 157 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-7 on this game · −23% return

  1. Total goals under 2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTwo Nil, XI Delta
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Nil
    • Opp-adjusted xG pairing gives Betis 1.39 expected goals and Osasuna 1.53; computed expected total is 2.92.
    • Both teams show active pressing/transition signals: PPDA 13.58 Betis and 11.83 Osasuna; Osasuna directness is 0.82, which can create a hot game.
    XI Delta
    • Blended xG rates imply roughly 2.8 goals; Poisson under 2.5 is approximately 47%.
    • The +138 quote implies 42.0%, leaving a modest projection edge.
    • The 2.8-goal baseline is only modestly below the 2.5 threshold; one early goal changes the game state.
  2. Match total over 3.5 goals
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

    Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted rates average to 1.39 Betis and 1.53 Osasuna goals; combined rate 2.92.
    • Pinnacle's fresh 2.75 total (-101 over / -112 under) provides the sharp total anchor; Kalshi's 3.5 rung traded 71.41 contracts.
    • The 3.5 threshold needs four goals; the blended total rate is only 2.92, so tail variance is substantial.
  3. CA Osasuna first team to scoreLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    First StrikeUp 2% over 212 picks
    Why it likes it
    • λhome 1.39, λaway 1.73 gives Osasuna 53.1% first-goal probability before timing adjustment.
    • Pinnacle totals are Over 2.8 at -115 / Under 2.8 at +104, an independent high-goal anchor.
    • Late hazard measured at 0.83 goals per fixture in minutes 76-90 versus 0.29 in 0-15; timing adjustment lifts Osasuna's race estimate slightly.
    • Real Betis is the market's strong match favorite; the warehouse race model sharply disagrees with the 65.5% Kalshi home-win midpoint.
  4. Both Teams To Score
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Betis scoring read ≈73.4% (λ≈1.32 from 1.65 oppadj xGF and Osasuna 1.00 away xGA); 10 home xG matches.
    • Projection: Osasuna scoring read ≈79.2% (λ≈1.57 from 1.57 oppadj xGF and Betis 1.57 home xGA); 9 away xG matches.
    • Independent product is ≈58.1% for BTTS YES versus Kalshi yes_ask raw 0.54, a fraction regime (54c): ≈4.1-point projection gap.
    • BTTS loses if either team is blank; the blended Poisson reads still imply roughly 26.6% Betis and 20.8% Osasuna no-score risk.
  5. CA Osasuna wins 2-1Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Home is Real Betis; model key 1-2 maps to contract “CA Osasuna wins 2-1.”
    • Live correct-score subset sums to 82.5%; 15 of 28 contracts were discarded as dead.
    • Top-k is ordered and coverage is sound: minimum xG sample is 9 matches.
    • no sharp correct-score price corroborates this contract.
  6. Over 2.5 Total Goals
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • opponent-adjusted xG is Betis home 1.65 for / 1.49 against and Osasuna away 1.57 for / 1.14 against.
    • no BTTS-shaped market or adjacent total rung appeared; ProphetX listed only the 2.5 total.
    • Starting XIs are not posted at 6:43 AM PDT; an attacking rotation or goalkeeper change could move the true lambdas.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Total Goals over 2.5
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 0.97 percentage-point model cushion over ProphetX's 58.33¢ quote is a marginal projection lean, not a structural edge.
    • Single-leg LEAN ticket at half stake; no same-game combination or fabricated parlay price.
    • Most likely loss: two or fewer goals despite the model's 3.12 expected-goal total.
  2. Osasuna spread over 1.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • La Liga 2026 sample: Osasuna-side margin of at least two occurred in 11 of 74 matches (14.9%), still well above the venue quote.
    • no independent sharp price for the exact Osasuna-wins-by-2+ event; Kalshi is the venue self-reference, so this is capped at LEAN.
  3. Draw to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Betis' 1.49 home xGA and Osasuna's 1.57 away xG support a competitive matchup despite the home favorite.
    • Kalshi's Tie contract is liquid enough to quote: 5,673 contracts traded over the last 24 hours.
    • Betis are 7-1-2 at home with 22 points, while Osasuna are 2-2-6 away with 8 points.
  4. DrawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Kalshi

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue xG is balanced: Betis 1.55 for and 1.57 against; Osasuna 1.48 for and 1.00 against.
    • Confirmed XIs have close lineup ratings, 76.55 for Betis versus 74.61 for Osasuna.
    • Osasuna’s defensive profile and only one day less rest support a lower-margin contest.
    • Betis leads the recent-form snapshot 4-0-1 and owns a 239-point Elo advantage.

Questions

Who won Osasuna vs. Real Betis?

Real Betis won 5-2 on Sunday, Oct 11, 2026.

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