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FinalEstadio Abanca-Riazor · La Coruña
Levante
1–1Final
Deportivo A Coruña
Score by period
Team12T
LEV011
DEPO011

Top model pick, graded

Won

Levante spread +0.5 56¢

Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-9 on this game · −39% return

  1. Levante spread +0.52 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsTwo Goal Cushion, Half Goal Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Two Goal Cushion
      • Thin model coverage: xG history minimum is 7 matches, with form samples of 8 for Deportivo and 10 for Levante.
      Half Goal Pairs
      • Both XIs are confirmed; xG coverage is true with seven matches for the thinner side, and model probabilities are populated.
      • The feature build runs through October 12, so late form or team news may be incompletely reflected.
    • Over 2.5 Total Goals2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsTwo Nil Pairs, Low Tide Line
      Why 2 models like it
      Two Nil Pairs
      • Opp-adjusted xG: Deportivo 1.41 for / 1.45 against over 7 gp; Levante 1.63 / 1.66 over 10 gp.
      • only the 2.5 rung is listed; no BTTS-shaped market exists, so totals-only.
      • Starting XIs are unpublished; a late striker or goalkeeper change could invalidate the fitted lambdas.
      Low Tide Line
      • Warehouse Dixon-Coles projection gives Over 2.5 a 67.6% probability.
      • Combined xG rates are 2.91 (Deportivo 1.38, Levante 1.53), supporting a three-goal baseline.
      • The projection-to-venue gap is roughly 16.4 points, large enough to suggest model misspecification or late information.
    • Both teams to score2 models agree
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

      2 modelsBoth Nets, Snapp Decision of the Day
      Why 2 models like it
      Both Nets
      • Deportivo scoring read 78.4% and Levante 78.6%; λ estimates are 1.53 and 1.54 from oppadj attack/defense inputs, a symmetric BTTS case.
      • Independent product is 61.6% BTTS-YES versus Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.58; regime sanity check: fraction, equal to 58¢, not 58.0x odds.
      • Seven xG matches for Deportivo is a usable but early-season sample; team-level scoring rates remain volatile.
      Snapp Decision of the Day
      • Both teams clear 1.38 expected goals per match, with Levante at 1.53 and Deportivo at 1.38 raw xG.
      • The matchup's opponent-adjusted attacking rates are 1.41 for Deportivo and 1.63 for Levante.
      • The sharp BTTS sportsbook market is materially lower at 57.2% fair probability, so the model may overstate joint scoring.
    • Total goals over 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Bench BossDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed starting elevens carry 4.77 combined attacking xG; no unresolved starting-player or DNP flip remains.
      • Most likely loss: direct attacks become sterile and the match finishes with two or fewer goals.
    • Over 2.5 goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opponent-adjusted rates blend to roughly 1.53 and 1.54 goals, implying about 59% over 2.5.
      • The model’s independent rate pair is λ 1.73/1.75, with 67.5% over 2.5.
      • Pinnacle’s fresh 2.5 line at -108/-104 supplies the required sharp total anchor.
      • Aubameyang, Deportivo’s reported leading scorer, is listed out; the starting XI remains unconfirmed.
    • Full-game total goals over 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Halftime SeamDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current La Liga sample: 57.7% of 78 matches cleared 2.5 full-game goals.
      • The matchup xG baseline is 2.91, implying about 55.6% for three or more goals; empirical blending supports 56, 57%.
      • The full-goals ladder is monotone, liquid, actively trading, and every rung is tightly quoted.
      • The matchup xG estimate is below the league’s 3.09 goals per match, making the edge sensitive to model choice.
    Show all 13 picks
    1. 1H total goals over 1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

      Halftime SeamDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current La Liga sample: 41.0% of 78 matches cleared 1H 1.5 goals.
      • Matchup xG Poisson estimate alone is nearer 36.5%, so the edge depends on blending empirical league frequency.
    2. Levante winLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 29¢ on Kalshi

      Low Tide LineUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi home YES eased from 45.5¢ to 44.5¢ pre-kick, modestly favoring the away side.
      • Pinnacle devigged Levante near 28.5%, materially below the model; the sharp reference disagrees.
    3. Levante over 1.5 spreadLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi

      HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • La Liga recent 100-match sample has 59.8% of results at margins 0 or 1, supporting concentrated low-margin mass rather than a smooth ladder.
      • Only 7 home and 10 away xG observations support the lambdas; the matchup estimate can be wrong.
    4. Levante over 0.5 team goalsFavorite
      +41%Won

      Taken at 71¢ on Polymarket

      Early WhistleDown 83% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rate blend: Levante scored 1.70 away; Deportivo conceded 1.38 at home; estimated Levante rate ≈1.54.
      • First-score split: Deportivo 50.5%, Levante 45.6%, no goal 3.9% from the rate-based Poisson read.
      • The balanced first-score race still supports a modest away scoring lean before lineups.
      • Only 8, 10 matches feed the rates; sample noise is substantial.
    5. Game total over 2.5 goals
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Combined model xG is 3.48; opponent-adjusted xG rates are 1.41 home and 1.63 away.
      • Recent scoring environments are elevated: Deportivo matches average 2.88 combined goals; Levante matches average 3.60.
      • Levante's keeper-goals-prevented signal is -0.38, while both teams average at least 1.38 xG for per match.
      • The xG model has only seven games for the thinner side and its calibration is explicitly unvalidated.
    6. Levante moneyline 2-way +174
      0%Push

      Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

      Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Coverage passes: form, xG, ratings and model flags are true; the thinner xG side still has 7 matches, with lambdas 1.73 home and 1.75 away.
      • No structural decay edge is verified: rest is only 5 days versus 4, the venue is grass, travel is unrecorded, and no aggregate state applies.
    7. Levante to win
      0%Push

      Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2-way draw-push structure avoids the 3-way draw loss; Levante's 3-way YES is +275.
      • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-10-16T11:08:40-07:00; fixture is scheduled and model coverage includes form, xG, ratings, and model probabilities.
      • Model direction is narrow: Levante leads Deportivo by only 0.81 percentage points before the draw outcome.

    Questions

    Who won Levante vs. Deportivo A Coruña?

    Deportivo A Coruña won 1-1 on Friday, Oct 16, 2026.

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