FinalEstadio de Vallecas · Madrid
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RAYO | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 2.5 Total Goals 43¢
Why Two Nil Pairs likes it: Rayo’s home xG profile and Celta’s stronger away defensive baseline still produce a model total above the 2.5 rung; the board offers no adjacent total rung to contradict it.
Two Nil PairsDown 6% this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-11 on this game · −41% return
- Celta de Vigo to win−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
5 modelsDeep Book, EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner +3Why 5 models like it
Deep Book- Expected XIs are not confirmed. Both sides show four projected outs in the pregame feed.
EV & Line Value Multi-Sport Scanner- Model gives Celta a 48.8% win probability; Kalshi Celta YES costs 31¢.
- Celta's opponent-adjusted away xGA is 0.99 versus Rayo's home xGA of 1.78.
- Three-way draw probability is 26.7% in the model, and any draw loses the contract.
Standing Order- Pinnacle also has Celta on the same side at +205.
- Rayo has the higher Elo by 8.35, so the flow and model conflict with one rating input.
Fair Price Pairs- the captured sharp board is 3-way, not this exact 2-way contract.
- Both XIs were confirmed at 7:31am PDT, but the model features were computed through 10/27; current personnel and unserved coaching information may be underrepresented.
- Total goals over 2.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsTwo Nil, Early WhistleWhy 2 models like it
Two Nil- Only 10 xG-covered matches per side, below the brief's 12-game top tier; variance is material.
Early Whistle- Opponent-adjusted inputs: Rayo 1.44 xGF/1.79 xGA; Celta 1.18 xGF/0.99 xGA.
- Model rate pair is 1.03 home and 1.56 away, totaling 2.58 expected goals.
- Expected lineups are not confirmed; Celta's Borja Iglesias and Rayo's Augusto Batalla are listed out.
- Celta de Vigo spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- both XIs were confirmed at 7:31 AM PDT; no exact pre-lineup Celta +0.5 capture exists, so this is not a TIMING claim.
- Confirmed XI quality favors Celta's attack: 1.79 XI xG versus Rayo's 1.60, a +0.19 attacking-XI gap.
- Rayo lose Raúl de Tomás (0.51 xG/90) and Pathé Ciss (0.14 xG/90; 9 starts); Celta lose Borja Iglesias (0.26 xG/90; 3 starts) and Carl Starfelt (6.91 rating; 5 starts).
- Most likely loss is a Rayo Vallecano regular-time win; Celta +0.5 has no protection against any home victory.
- Over 2.5 Total Goals+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rayo’s home xG profile and Celta’s stronger away defensive baseline still produce a model total above the 2.5 rung; the board offers no adjacent total rung to contradict it.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed: Rayo’s projection is dated 10/30 2:00pm and Celta’s 10/29 10:00am; late striker or goalkeeper changes are unknown.
- Celta de Vigo regular-time spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Fair Price PairsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Most likely ticket win condition is a draw or Celta victory; the contract loses only if Rayo wins outright.
- Both XIs are expected, not confirmed; projections were refreshed at 5:45am PDT before the 8:15am kickoff.
- RC Celta de Vigo wins 2-0−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
ScorelineDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Orientation: home is Rayo Vallecano; model key 0-2 maps to the contract “RC Celta de Vigo wins 2-0”.
- Celta’s model lambda is 1.55 versus Rayo’s 1.03; 0-2 is fourth in the six-score top-k.
- Coverage passes: min_gp_with_xg is 10; nine qualifying live contracts sum to 0.74 at mid-prices.
- Expected XIs are not confirmed; Celta has six and Rayo five listed sidelined players.
Show all 10 picks
- Rayo Vallecano first team to score+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket
Kickoff ClockUp 105% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Rayo expected scoring rate is 1.63 goals per match versus Celta's 1.11.
- Rayo's expected attacking core includes García, Palazón, de Frutos and Camello; Celta remain without Borja Iglesias.
- Rayo's 1.72 expected goals conceded versus Celta's 0.99 supports a Rayo-first matchup.
- Starting elevens are still expected, not confirmed, six hours before kickoff.
- Both Teams To Score−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Both NetsDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; symmetric case: both sides carry a solid scoring read, not a total-goals proxy.
- Home scoring read: 70.4% from blended xG rate 1.44 and opponent defensive 0.99; 10-match xG sample.
- Away scoring read: 77.2% from blended xG rate 1.18 and opponent defensive 1.78; 10-match xG sample.
- Expected, not confirmed, lineups; multiple defensive and attacking absences could alter either side's scoring probability.
- Celta de Vigo spread over 2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 3¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- At 21' and 0-0, scaling lambdas to 69 minutes gives roughly 6.7% for Celta to lead by 3+ goals.
- Current La Liga sample: 100 matches; home-minus-away ≤−3 occurred 6% (−5: 2%, −3: 4%), showing lumpy margins.
- Live state is 21' at 0-0; a slow match, red card, or tactical shift can sharply reduce the tail probability.
- Celta de Vigo wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: λ Rayo 1.03 / Celta 1.55; independent low-score cross-check makes Celta 2+ goal margin about 25.4%.
- Coverage is 10 xG matches for each side; the 100-match La Liga sample has away 2+ margins at 14%, an 11.4-point model/sample gap.
- Celta's model 25.4% estimate materially exceeds the league away-2+ empirical rate; the model could simply be overstating this matchup.
Questions
Who won Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano won 3-0 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.