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FinalColiseum Alfonso Pérez · Getafe
Sevilla
1–3Final
Getafe
Score by period
Team12T
SEVI101
GETA033

Top model pick, graded

Won

Getafe to win +260

Why Coaches Corner likes it: Getafe’s confirmed 4-4-2 split-press blocks center-backs and back-passes, directly attacking Sevilla’s pivot-dependent build-up.

Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +155% return

  1. Getafe to winLong shot3 models agree
    +260%Won

    Taken at +260 on FanDuel

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Snapp Decision of the Day +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Getafe’s confirmed 4-4-2 split-press blocks center-backs and back-passes, directly attacking Sevilla’s pivot-dependent build-up.
    • Sevilla tactical analysis flags blocked pivots and forced direct pressure as a structural weakness.
    • Getafe’s four listed absences include Mojica and Mario Martín, reducing defensive rotation depth.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Model gives Getafe 35.3% to win versus 26.7% Pinnacle-de-vigged market probability.
    • Expected goals are nearly even: Getafe 1.05, Sevilla 1.00.
    • The model is a Dixon-Coles feature, not independently validated, and rests on only nine xG matches for the thinner side.
    Number Earned
    • 35% fair win probability from model λ: Getafe 1.05, Sevilla 1.00; fair line about +186.
    • Getafe opponent-adjusted xGA is 1.19 versus Sevilla's 1.32, a defensive matchup edge.
    • Getafe's venue form is 2-4-4 with 10 goals scored and 19 conceded.
  2. Sevilla FC −0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Standing OrderDown 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the 2:07 PT captured Pinnacle board showed Sevilla +144, on the same side as the ProphetX depth.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-11-01T02:10:59-08:00; price is +150 (40.00 cents).
    • The direct Pinnacle refresh returned no current price; +144 is a captured 2:07 PT reference, not a fresh direct quote.
  3. Total goals under 1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    Long HaulDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • draw-shaped convergence: model home/draw/away probabilities are 35.3%/31.8%/32.9%; lambdas are 1.05 and 1.00.
    • Lambda sum 2.05 implies approximately 39.4% for 0-1 total goals, above ProphetX's 36.23¢ price.
    • sportsbook total is 1.5, with Pinnacle under priced +101; the exchange's plus-money under is consistent with the low-scoring shape.
    • Most likely loss: two or more goals; the model's lambda-based estimate still gives roughly 60.6% to that outcome.
  4. Getafe CF wins 2-0Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 5¢ on Kalshi

    ScorelineDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is sound: min_gp_with_xg 9; has_model_p and has_xg are true.
    • Live draw lower bound is 31c versus Kalshi TIE at 33c; the board is coherent but not a sharp reference.
  5. Total goals over 2.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Two NilUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi's 0.5, 4.5 ladder fits roughly a 2.1-goal market mean, about 0.3 below the 2.39 xG projection; same-rung Over 2.5 is the traded contract.
    • Tempo is mixed but not suppressive: Sevilla PPDA 12.28 versus Getafe 17.45, with field tilt 0.49 and 0.48; this is only a secondary nudge.
    • The Poisson conversion of 2.39 xG implies roughly 43% Over, but I haircut that to a 40% win estimate because of the model disagreement and self-reference.
  6. Under 1.5 Total Goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Two Nil PairsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • DC lambdas are 1.05 home / 1.00 away, dc_rho -0.05; total lambda 2.05.
    • Model P(under 1.5) is approximately 38.7%; ProphetX +174 is 2.74 decimal and 36.5% implied.
    • Opponent-adjusted xG: Getafe 1.10 for / 1.19 against; Sevilla 1.17 for / 1.32 against.
    • Under 1.5 loses with two or more regular-time goals; the estimated edge is only about 2.2 percentage points.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Both Teams To Score
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Both NetsDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection / live state: Sevilla has already scored at 24', so YES now needs only a Getafe goal.
    • Getafe scoring read: blended 1.10 oppadj xGF and Sevilla 1.57 xGA gives λ≈1.34; over the remaining 66 minutes, P(Getafe scores)≈62%.
    • Pinnacle's live BTTS reference is far below the 62% live read; the market may incorporate state information missing from the simple xG-time scaling.
  2. Getafe spreadLong shot
    +900%Won

    Taken at 10¢ on Kalshi

    HandicapDown 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dixon-Coles gives Getafe a 14.0% chance to win by 2+, from λ Getafe 1.05 and λ Sevilla 1.00.
    • La Liga 2026-27 has 25 of 104 home wins by 2+ (24.0%), supporting a lumpy rather than smooth ladder.
    • The estimated edge is only 4.0 percentage points over the 10¢ venue price; a low-probability outcome has wide variance.
  3. Over 2.5 total goals
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coverage is 10 matches per side; confirmed XIs were posted at 4:10 AM PST.
    • This is a LEAN flow position. The 8.02x ratio clears the 3-10x band, but not the 10x recommended band.
    • The most likely losses are 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1; two goals or fewer loses.

Questions

Who won Sevilla vs. Getafe?

Getafe won 3-1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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