FinalSan Mamés Barria · Bilbao
Real Sociedad
1–2Final
Athletic Club
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RS | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| AC | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonAthletic Club −0.5 48¢
Two Goal CushionUp 3% return this season · 178 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-5 on this game · −13% return
- Athletic Club −0.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Two Goal CushionDown 7% last 7 days - Total goals over 2.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Early WhistleDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted rates imply Athletic Club 1.86 goals and Real Sociedad 1.10, for a 2.96-goal total.
- Pinnacle's sharp anchor is 2.75 goals (+102 over, -114 under), supporting a higher total than the Kalshi price implies.
- Both Kalshi sides are quoted with a 1¢ spread; the over rung has about 11,940 contracts traded and is not thin.
- The model's 56.8% is only about 2.8 percentage points above price, so ordinary soccer variance can erase the edge.
- Athletic Club spread −1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 26¢ on ProphetX
Half Goal PairsUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX's Athletic Club 2-way moneyline is -186 and 90-minute win binary is +108; direction is coherent, comparison only.
- Confirmed XIs posted at 11:00 AM; xG coverage is clean with 10 qualifying matches for each side and coverage_reason NULL.
- The model's 31.4% cover estimate is a distribution read, not a validated guarantee; one-goal wins and draws lose.
- Over 2.5 total goals+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsUp 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed XI: Mikel Oyarzabal starts for Real Sociedad; his current form sample shows 0.19 xG/90, 0.37 big chances created/90, and 7.05 rating.
- Confirmed XI: Iñaki and Nico Williams both start for Athletic Club; Iñaki has 0.43 xG/90 and Nico 1.69 chances created/90 in current-season samples.
- The six-fixture XI-quality read returned complete 11-man sheets with attack-XG readings of 2.15 and 2.95 across the teams; this is a lineup projection, not a timing claim.
- A controlled Athletic performance or the most likely 1-0/1-1 game state loses this 2.5 line.
- Athletic Club wins by more than 2.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 11¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda cross-check gives about 14.7% for an Athletic Club margin of at least 3; own blended estimate is 15.5%.
- Current La Liga sample before kickoff: 18 of 104 home wins by 3+ (17.3%), with 27 draws and 22 one-goal home wins showing lumpy mass.
- , 1-, or 2-goal Athletic Club win all lose; this is a high-variance tail contract.
- Real Sociedad over 3.5 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Expected total 2.84 goals: Athletic 1.61 plus Real Sociedad 1.23 from opponent-adjusted xG.
- Pressing proxies show PPDA 11.92 and 10.91; a secondary tempo nudge supports the over.
- no independent sharp 3.5-goal rung exists.
- Only about 0.8 percentage points of modeled edge before model error; low conviction.
Show all 9 picks
- Athletic Club to win+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Athletic Club projects for 1.86 goals; Real Sociedad projects for 1.11, a 0.75 expected-goal home edge.
- Athletic Club's 1.60 opponent-adjusted xG for is paired with Real Sociedad allowing 1.62 opponent-adjusted xG per match.
- Real Sociedad owns the better recent form, 4-0-1 versus Athletic Club's 2-2-1 over the last five.
- Real Sociedad regular-time spread +0.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Tail PairsDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Edin Terzić’s Athletic presses harder and controls more territory (10.91 PPDA, 63.9% field tilt), but has only 3 rest days and a congestion flag; Pellegrino Matarazzo’s Sociedad has 7 rest days and no congestion.
- Confirmed XIs at 11:00am meet the personnel gate; Sociedad retains Mikel Oyarzabal, while Athletic is without Gorka Guruzeta and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta.
- Most likely loss: Athletic’s aggressive home press converts its territorial edge into a one-goal win, defeating the +0.5 line.
- Real Sociedad +0.5 regular-time spread−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookUp 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board pull is current as of 2026-11-01 9:18:08 AM PST. Single-leg LEAN at half size.
- Real Sociedad +0.5 loses if Athletic Club wins by at least one goal; model lambdas are 1.86 home and 1.10 away.
Questions
Who won Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club?
Athletic Club won 2-1 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.