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FinalProgressive Field
Athletics61-94
0-1
Guardians80-75
Score by period
Team123456789T
OAK0000000000
CLE00010000-1

Top model pick, graded

Won

Athletics F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings) 57¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Live 0.57 yes / 0.44 no; sum 1.01, MARKET_STATUS_OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-8 on this game · −3% return

  1. Athletics F5 spread +1.5 (first 5 innings)
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live 0.57 yes / 0.44 no; sum 1.01, MARKET_STATUS_OPEN, tradable, both sides quoted.
    • Top-three lineup xwOBA is nearly even: Athletics .379 versus Cleveland .382; close-game protection matters.
    • Cleveland remains the F5 favorite; Gavin Williams' 1.06 L5 WHIP and 1.74 L5 ERA can create a two-run margin.
  2. Cleveland Guardians over 3.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 69.5¢ Cleveland win anchor plus 7.5-run total anchor fit approximately 4.51 Cleveland, 3.03 Athletics runs.
    • Empirical 2024, 26 regular-season 6, 9-run games, margin-tilted to the 69% home-win anchor, price Cleveland 4+ runs near 73%.
    • Pinnacle’s −253 Cleveland moneyline and 7-run total directionally confirm the anchor shape, not an independent team-total projection.
    • The fitted distribution is anchored to Polymarket’s own moneyline and total, so this is venue self-reference.
  3. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors agree: Polymarket US has Cleveland at 69¢ and over 6.5 runs at 57¢; Pinnacle independently prices Cleveland −233 and the total 7.
    • The 2025-26 final-game sample is right-skewed with 7 runs the modal total; the anchor picture is a roughly seven-run, not ultra-low, environment.
    • Innings 1-8 price draws from 58¢ to 63¢; the 9th-inning draw jumps to 71¢ without a comparable bullpen-suppression signal.
    • Lineups are not confirmed, and late bullpen deployment could change the ninth-inning scoring rate.
  4. Cleveland Guardians 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor prices Cleveland at 68.5%; Pinnacle's −231 reference independently points to roughly 69%.
    • Total anchors of Over 6.5 at 57¢ and Over 7.5 at 43.5¢ fit a low-scoring game centered near 7.3 runs.
    • Using the anchor-implied run split and MLB's right-skewed 2023+ scoring shape gives a flat-inning Cleveland win rate near 29, 30%, with the draw the modal outcome.
    • A single inning is thin and highly sequencing-dependent; one baserunner can dominate the result.
  5. Jack Perkins under 4.5 strikeouts
    +62%Won

    Taken at −162 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland's 20% K rate versus right-handed pitching clears the sub-21.5% gate.
    • Perkins' L3 K/9 is 7.88 versus an 8.61 season baseline, an 8.6% decline.
    • Perkins averages 84.75 pitches per start, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • The lineup contact average is built from very small current-season samples, mostly 1-5 plate appearances per hitter.
  6. Total runs under 6.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Derived mean 6.98 runs with SD 4.3; no-push Under 6.5 model 45.6%; gap versus Pinnacle 4.6 points.
    • Only 15/36 platoon PA support the low split signal, and Perkins has just four starts.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Cleveland Guardians team total over 1.5 runsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cleveland cleared 1.5 runs in 9 of its latest 10 completed games (90%), scoring 2-12 runs.
    • Against right-handers, Cleveland's .333 team AVG is 31.6% above the .253 league average.
    • All nine Cleveland starters are listed in the live pregame roster; Jack Perkins is the confirmed listed RHP starter.
    • The split is only 15 team plate appearances; Cleveland's .237 xwOBA is 18% below the .2895 league split average.
  2. Game total over 7.0 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 7.4, fair total line 7.4, Over 7.0 win probability 45.8%, push probability 14.9%; inputs locked at 12:10 PM CDT.
    • Model output: Athletics 3.6 runs, Guardians 3.8 runs against Gavin Williams and Jack Perkins.
    • Williams' current expected line is 3.77 xERA and .300 xwOBA allowed; Perkins is at 4.07 xERA and .311 xwOBA allowed.
    • The model win probability is only 45.8%; the wager needs eight or more runs and variance remains substantial.
  3. Athletics-Cleveland full-game total under 7 runs
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total 6.2 runs; estimated 56% win, 14% push, 30% loss on Under 7.
    • Gavin Williams carries a 3.77 expected ERA and .318 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 1.74.
    • Both bullpens have zero back-to-backs and only 65/70 pitches over three days; wind is 12 mph in from center.
    • Perkins' official lineup page lists a 6.14 ERA versus the warehouse's 4.19 profile, creating real early-run uncertainty.
  4. Gavin Williams over 7.5 strikeouts
    +71%Won

    Taken at −140 on BetMGM

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 235 strikeouts in 174 innings this season: 12.16 K/9.
    • He has 45 strikeouts across his last five starts; over 7.5 in three of five.
    • Athletics' 21.6% right-handed K rate is below the brief's 25% prime-over threshold.
  5. Game 1st 5 innings total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  6. Game total under 7 (push at exactly 7; wins at 0-6, loses at 8+)
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 7 pushes at exactly 7, while under 7.5 cashes at 7; both lose at 8+.
    • Using the under-7.5 rung as venue self-reference, push-aware fair decimal odds for under 7 are about 1.88 (−113); the live quote is −105.
    • REFERENCE only: if ProphetX's under-7.5 rung is itself mispriced, the inferred fair comparison is weaker.
  7. Game total under 7.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • My read is about 58% under 7.5 versus the 56c executable no-price.
    • Gavin Williams is listed to start; his snapshot shows a 3.06 ERA and 2.12 ERA across his last three.
    • Both lineups show modest RHP strikeout rates (CLE 21.8%, ATH 21.4%) and the forecast has 12 mph blowing in from center.
    • Jack Perkins has only four listed starts in the profile and his recent ERA is 4.50 across the last three.
  8. José Ramírez over 0.5 hits
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 appearances included a hit; 11 hits in 34 at-bats.
    • Confirmed batting second in today's starting lineup.
    • The 8-of-10 hit-game rate is a limited recent sample.
  9. Gavin Williams strikeouts 8+: No
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Warehouse 2025 baseline was 5.41 innings per start and 9.29 K/9; the innings cap truncates the 8+ tail.
    • Athletics' confirmed lineup posted an 11.1% K rate versus right-handed pitching over 36 PA, a low-matchup-K input.
    • All 10 Gavin/Perkins ladder contracts were screened: both sides quoted, no placeholder exclusions, and Gavin's rungs were monotone.
    • 2026 pitcher-specific form is not populated; the model is anchored to 2025 data rather than a current-season start sample.
  10. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • posted top threes support a 51% RFI-YES screen.
    • Verified vs-RHP xwOBA: Butler .347/362 PA, Langeliers .306/344; Kwan .323/494, Ramírez .315/531.
    • The full-game 6.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it prices later innings and bullpens, not this top-order frame.
    • Current 2026 first-inning pitcher profiles are absent; Williams' 134-PA and Perkins' 17-PA samples are historical.
  11. Total runs under 7
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle posts 7 with under −107, near the ProphetX under price; DK also posts under −113 at 7.
    • Jack Perkins and Gavin Williams are both posted starters; probable data is current and not stale. Progressive Field is 68°F with 12 mph wind in from center.
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-20T10:07:41-07:00; single-leg ticket avoids parlay pricing.
    • Exactly 7 runs is a push; one late bullpen inning can move the result above 7.

Questions

Who won Athletics vs. Guardians?

The Guardians won 1-0 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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