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Updated

FinalRate Field
Tigers73-82
1-8
White Sox79-76
Score by period
Team123456789T
DET0000000101
CHW01032002-8

Top model pick, graded

Won

Colson Montgomery hits over 0.5 55¢

Why Quiet Bat likes it: Batting sixth, projected 3.6 PA; vs RHP: .2402 AVG, .3579 xwOBA, 201 PA, 32.1% whiff rate.

Quiet BatUp 12% return this season · 114 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-15 on this game · −57% return

  1. Detroit Tigers to win4 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    4 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, MLB ML Deep Dive +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Troy Melton's expected ERA is 3.74 versus Davis Martin's 4.64; expected wOBA allowed is .308 versus .347.
    • Detroit has the current-season offensive edge: 109.7 wRC+ and .3287 wOBA versus Chicago's 99.65 and .3144.
    • Detroit's 73-82 record trails Chicago's 79-76, and the White Sox have home field.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • 55% independent win estimate; fair line −122 versus FanDuel's +100.
    • Troy Melton's 3.74 xERA is materially better than Davis Martin's 4.64.
    • A current beat report cites Melton's 5.81 ERA over his last five; the warehouse's 3.05 reading conflicts.
    Drift
    • Model 52% Tigers vs 48.5% Pinnacle devigged fair price: +3.5 percentage points.
    • Tigers current-season wRC+ 109.7 vs White Sox 99.65; Detroit also has the stronger confirmed starter profile.
    • White Sox have the current one-game record edge, 1-0 versus Detroit 0-1, though that sample is not predictive alone.
    Selective Pressure
    • Detroit's RHP split snapshot carries .313 xwOBA versus .238 for Chicago.
    • Troy Melton's .308 xwOBA allowed is stronger than Davis Martin's .347; underlying FIP/xFIP are otherwise near-even.
    • The estimated edge is only about three percentage points; ordinary MLB variance dominates.
  2. No 9th-inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor implies roughly 52% Chicago win probability; full-game total anchor centers near 8.5 runs.
    • Fitting that run environment across nine innings gives a roughly 0.48 draw baseline; NO is about 0.52 before late-inning adjustments.
    • Sharp reference agrees with the anchors: Pinnacle makes Chicago a modest favorite and prices a similarly low-eight total.
    • The flat-rate inning model is an approximation; late bullpen usage and game state are not fully observable pregame.
  3. Detroit Tigers over 2.5 team runsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed nine-man Detroit lineup has four left-handed hitters against right-handed Davis Martin; Detroit vs RHP shows .313 xwOBA and a 16.1% K rate over 31 PA.
    • Martin's preview snapshot shows .330 expected wOBA allowed and 4.64 expected ERA; Chicago's bullpen has 55 pitches over three days versus Detroit's 31.
    • Current team-vs-RHP sample is only 31 PA, and the lineup's individual 2026 batter samples are mostly 1, 5 PA.
  4. Davis Martin under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's right-handed split shows a 16.1% K rate, below the 21.5% gate.
    • Confirmed Detroit lineup averages 83.5% zone contact against Martin's right-handed matchup.
    • Martin's last-three pitch total averages 82.3, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • The 16.1% Detroit split is only 31 plate appearances, an extremely thin current-season sample.
  5. Total runs under 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact 7.5 rung: Pinnacle −134 over / +110 under devigs to 45.4% under; no-push total.
    • CWS posted vs-RHP split is .2377 xwOBA over 31 PA, assigning the under a −0.50-run ledger; Detroit is .3131.
    • The CWS hand split is only 31 PA, far below the 300-PA Full-coverage threshold; the −0.50 ledger can be overstated.
  6. Colson Montgomery hits over 0.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Batting sixth, projected 3.6 PA; vs RHP: .2402 AVG, .3579 xwOBA, 201 PA, 32.1% whiff rate.
    • Model P(hit) 60% from 22.5% per-PA after contact-risk adjustment: 1 - (1 - .225)^3.6; devigged DK/BM fair 53%, gap +7.0p.
    • Colson's 32.1% whiff rate is the clearest loss path; one strikeout-heavy game defeats the over.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Game total under 8.0 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 7.3 runs; fair total line 7.5; Under 8.0 win probability 58.8%; push probability 13.8% (inputs locked 12:40 PM CDT).
    • Verified starters Davis Martin and Troy Melton were listed at 12:40 PM CDT; their profiles show .3472 and .3077 xwOBA allowed, respectively.
    • Chicago's current versus-right-handed split shows .2377 team xwOBA; Detroit's .3131 mark is offset by a low-scoring park factor of 0.98.
    • The pregame record is marked Delayed Start: Rain; a weather-driven delay could change conditions or pitcher and bullpen availability.
  2. Game total under 8 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair total 7.4 runs; model estimates 59% to win and 13% to push (72% non-loss).
    • Current expected run prevention: Troy Melton 3.74 xERA, Davis Martin 4.64 xERA; the matchup still prices below eight.
    • Bullpens had no back-to-back relievers; Detroit used 31 pitches and Chicago 55 over the last three days.
    • Martin's 4.64 xERA and return from the injured list 19 days ago create workload and late-inning risk.
  3. Troy Melton over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −126 on DraftKings

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Official game listing reports 90 strikeouts in 110.2 current-season innings, about 7.3 K/9.
    • The 4.5 threshold is priced −126 at DraftKings, leaving a modest over-friendly number against this matchup.
    • The opposing split is extremely thin at 31 PA and may regress sharply with the actual White Sox lineup.
  4. Game total under 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  5. Game total under 8
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 8 wins at 0-7 and pushes at 8; neighboring under 7.5 loses at 8.
    • Under 8 loses at 9 or more total runs; the 8-run outcome refunds rather than wins.
  6. Game total under 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy Melton: 2.76 ERA and 3.05 ERA over his last five starts in the live pitcher profile.
    • Davis Martin: 4.10 ERA, 4.39 last-five ERA, and .347 xwOBA allowed in the live profile.
    • RHP split snapshot has Chicago at .3077 xwOBA and .3684 SLG; Rate Field carries a 98 park-runs factor.
    • Detroit's RHP split is materially stronger (.3234 xwOBA, .4093 SLG), so Martin's weaker form can produce a crooked Tigers score.
  7. Troy Melton over 4.5 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −125 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.09 season K/9; 8.27 K/9 across his last five starts.
    • White Sox lineup shows a 38.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching (31 PA).
    • Model estimate: 62% for 5+ strikeouts versus 55.6% implied at FanDuel −125.
    • The 38.7% opponent strikeout rate is an extremely thin 31-PA sample.
  8. Troy Melton 5 or more strikeouts
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy’s four verified starts averaged 5.17 IP; his 2025 regular-season K/9 was 7.10.
    • Sharp reference: Pinnacle under 4.5 at −101, identical to NO on 5+; devigged sharp NO probability is 46.9%.
    • Only four Melton starts and 31 lineup PA make the innings and matchup distributions wide.
  9. First-inning runs: No
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Announced 1-9 lineups are captured; Troy Melton's first-inning BA is .1667 over 19 PA and Davis Martin's is .2475 over 111 PA.
    • The full-game 8.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it includes later innings, tiring starters, and bullpen innings, not the opening frame.
    • The first-inning pitcher samples are thin for Melton: 5 games and 19 PA; Martin's 25-game sample is from the 2025 profile season returned by the warehouse.
  10. Andrew Benintendi under 0.5 hits
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • DraftKings +116 implies roughly 46% before margin; the under has positive value against that threshold.
    • Benintendi is 0-for-3 in the latest posted game and 0-for-3 versus right-handed pitching in today's matchup board.
    • Chicago's posted right-handed matchup sample is weak: .161 team average and .238 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • The recent-log sample is split across sparse 2025 data and one current-season game, so form reliability is limited.

Questions

Who won Tigers vs. White Sox?

The White Sox won 8-1 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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