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FinalCiti Field
Phillies85-70
7-2
Mets71-84
Score by period
Team123456789T
PHI2020000307
NYM0000011002

Top model pick, graded

Won

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings) 58¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Phillies moneyline anchor is 60%; full-game 7.5 total is priced near 51% over.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-7 on this game · +9% return

  1. Total runs under 7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsParity Desk, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Ledger: Phillies xWoba .294 vs RHP (−0.50) and ISO .089 versus Tong K/9 10.61 (−0.55), capped at −0.40 Partial; Mets ledger 0.00.
    • Partial coverage: Phillies have nine posted starters, but the Mets lineup is not captured; team split samples are only 30 and 34 PA versus hand.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle quotes under 7.5 at −105. ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-20T07:41:55-07:00.
    • Current 2026 ERA, K/9 and xERA are null for both probable starters; this is a flow call, not a projection call.
  2. Philadelphia Phillies to win2 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDeep Book, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    Deep Book
      • 3.58x is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; the order-flow edge is modest.
      Undertow
      • One current position on this game; no opposite-side holding or six-game slate spray observed.
      • Signal decay is 4.7%, clearing Undertow's live ≤5% freshness gate.
      • The game is already live, so one inning or bullpen turn can erase the current advantage.
    • Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets first-five total under 4.5 (first 5 innings)
      +72%Won

      Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Phillies moneyline anchor is 60%; full-game 7.5 total is priced near 51% over.
      • Historical MLB finals: 8,858 games averaged 9.13 runs, median 9, with a right-skewed 75th percentile of 12.
      • A fitted 7.5, 8.0 full-game environment implies roughly 3.4, 3.6 first-five runs after the starter adjustment.
      • Both anchors are Polymarket-US self-reference; the sharp sportsbook reference instead makes New York the favorite.
    • No 4th-inning draw
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US anchors: Phillies moneyline YES 60.5¢ and full-game Over 7.5 at 51¢.
      • The anchors fit a moderately low, Phillies-leaning game: roughly 7.5 total runs with a 60.5% Phillies win anchor.
      • Using the anchor-implied run split across nine innings, a single-inning draw is about 50, 52%; fitted no-draw probability is about 48, 50%.
      • Inning scoring is not flat: starter quality, bullpen timing, and the 4th-inning lineup turns can move the draw rate.
    • Philadelphia Phillies over 5.5 team runs
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi posts the game-total rung at 8.5, while adjacent team-total 50% crossings are roughly PHI 5 and NYM 2: a 1.5-run split gap, beyond the one-run tolerance.
      • Subtracting the NYM midpoint from the venue's 8.5-run game total implies a Phillies share near 6.5, above the 5.5 rung.
      • The posted Phillies lineup is verified, and Philadelphia already leads 2-0 in the top of the third.
      • The coherence fire does not identify whether the Phillies rung, Mets rung, or game-total rung is wrong.
    • Cristopher Sánchez under 6.5 strikeouts
      +67%Won

      Taken at −150 on DraftKings

      K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opposing Mets K rate is 12.5% versus left-handed pitching, well below the 21.5% gate.
      • Sánchez's K/9 has fallen from 9.45 season-long to 9.15 over his last three starts and 8.54 over his last five.
      • The live DraftKings board posts Under 6.5 at −150; Sánchez is a verified listed starter.
      • His season K/9 remains strong at 9.45, so the recent decline may regress.
    Show all 16 picks
    1. Philadelphia Phillies first-five to win (first 5 innings)
      +57%Won

      Taken at −175 on DraftKings

      PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Independent estimate: Philadelphia 66% versus roughly 60.2% devigged from the current DraftKings/FanDuel F5 board; fair price −194.
      • Sánchez is listed at 17-6 with a 2.93 ERA and 215 strikeouts; Savant shows .237 xBA, .364 xSLG, and .286 xwOBA allowed.
      • Tong’s rotation role is confirmed, but his September return lasted five innings and 87 pitches while allowing four runs.
      • Tong’s current Statcast xwOBA is reported at .274, slightly better than Sánchez’s .286; the current samples are thin.
    2. Brandon Marsh under 0.5 RBIFavorite
      +31%Won

      Taken at −325 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8 of Marsh's last 10 tracked games finished with 0 RBI (80%).
      • DraftKings −325 implies about 76.5%; the observed 80% rate is a modest 3.5-point cushion.
      • Marsh's 2026 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is .1495 versus a .2823 league baseline, 47% lower.
      • The last-10 sample spans 2025-09-24 through 2026-09-19, not a clean current-season window.
    3. New York Mets to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both starters are posted: Cristopher Sánchez and Jonah Tong; Sánchez's 2025 profile shows a 2.50 ERA and 9.45 K/9 versus Tong's 7.71 ERA over 18.67 innings.
      • Mets' current 2026 split versus left-handed pitching is .540 xwOBA in 8 PA; Phillies are at .294 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching in 30 PA.
      • Moneyline movement favors the Mets: Kalshi opened at 39.5% and is currently 40.5%, a 1.0-point move toward this side.
      • The current-season team sample is only one completed game per club; the run differential is +7 Mets versus −7 Phillies and is highly noisy.
    4. Game total under 7.5 runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −105 on BetMGM

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.1 projected total runs; fair total line 7.0; Under 7.5 win probability 58.5%; push probability 0% (release 11:40 AM CDT).
      • Philadelphia's confirmed lineup versus right-handed Jonah Tong carries a .294 team xwOBA and 30% strikeout rate in the live split snapshot.
      • Both bullpens are relatively fresh: 91 Mets pitches and 86 Phillies pitches over the prior three days; Citi Field's park factor is 94 for runs.
      • New York's live versus-lefty snapshot is explosive at .540 xwOBA, though it is based on only 8 plate appearances.
    5. Cristopher Sánchez over 6 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: 4.9 Ks; fair NO probability 62% (fair price 62¢ / approximately −163).
      • Last-four pitch counts: 95, 94, 60, 91; 83-pitch L3 average projects 5.2 innings and supports the under.
      • Confirmed Mets lineup has a 2025 known-platoon average near 18.9% K versus lefties; current 2026 sample is 12.5% K in eight PA.
      • Two confirmed Mets hitters lack established 2025 platoon samples, so the lineup-specific estimate is partly uncertain.
    6. Jonah Tong over 4.5 strikeouts
      +112%Won

      Taken at +112 on FanDuel

      Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia’s current split versus right-handed pitching shows a 30% strikeout rate and 28.2% team whiff rate.
      • FanDuel’s +112 is the best verified sportsbook price; DraftKings is +103 and Pinnacle +107.
      • Current-season granular SwStr%, rolling form, and start-log rows are not populated; the pitcher skill sample is from 2025.
    7. Game total under 8 (pushes at exactly 8; 7.32% historical exact-8 frequency)High conviction
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX prices under 8 at 53.92¢ (−117) versus adjacent under 7.5 at 49.50¢ (+102), a 4.42-point gap.
      • Confirmed starters are Cristopher Sánchez and Jonah Tong, but late lineup or weather changes could alter how the market prices the pair.
    8. Jonah Tong over 4.5 pitching strikeouts
      +110%Won

      Taken at +110 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model projects roughly 64% for 5+ strikeouts using Tong's 10.61 K/9 and a conservative workload baseline.
      • Phillies' current split shows a 30% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching, a favorable matchup signal.
      • The 16-point model-versus-price gap clears the 4-point value gate.
      • The workload baseline is uncertain; an early hook or pitch-count limit can defeat the over despite strong strikeout rate.
    9. Jonah Tong 5 or more strikeouts
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tong cleared 5+ in 3 of 5 2025 starts, averaging 4.4 K, 3.73 IP, 17.4 batters faced.
      • Philadelphia's current K rate versus right-handed pitching is 30% in 30 PA; the matchup sample is small but directionally supportive.
      • Mets bullpen logged 4.33 IP and 91 pitches over three days, supporting a longer-than-normal leash.
      • Only five 2025 starts supply the pitcher distribution: 22 K in 87 batters faced is a thin base.
    10. First-inning runs
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed 1-2-3: Lindor, Soto, Bichette; New York's current vs-lefty team xwOBA is .5403, albeit only 8 PA.
      • Jonah Tong's verified first-inning history: .400 BA, 8 hits and 4 walks in 24 PA; only 16.7% first-inning K rate.
      • Citi Field is mildly suppressive at 94 runs and 95 HR, so the case is matchup-driven rather than park-driven.
      • New York's .5403 vs-lefty xwOBA rests on just 8 PA; current individual hitter samples are also only 4-5 PA.

    Questions

    Who won Phillies vs. Mets?

    The Phillies won 7-2 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.

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