Updated
FinalComerica Park
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 9 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDetroit Tigers over 3.5 team runs 59¢
Why Ledger Balance likes it: Anchors imply about 55.5% Detroit win probability and an 8.5-run scoring center.
Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-6 on this game · −29% return
- Detroit Tigers over 3.5 team runs+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Anchors imply about 55.5% Detroit win probability and an 8.5-run scoring center.
- Empirical 7,304-game shape is right-skewed: mean 8.97 runs, median 8; fitted allocation is roughly DET 4.4, WSH 4.1.
- Main-line sharp reference agrees with the anchors: Pinnacle Detroit −129 and total 8.5.
- This is an anchor-fit estimate, not an independent team-total projection; no sharp book quotes this target.
- No 9th inning draw−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US
Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Polymarket US liquid anchors imply Detroit near 56% and an 8.5-run environment; both agree with Pinnacle's 54.8% home and 51.8% over references.
- MLB finals sample: 4,819 games, 8.82 mean runs, 8 median, 4.45 SD; the right-skewed shape supports a broad, not ultra-low, per-inning scoring baseline.
- Allocating the anchor-fitted 8.5, 8.8 runs across nine innings puts a ninth-inning tie roughly in the 50, 56% band before bullpen adjustment.
- Ninth-inning bullpen usage is not flat: Detroit has 4.33 relief innings and 95 pitches over three days versus Washington's 2.67 and 58.
- Detroit Tigers over 4.5 runs scored+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- The 9/21 lineup has 8 right-handed Tigers hitters in the first nine against confirmed lefty DJ Herz.
- Comerica's run factor is 94 and HR factor is 92, a meaningful scoring headwind.
- Daylen Lile over 0.5 hits+runs+RBIs−100%Lost
Taken at −330 on FanDuel
Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 80%: Lile's combined hits+runs+RBIs outcome landed in 8 of his last 10 games.
- −330 FanDuel implies 76.7%; the recent hit rate clears that threshold by 3.3 points before matchup.
- Detroit's 2026 team ERA is 9.00 versus a 3.64 league average, a 147% unfavorable pitching gap.
- Exactly 80% meets the gate; one miss drops the ten-game rate below threshold.
- Game total over 8.5 runs+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 9.2 projected total runs, 9.0 fair total line, 56.8% Over 8.5 win probability, 0% push probability (release: 5:13 PM CDT, 2026-09-21).
- Detroit's bullpen logged 95 pitches over 3 days versus Washington's 58, raising late-inning scoring expectancy.
- FanDuel's live Over 8.5 price is −110 at 5:13 PM CDT, below the model's 56.8% win threshold.
- Ryan has no 2026 MLB statistics in the warehouse; his recovery workload and true major-league level are unusually uncertain.
- DJ Herz 6+ strikeouts: No+33%Won
Taken at 75¢ on Kalshi
Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 4.4 Ks; the current return-to-action workload is reported around 65 pitches, below the normal YES leash.
- Herz's 2024 season K/9 was 10.76, but L3/L5 K/9 fell to 8.78/9.00; current workload insulation outweighs the raw strikeout skill.
- The roughly 65-pitch return limit comes from current reports rather than a readable official game page; a lifted cap materially improves 6+ chances.
Show all 10 picks
- Daylen Lile over 1.5 total bases−100%Lost
Taken at +123 on BetRivers
Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 60% hit rate: Lile cleared 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 appearances.
- BetRivers +123 implies 44.8%; the recent-form model is 60%, a 15.2-point margin.
- Lile is an active participant priced for this game; the prop board confirms game inclusion.
- The 10-game sample is small and may overstate current true talent.
- DJ Herz pitcher strikeouts over 4.5−100%Lost
Taken at +132 on FanDuel
+EV Volume HandicapperEven 0% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 10.76 season K/9; 9.00 K/9 across his last five starts.
- A workload blend of 4.44 recent IP/start and 4.67 season IP/start gives roughly 5.0 expected Ks.
- Simple Poisson estimate is about 53%, versus 43.1% raw break-even at +132: approximately +9.9 points.
- Herz is listed 726 days removed from his previous start, and public reports describe this as a 2026 debut after elbow surgery.
- Washington Nationals to win−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Both probable starters and all 18 lineup slots were posted at 3:00 PM PDT. This is a one-leg LEAN, not a model upgrade.
- Pinnacle is −129 on Detroit. River Ryan's current profile/model row is missing, so no projection corroborates Washington.
- Game total under 8.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Deep BookDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-21T13:11:22-07:00. DJ Herz and River Ryan are both listed as starters.
- LEAN only. Pinnacle references over 8.5 at −114 and under at +102. The sharp reference contradicts the flow.
Questions
Who won Nationals vs. Tigers?
The Tigers won 9-2 on Monday, Sep 21, 2026.