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Updated

FinalFenway Park
Cubs88-71
3-4
Red Sox85-74
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHC1200000003
BOS00102010-4

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Cubs over 1.5 team runs 79¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Anchors imply roughly 54% Cubs win probability and a 6.5-run scoring center.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-24 on this game · −24% return

  1. Chicago Cubs to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    5 modelsweak-pitcher fade ML #1180, Drift +3
    Why 5 models like it
    weak-pitcher fade ML #1180
    • Bello qualifies as vulnerable: 4.98 xERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .340 xwOBA allowed.
    • Bullpen edge: Boston has 14.0 IP/222 pitches in three days and one back-to-back arm; Chicago has 9.0/140 and none.
    • Peterson is also vulnerable: 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, while Boston's lineup faces a lefty.
    Drift
    • Cubs run differential +146 versus Boston +79; pythagorean win rates .586 versus .556.
    • Holmes: 3.25 ERA, 3.89 xERA, .304 xWOBA allowed; Gamboa: 1.16 ERA, .260 xWOBA allowed.
    • Boston is home at Fenway, where one swing can erase the starter and run-differential edge.
    Selective Pressure
    • Own blended read: Cubs approximately 55% versus the 53.5¢ US quote; modest positive gap.
    • Cubs are 88-71 with a .5864 Pythagorean win rate; Boston is 85-74 with .5562.
    • Cubs' starting lineup was not posted in the warehouse snapshot; a late scratch could erase the small edge.
    Selective Pressure
    • Cubs' 2026 pythagorean record is .5854 versus Boston's .5566.
    • David Peterson's 3.96 L5 ERA is materially better than Brayan Bello's 6.75 L5 ERA.
    • Chicago's .324 xwOBA versus right-handers is nearly identical to Boston's .326 versus left-handers.
  2. Boston Red Sox to win2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsVig Gap, Fade the Arm
    Why 2 models like it
    Vig Gap
    • Polymarket Boston price moved from 48.5¢ to 47.5¢ late, widening rather than closing the gap; Kalshi was broadly flat.
    Fade the Arm
    • Holmes' 2026 profile shows 3.83 xFIP and 3.89 xERA, while recent ERA is 9.39 over three starts and 5.08 over five.
    • Velocity is below his 91.98 mph season baseline: 91.35 last start and 91.13 across his last three tracked starts.
    • Alec Gamboa has only 31 innings and two starts in the profile, so Boston's own starter remains a substantial uncertainty.
  3. Game total over 6.5 runs2 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 7.0 projected total runs, fair total line 7.0, 55% win probability, 14.9% push probability (model released 11:35 AM CDT).
    • The confirmed lineups carry .319 CHC xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and .311 BOS xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • 64°F weather and a 14-mph wind blowing in from center field can suppress home-run carry.
    Selective Pressure
    • My estimate is approximately 54%: Bello carries a 4.49 ERA and 4.98 xERA; Peterson is at 4.96 ERA and 4.78 xERA.
    • Boston's .326 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching and Chicago's .324 versus right-handers offer no clear contact suppression.
    • Both offenses have only moderate platoon xwOBA, so 6.5 leaves limited margin for error.
  4. Chicago Cubs F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair F5 winner probabilities are Chicago 48%, Boston 31%, draw 21%; the three-way draw is modeled separately.
    • David Peterson: 3.96 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over L5; Brayan Bello: 6.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over L5, Gone-by-Six favors Chicago.
    • Top-three lineup xwOBA favors Chicago .348 to Boston .338; team splits are nearly even, Chicago .324 vs Boston .326.
    • Bello's season xERA is 4.98 versus Peterson's 4.78, while Peterson's season WHIP is 1.51; the L5 gap can regress.
  5. Chicago Cubs over 1.5 team runsFavorite
    +27%Won

    Taken at 79¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply roughly 54% Cubs win probability and a 6.5-run scoring center.
    • 2026 games totaling 6, 8 runs produced 83.3% away and 83.7% home rates for 2+ runs.
    • Re-centering that empirical right-skewed shape to this 6.5-run anchor estimates Cubs 2+ near 84%.
    • The 84% estimate depends on re-centering league scoring shape, not a team-specific run projection.
  6. First-five innings winner drawLong shot
    +376%Won

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Moneyline anchor: Cubs 53¢ YES / Red Sox 47.5¢ NO, a near-balanced game with a slight Cubs edge.
    • Total anchor: 6.5 runs, with Over 51.5¢ / Under 49¢; both liquid anchors are live and mutually consistent.
    • The anchors fit roughly 2.7, 2.9 first-five runs with near-balanced scoring, implying an F5 tie around 25, 27%.
    • The 25, 27% tie estimate is derived from full-game anchors and an approximate F5 adjustment, not a dedicated projection model.
Show all 31 picks
  1. Chicago Cubs −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US moneyline anchor makes Chicago roughly an 85.5% live winner at 3-0, top 2.
    • Full-game total anchor is Over 7.5 at 57.5c; 2026 MLB scoring averages 9.18 runs with 58.4% reaching eight.
    • The shared anchor fit places Cubs −2.5 modestly above the 56c target quote.
    • A three-run lead can disappear; the anchor fit does not uniquely determine margin variance.
  2. No 9th inning draw
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6.5-run full-game total and 53.5% Cubs moneyline anchor a low-scoring, near-balanced fitted process.
    • 2026 MLB final-game totals are right-skewed; shifting the empirical shape to the 6.5 anchor keeps per-inning ties near the low-50% range.
    • Both bullpens carry heavy recent workloads: Boston 169 pitches and Chicago 206 over three days, supporting more late-inning scoring and fewer ninth-inning ties.
    • Per-inning scoring is a thin, noisy slice; bullpen usage and game state can overwhelm the flat-rate approximation.
  3. Chicago Cubs over 3.5 team runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Alec Gamboa is the verified opposing LHP; Chicago vs LHP has .3188 xwOBA, .4447 SLG, and .1101 BB/HBP.
    • Fenway's park-factor-runs reading is 106; Boston's bullpen has logged 10.33 innings and 169 pitches over three days.
    • Chicago's lineup was not posted by MLB or captured for the Cubs at 7:36 AM PDT; composition and scratches remain unknown.
  4. Clay Holmes over 15.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 16.8 outs; 1.3-out cushion over the 15.5 line and modeled 75% clear probability.
    • Holmes cleared 15.5 outs in 4 of his last 5 starts and 6 of 8 Cubs starts.
    • Last five workload: 471 pitches across 121 batters faced, or 3.89 pitches per plate appearance; 94.2 pitches per start.
    • Only eight Cubs starts; the sample includes a 13-out miss and manager-specific hook data is proxied by team starts.
  5. Total runs over 6.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US Over 6.5 costs 0.51; Under 0.49; open/tradable, both quoted, sum 1.00 within the 3-point check.
    • Coverage Partial: both probables posted and active; Holmes 17 GS, Gamboa 2 GS; lineups 9/9; team PA 1,762/4,603 versus hand.
    • Gamboa has only 2 GS and both starter profiles lack saber completeness; this remains Partial coverage.
  6. Clay Holmes over 3.5 strikeoutsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4.8 projected strikeouts; 73% probability of 4+ clears 3.5 by 1.3 Ks.
    • Holmes produced 25 strikeouts in his last five starts, including 7.94 K/9 over 28.33 innings.
    • Confirmed Boston lineup owns 510 strikeouts in 2,485 2026 PA versus right-handers (20.5%).
    • Only 17 starts and 97 innings this season; baseline remains sample-sensitive.
  7. Jahmai Jones HRR YES 0.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full coverage: lineup posted, batting second, projected 4.3 PA; 152 PA versus left-handers (.227 AVG, .347 xwOBA).
    • Most likely loss: Peterson's strikeout/contact suppression leaves Jones with zero hit, run, and RBI despite four-plus trips.
  8. Wilyer Abreu RBIs under 0.5FavoriteHigh conviction
    +29%Won

    Taken at −345 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9 of Abreu's last 10 games stayed under 0.5 RBI (90%).
    • Abreu is confirmed batting third in Boston's starting lineup.
    • DraftKings prices the under at −345, within the extreme-chalk −300 to −1000 gate.
    • One RBI can arrive on any single, walk-driven sequence, or sacrifice situation.
  9. Chicago Cubs first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    0%Push

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair probability 59.5% (fair price about −147); FanDuel −132 is 5.5 points above the roughly 54% devig market.
    • Posted Cubs top five carry about 128 weighted wRC+ versus Boston's 102; spots 1-3 are roughly 134 versus 108.
    • Last-30-day handedness split favors Chicago: Cubs vs RHP xwOBA .338, Boston vs LHP xwOBA .301.
    • Peterson's season line remains 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, so the recent-form advantage may be noisy.
  10. Chicago Cubs spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating: Cubs −1.5 40.5%; Cubs run differential +0.92/game vs Boston +0.50.
    • David Peterson xERA 4.78 vs Brayan Bello 4.98; both listed starters are current and off the IL.
    • Cubs .424 SLG and .1145 BB/HBP rate vs RHP; Boston .411 SLG and .103 vs LHP.
    • Most likely loss is a Cubs win by exactly one run or a Boston win; run lines are high variance.
  11. 3rd-inning drawFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • The i3 Cubs share is 32.8%, versus about 21, 23% in innings 4, 8; F5 Cubs is only 34.2%, not confirming a one-inning surge.
    • F5 winner mix is Boston 42.8%, Cubs 34.2%, draw 28.9%; the full-game total is 5.5, supporting a low-scoring baseline.
    • Cubs xwOBA versus RHP Bello is .324; Boston xwOBA versus LHP Peterson is .326, a neutral third-inning matchup.
    • This is a venue-self-reference market with no sharp per-inning comparator; the structural read could simply be wrong.
  12. Chicago Cubs win the 6th inningLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cubs are 0.27 in inning 6 versus 0.31 in inning 7 and 0.30 in inning 8.
    • Full-game board favors Chicago 0.54 to Boston 0.47; F5 winner also leans Cubs, 0.45 to 0.42.
    • Bullpen regime supports Chicago: Boston has 102 pitches in three days versus Chicago's 89, both with six arms used.
    • The devigged inning-6 gap is modest: Cubs about 21.6% versus Boston 26.4%; no external sharp inning reference exists.
  13. David Peterson under 5.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on DraftKings

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 4.7 Ks; fair under-6 probability 62% (−163); −128 implies roughly 53% devigged.
    • Last-four pitch counts are 83, 85, 83, 96; last-three workload projects to 5.23 innings.
    • Season K/9 is 8.23, with 9.92 L3 and 10.08 L5; the low-K matchup offsets recent strikeout form.
    • Chicago's bullpen has thrown 12.33 innings and 206 pitches in three days, potentially extending Peterson's leash.
  14. Clay Holmes 4+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season 6.96 K/9, L3 7.04, L5 7.94; Holmes recorded 25 strikeouts across his last five starts.
    • Boston's 20.5% lineup K rate is contact-heavy and below the brief's 22% favorable threshold.
  15. Brayan Bello over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +126 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Bello’s warehouse rolling-3 profile: 18.0 IP, 304 pitches, 16.9 P/IP; workload clears the 5.0-IP gate.
    • Recent three-start Statcast fastball velocity is approximately +0.6 mph and spin approximately −32 rpm versus his 2026 baseline.
    • No decay trigger: 16.9 P/IP is below 17.5, and recent velocity/spin remain stable; his arsenal is not a two-pitch mix.
    • Cubs’ 21.5% right-handed-opponent K rate is contact-friendly; five strikeouts is not automatic.
  16. Clay Holmes over 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Holmes cleared 4.5 Ks in 3 of his last 5 starts: 5, 8, 2, 6, 4.
    • Kalshi's live 5+ contract was offered at 37¢, a price below the estimated hit rate implied by Holmes' recent K9 and workload.
    • Recent results are volatile, with 2 Ks in one of his last five starts.
  17. Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox first-five total over 4.5 runs (first 5 innings)
    +213%Won

    Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  18. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 6.5 wins at exactly 6; adjacent under 6 pushes/refunds at 6.
    • Under 6.5 loses at seven or more runs; the historical exact-six rate is not a run-projection model.
  19. Boston Red Sox +1 run line
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
  20. Clay Holmes pitching strikeouts 5 or more
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17 starts: 5+ strikeouts in 8 (47.1%); 97 innings averages 5.71 per start.
    • Times-through-order K rates: 20.8% first, 18.8% second, 14.1% third across 235 PA.
    • Holmes reached 5+ in only 2 of his last 5 starts; recent innings averaged 5.27.
  21. Boston Red Sox +1.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Holmes owns a 3.83 xFIP and 3.89 xERA, but his L3/L5 ERAs are 9.39/5.08.
    • Holmes' last-five fastball average is 90.45 mph versus a 91.98 season baseline; season CSW is only 27.6%.
    • Cashing likelihood: +1.5 protects against a narrow Cubs win; Holmes' decline helps, while Gamboa's 1.16 ERA remains the counterweight.
    • Boston's .3112 xwOBA versus right-handers is below the .315 quality threshold; the gate rests on SLG and K rate.
  22. First-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-frame scoreless rates .7561 and .7346 imply 44.5% RFI (1 − .7561 × .7346).
    • Posted lineups at 2:00 PDT put PCA/Suzuki/Busch and Anthony/Jones/Abreu atop the order.
    • Bello’s 2026 first-inning profile: .380 BA allowed, 4 HR, 20.7% K across 58 PA; Peterson: .312 BA, 2 HR, 29% K across 107 PA.
    • 20 mph wind is in from center and Fenway’s run factor is 106 but HR factor is 88, potentially reducing the main early scoring route.
  23. First-inning runs over 0.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted 9:30 AM lineups are confirmed: Boston's Anthony/Gasper/Rutschman/Abreu and Chicago's Crow-Armstrong/Suzuki/Bregman/Taylor.
    • Top-four vs-hand xwOBA is .356 Boston versus RHP and .343 Chicago versus LHP; the model is first-inning-specific, not game-total-scaled.
    • Fenway's 106 run factor supports scoring, while 14-mph wind in from center and its 88 HR factor temper the boost.
    • Alec Gamboa's first-inning sample is only 2 games and 6 PA; his zero H/BB/K shape is extremely noisy.
  24. Chicago Cubs run line −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  25. Michael Busch over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs
    +113%Won

    Taken at +113 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Busch cleared 1.5 in 3 of his last 5 games, averaging 2.0 combined H+R+RBI.
    • Boston starter Brayan Bello has a .340 season xwOBA-against; Fenway's run factor is 106.
    • Busch bats third and is confirmed in the Cubs starting lineup.
    • The recent five-game sample is thin and includes a zero in the latest game.

Questions

Who won Cubs vs. Red Sox?

The Red Sox won 4-3 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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