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Updated

FinalYankee Stadium
Orioles78-81
10-2
Yankees92-67
Score by period
Team123456789T
BAL00250111010
NYY0001000012

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 7.5 runs 37¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: PM US anchors: Yankees win 51.5% and over 5.5 runs 53.5%, implying a close, low-scoring but right-tailed game.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-7 on this game · +36% return

  1. Baltimore Orioles to win3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsAlex's Sharp Line Scanner, Parity Desk +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Alex's Sharp Line Scanner
    • Trevor Rogers: 4.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.54 xERA over 165.7 innings; Brendan Beck has an 8.22 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 7.67 innings.
    • Pinnacle's captured Yankees price moved from −134 to −103, a 31-cent move toward Baltimore.
    • Beck's 7.67-inning sample is extremely thin and could badly understate his true ability.
    Parity Desk
      • Beck has only one 2026 start and incomplete sabermetric data; his short leash creates high variance.
      Selective Pressure
      • Trevor Rogers is confirmed as Baltimore's starter: 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 8.45 K/9; he allowed one run over 8.0 innings in his last start.
      • Brendan Beck has only 7.7 major-league innings in 2026, allowing 7 earned runs with 5 walks; the Yankees' scheduled starter is a major uncertainty point.
      • New York is 45-33 at home with a 3.20 season ERA; Baltimore is 39-42 away with a 4.08 team ERA.
    • New York Yankees not to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Ricky MLB Moneyline QuantUp 86% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: NYY 63% true win probability (12,600/20,000); conservative fair −138; medium confidence; 3:05 PM CDT; Beck's .435 xwOBA allowed and NYY's .334 xwOBA versus lefties support the pick, while bullpen fatigue and Beck's tiny sample are key risks.
      • Data quality 6/10: raw 63% probability is haircut to 58% conservative probability for Beck's 34-batter sample and missing park/umpire-fit inputs.
      • Yankees are 92-67 with a +143 run differential and .598 pythagorean win rate; Baltimore is 78-81 with a −26 differential and .483 pythagorean rate.
      • Brendan Beck has only 7.2 major-league innings this season, making his 8.22 ERA, 10.53 FIP, and .435 xwOBA allowed highly unstable.
    • Game total over 7.5 runs
      +170%Won

      Taken at 37¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • PM US anchors: Yankees win 51.5% and over 5.5 runs 53.5%, implying a close, low-scoring but right-tailed game.
      • Recent 733-game MLB finals average 8.85 runs and median 8; calibrating that empirical shape to the 5.5 anchor gives roughly 39% over 7.5.
      • The PM US ladder prices over 7.5 at 33¢, below the fitted roughly 39% tail probability.
      • The game is 0-0 through two innings; six more runs are needed from the remaining seven innings.
    • First-five innings drawLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game moneyline is essentially balanced: Polymarket US quotes BAL 50¢ and NYY 50.5¢; Pinnacle is also near 50/50.
      • Full-game total ladder implies roughly 7 runs: over 5.5 at 63¢, over 6.5 at 54.5¢, over 7.5 at 42¢.
      • The F5 total ladder centers near 3.5 runs: over 2.5 at 67¢, over 3.5 at 52¢, over 4.5 at 36¢.
      • Flat-rate allocation from full-game anchors does not fully model inning sequencing or starter-quality asymmetry.
    • No 9th-inning draw
      +178%Won

      Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Moneyline anchor implies a near-even game: Yankees about 51.5% to win.
      • Total anchor centers the run environment near 6.5, 7 runs, but does not support a 76% ninth-inning tie.
      • 2026 empirical ninth-inning ties were 71.7% in 0, 6-run games, 61% at exactly 7, and 47.5% at 8+.
      • Low-scoring games increase tie probability; the fitted ninth-inning tie estimate is only around 60%, not a large separation from the market.
    • New York Yankees over 3.5 team runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed nine-man Yankees lineup is posted: Goldschmidt, Rice, Ramos, Rosario, Lombard Jr., Jones, Volpe, Sánchez, Caballero.
      • Yankees versus right-handed pitching: .341 team xwOBA, .248 average and .443 slugging across 5,956 PA; Brendan Beck is confirmed RHP.
      • Beck has only one 2026 start in the game log: 3.67 IP, 5 ER and 87 pitches, leaving a specific starter-quality gap versus a generic split.
      • Beck's one-start sample is extremely thin, and his current pitcher-profile row is absent; his true baseline could be materially better.
    Show all 18 picks
    1. Baltimore Orioles spread +1.5Favorite
      +45%Won

      Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's exact rung is Yankees −1.5 +202 / Orioles +1.5 −229, devigging to 67.8% Orioles cover.
      • Power rating is 71% Orioles cover: Rogers 3.54 xERA versus Beck 8.22 ERA, plus the run-line cushion.
      • Baltimore's bullpen has used 91 pitches in three days versus New York's 224, a late-game workload edge.
      • Yankees carry a +143 run differential versus Baltimore's −26; that structural gap can produce a two-run home win.
    2. Over total 6.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model 56% over: season runs/game are Yankees 4.60 and Orioles 4.43.
      • Brendan Beck owns an 8.22 ERA and .4347 xwOBA allowed in 7.67 innings; Trevor Rogers has a 3.54 xERA.
      • Yankee Stadium is 102 runs / 122 home runs by the current park-factor read; forecast is 71°F with 20-mph wind.
      • The Beck sample is only 7.67 innings; regression toward a normal starter performance would hurt the over.
    3. Game total runs over 6.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 8.4 projected total runs; fair total line 8.0; Over 6.5 win probability 72.1%; push probability 0% (model run 2:35 PM CDT).
      • Brendan Beck: 8.22 ERA, 10.53 FIP, .4347 xwOBA allowed, and 12.27 recent ERA across his last three starts.
      • Baltimore's confirmed lineup includes Pete Alonso (.3983 xwOBA), Coby Mayo (.3377), and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.3383).
      • Trevor Rogers has a 3.54 xERA and .291 xwOBA allowed, with a 2.53 ERA over his last three starts.
    4. Trevor Rogers 6+ strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Confirmed Yankees lineup projects 24.4% K rate versus left-handers across 1,020 lineup-specific PA, a favorable 24%-27% matchup.
      • Rogers cleared 94 pitches in each of his last four starts; last-three average is 99.3 pitches, or 6.2 projected innings.
      • Season K/9 is 8.31, rising to 8.86 over the last three and 10.64 over the last five; he recorded 10, 5, 6, 11, and 7 Ks in his last five.
      • Rogers' last-five surge is a small sample, and his season start average is only 5.28 Ks.
    5. Trevor Rogers over 6.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

      Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Rogers averages 7.0 strikeouts over his last three starts (10, 5, 6).
      • Rogers' season K/9 is 8.31, below his recent 10.64 L5 figure.
    6. Baltimore Orioles–New York Yankees over 7.5 total runs
      +150%Won

      Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket

      Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
    7. New York Yankees run line −1
      +138%Won

      Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX prices Yankees −1 at 41.67c (+140) versus Yankees −1.5 at 33.56c (+198): only an 8.11-point venue gap.
      • Yankees −1 loses on any Orioles win, and a Yankees win by two or more is required for a cash.
    8. Game total over 7 runs
      +122%Won

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesUp 1% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Over 7 pushes at exactly 7 total runs; over 7.5 loses on that outcome.
      • ProphetX prices over 7 at 45.45¢ versus over 7.5 at 40.98¢: only a 4.47¢ premium for the push option.
      • Over 7 loses at six or fewer total runs; this is not a run-projection claim.
    9. New York Yankees to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Beck owns a 6.70 xFIP, 10.53 FIP and 8.22 ERA in only 7.67 innings.
      • Posted Yankees lineup: .3246 xwOBA and .4182 SLG versus right-handers; the platoon gate clears.
      • ProphetX is near the sharp reference range (−103 to −111); the projection says a coin-flip price still understates Beck's liability.
      • Yankees relief corps logged 224 pitches over three days with one back-to-back reliever; an early exit can fail to convert.
    10. Game total over 6.5 runs
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Yankee Stadium HR factor is 122, wind is 20 mph, and Pinnacle posts 7 over +105.
      • Brendan Beck is confirmed for New York after 7.67 season innings with an 8.22 ERA; New York's bullpen has thrown 12.67 innings and 224 pitches in three days.
      • ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-25 12:31:36pm pt; lineup and both probable starters were confirmed at 12:30pm pt.
      • LEAN, not RECOMMENDED: the 9.7x size ratio is below the 10x gate.
    11. New York Yankees run line −2.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 24¢ on ProphetX

      Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
      Why it likes it
      • Opposite Orioles +2.5 carried $397 at −340 on the board read; quoted-size ratio was 56.3x.
      • Same board's Yankees moneyline carried $18,457 versus Baltimore's $54; two markets aligned.
      • live Pinnacle Yankees −115; ProphetX board as_of_pt 2026-09-25 10:36:23 PDT.
      • A second ProphetX event board leaned Baltimore moneyline 6.5x; duplicate-board conflict lowers conviction.
    12. Baltimore Orioles +1.5Favorite
      +52%Won

      Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

      UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
      Why it likes it
      • Signal decay is live at approximately 0.8% for SDTrading and 0.7% for pirate06, both below the 5% freshness gate.
      • Mapping is exact: global New York Yankees −1.5 spread market to Polymarket US Baltimore Orioles +1.5.
      • Polymarket US is open and tradable with both sides quoted: Orioles +1.5 at 0.66, Yankees −1.5 at 0.34.
      • The Yankees remain the moneyline favorite; a two-run-or-more New York win loses the position.

    Questions

    Who won Orioles vs. Yankees?

    The Orioles won 10-2 on Friday, Sep 25, 2026.

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