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FinalCitizens Bank Park
Brewers98-58
4-6
Phillies86-70
Score by period
Team123456789T
MIL0001020014
PHI02100003-6

Top model pick, graded

Won

Philadelphia Phillies to win −142

Why Brewing MLB Ml likes it: Wheeler: 2.99 ERA, 2.99 xERA, 10.60 K/9; May: 4.61 ERA, 4.42 xERA, 8.77 K/9.

Brewing MLB MlUp 27% return this season · 70 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-19 on this game · −21% return

  1. Philadelphia Phillies to win3 models agree
    +70%Won

    Taken at −142 on FanDuel

    3 modelsBrewing MLB Ml, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • Wheeler: 2.99 ERA, 2.99 xERA, 10.60 K/9; May: 4.61 ERA, 4.42 xERA, 8.77 K/9.
    • Phillies bullpen used 51 pitches and 2.67 innings over three days; Milwaukee used 95 pitches and 6.0 innings.
    • Historical pattern is Grade B: exactly 50 games, not the 100-game Grade A threshold.
    Selective Pressure
    • Wheeler: 2.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and 2.99 xERA this season.
    • May: 4.61 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 4.42 xERA; the starting-pitcher gap drives a 59% Phillies estimate.
    • Milwaukee is 7-2 across its listed September 11, 20 games; Philadelphia is 3-4 in its listed span.
    Fade the Arm
    • Dustin May's 2026 third-time-through-order xwOBA is .374 versus .308 first time and .314 second time: clear contact-quality decay.
    • Philadelphia's confirmed lineup faces a right-hander with .3179 season xwOBA, .4004 SLG, and only a 20.5% strikeout rate versus RHP.
    • May's 3.94 xFIP and 4.42 xERA are better than his 4.61 ERA, so the TTO signal could overstate his true liability.
  2. Dustin May over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +112 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected 4.3 Ks; 62% probability of 4+ versus the 3.5 line.
    • May owns a 22.9% 2026 K rate across 599 batters faced and 29 starts.
    • The 0.8-K projection gap is modest; 62% sits in the low-conviction band.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 56% estimated true probability versus 47.2% DraftKings break-even: +8.8 points.
    • May struck out 42 batters in his last 10 starts, averaging 4.2 per start; he cleared 3.5 in 7 of 10.
    • May averaged only 4.27 innings over those 10 starts, with two outings of two innings or fewer.
  3. Zack Wheeler under 6.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +105 on BetMGM

    2 modelsK’s, Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    Why 2 models like it
    K’s
    • 177 Ks in 150.1 2026 IP (10.60 K/9); last three starts produced 23 Ks in 20 IP.
    • Projected workload is roughly 5.78 IP and 22.6 TBF; opponent-adjusted expected Ks are approximately 6.3.
    • The edge is modest near the threshold; a normal high-variance 7-K outing beats the position.
    Slate K Model · Sharp Reference Layer
    • A 23.1 projected-batter Poisson-binomial special case uses Wheeler's .2955 K rate, recent 9.9 K/9, and Milwaukee's .223 RHP K rate.
    • BetMGM, BetOnline, and Pinnacle also sit near even on the under, while FanDuel is −113 on the over; the split supports a soft-price divergence.
    • Wheeler averaged 6.6 strikeouts over his last five starts; seven Ks loses the ticket immediately.
  4. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia's Polymarket US moneyline anchor is about 80%; the full-game 6.5 total anchor implies a low-scoring environment centered near 7 runs.
    • In 2,343 completed 2026 games, the total-run mean was 8.97, median 8, and standard deviation 4.51; at exactly 7 runs, the underdog +1.5 covered 72.7% in the empirical sample.
    • The live spread ladder prices Brewers +1.5 YES at 35.5c but Brewers +2.5 YES at 74c, implying an implausibly large 38.5-point mass on exactly a two-run loss.
    • The game is already live at 0-0 in the bottom of the second with one out; in-game state can change the remaining-run distribution quickly.
  5. First-five total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply a 57% Philadelphia win probability and a 7.5-run environment with roughly 54% under 7.5.
    • Historical 2026 shape: among 2,339 regular games, F5 over 4.5 was 18.6% when full-game total was ≤7 and 73.6% when it was >7.
    • This is the largest anchor-derived disagreement among eligible non-moneyline rungs; the sharp sportsbook total also centers at 7, 7.5.
    • The conditional empirical mapping is a flat process approximation, not a pitcher-specific projection.
  6. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    +270%Won

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue anchors imply Phillies win ~56.5% and a total environment centered near 7.5 runs.
    • 2026 MLB empirical data: 2,338 ninth innings drew 66.3%; low-total games at 77.4%, versus 54.3% in 10+ run games.
    • The ninth inning is structurally unusual because the bottom half can be unplayed when Philadelphia leads.
Show all 27 picks
  1. Milwaukee Brewers under 1.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia’s team-total midpoint is about 4 runs and Milwaukee’s about 2; their 6-run sum is 1 run below the game-total midpoint near 7.
    • Zack Wheeler owns a .268 expected wOBA allowed and 2.99 expected ERA this season; his current-season last-three ERA is 0.90.
    • Milwaukee has 0 runs, 0 hits and 3 strikeouts through the live top of the third; under 1.5 needs the Brewers held to 0 or 1.
    • Milwaukee’s confirmed lineup has a .3285 team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, so the matchup is not uniformly weak.
  2. Zack Wheeler over 17.5 outs recorded
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −147 on DraftKings

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 18.8 outs, 1.3 above the 17.5 line; model clear probability 66%.
    • Wheeler cleared 17.5 outs in 17 of 26 starts; his last five were 21, 21, 18, 18, 12 outs.
    • Last-five workload averaged 101.4 pitches; he has 25 starts under the current Phillies manager, averaging 17.44 outs.
    • Philadelphia starter rows under the current manager average only 16.73 outs across 128 starts, below Wheeler's pitcher-specific baseline.
  3. Philadelphia Phillies −1.5
    +152%Won

    Taken at +152 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Zack Wheeler owns a 2.99 xERA versus Dustin May's 4.42 xERA in the confirmed matchup.
    • FanDuel moved Philadelphia from +180 to +152 on the run line, a 28-cent move exceeding the brief's 15-cent flag.
    • Philadelphia's bullpen has used 5.33 innings over three days versus Milwaukee's 8.0, a workload edge late.
    • Philadelphia is 4-6 over its last 10 while Milwaukee is 8-2; the recent-form signal conflicts with the pitcher edge.
  4. Total runs over 7.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle 7.0: Over −118 / Under +105 devigs to 52.6% over conditional; the 7.5 rung is handled as derived reference.
    • Wheeler xFIP 3.12 versus May 3.94; both starters confirmed, 26/29 starts, and both nine-man lineups posted.
    • Ledger: Citizens Bank Park factor 106 adds 0.15 runs; no bullpen fatigue, MIL 8.0, PHI 2.67 IP over three days, b2b 0.
    • Pinnacle is 7.0 while this contract is 7.5; SD 4.3 and no-push conditioning may misstate the tail.
  5. Brandon Marsh HRR YES 0.5
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marsh bats eighth with projected 3.6 PA; versus righties: .2688 average, .3216 xwOBA, 425 PA.
    • Derived same-event reference: hit 49.5%, run 29.5%, RBI 23%; union 72.6%, 12% correlation haircut gives fair HRR 63.9%.
    • Batting eighth projects fewer opportunities than the 4.3-PA top-of-order baseline.
  6. Over total 7.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 run environment: Milwaukee has 802 runs and +202 differential; Philadelphia has 697 runs and only +29 differential.
    • Milwaukee owns .3285 xwOBA versus right-handers; Philadelphia's bullpen has logged 5.33 innings and 137 pitches over three days.
    • Movement is flat: ProphetX Over 7.5 opened 46.5c and is now 46.3c (−0.2 points); Pinnacle's exact-rung +107 is unchanged.
    • Zack Wheeler's 2.99 xERA and 10.6 K/9 can suppress Milwaukee enough to keep the game below 7.5.
  7. Milwaukee Brewers to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIL +202 run differential versus PHI +29 through 156 games: +1.29 versus +0.19 runs/game.
    • Independent power rating gives Milwaukee 47.5% after team efficiency, starter, home-field, park and weather inputs.
    • Pinnacle exact-rung devigged reference is Milwaukee 44%; +127 implies 44.1%; model gap is 3.5 points.
    • Wheeler owns a 2.99 xERA and 27.9% CSW versus May's 4.42 xERA; Philadelphia has the starter edge.
  8. Philadelphia Phillies 7th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7th-inning Phillies 19¢ trails Brewers 21¢, unlike innings 6 and 8 where Phillies lead 25¢, 15¢ and 25¢, 14¢.
    • F5 board favors Philadelphia 48¢, 36¢; full-game moneyline favors Philadelphia 56.5¢, supporting a Phillies direction rather than Milwaukee in the late-middle frame.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen has used 6 arms for 6.0 innings and 95 pitches over three days; Philadelphia has used 3 arms for 2.67 innings and 51 pitches.
    • The 7th-inning three-way market still prices a 58¢ draw; a scoreless or tied frame beats both team outcomes.
  9. Game total under 7.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.1 runs, fair total line 7.0, Under 7.5 win probability 57.8%, push probability 0%; released 5:10 PM CDT and priced at 5:11 PM CDT.
    • The 62°F drizzle and 9-mph wind in from right field at Citizens Bank Park are modestly unfavorable to carry.
    • The official 1, 9 lineups and both listed starters were verified pregame at 5:10 PM CDT; the posted 7.5 is above the model's 7.0 fair line.
    • Dustin May has a .322 xwOBA allowed and 4.86 ERA over his last five starts, giving Philadelphia a path to an early crooked number.
  10. Zack Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • FanDuel −125 is 19 cents better than DraftKings −144 on the same live 6.5-K line.
    • Wheeler owns a 10.60 season K/9 and 10.35 K/9 across his last three starts.
    • Last-three workload: 20.0 IP and 296 pitches, or 14.8 P/IP; the 5.0-IP workload gate passes.
    • Wheeler's last three starts cleared seven strikeouts twice, so this is a small recent sample.
  11. Under 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Zack Wheeler: 2.99 xERA, .268 xwOBA allowed, 10.6 K/9 over 150.3 innings.
    • Both starters are verified, off the IL, and the confirmed lineups are posted.
    • Milwaukee's .3285 xwOBA versus right-handers and Philadelphia's .3179 are not explosive matchup profiles.
    • Dustin May's 4.42 xERA and 4.85 innings per start create meaningful early-hook and run-prevention risk.
  12. First-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies first-inning scoreless rate is 67.5%; Brewers are 69.8%; complement-based YRFI baseline is 52.9%.
    • May has allowed a .261 first-inning batting average and 4 homers in 124 first-inning PA.
    • Phillies top four include Schwarber and Harper; their team xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is .318.
    • Wheeler is dominant: 34.6% first-inning strikeout rate and .200 first-inning batting average allowed.
  13. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers +1.5 wins on a Brewers win or one-run Phillies win; it has no push.
    • Leaguewide 2021, 25 margin frequency is not a Brewers-Phillies matchup projection.
  14. Bryce Harper over 0.5 home runsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 13¢ on Kalshi

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Harper hit 17 home runs in 351 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching in 2025 (4.8% HR/PA).
    • Citizens Bank Park carries a 111 home-run factor, and Dustin May's current profile shows a 1.43 HR/9.
    • Harper is listed third in the confirmed Phillies starting lineup; May is the confirmed Milwaukee starter.
    • A home-run prop has wide single-game variance even with four-plus expected plate appearances.
  15. Trea Turner over 0.5 hitsFavorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at −230 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 76% versus 69.7% implied by −230; clears the 4-point value gate.
    • Turner hit in 7 of his fallback last 10 appearances (70%), clearing the 60% form threshold.
    • 2025 versus right-handed pitching: .295 average with 118 hits in 400 at-bats.
    • A four-at-bat baseline is volatile; hard contact can still produce outs.
  16. Zack Wheeler fewer than 7 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wheeler reached 7+ Ks in 11 of 25 2026 starts; the latest five were 5, 9, 9, 6, 4 Ks.
    • Nine strikeout contracts screened; eight usable after excluding May 8+ No at placeholder 0.99. Wheeler's 5+, 8+ ladder is monotone: 0.81, 0.69, 0.53, 0.37.
    • The model edge is small: 0.54 under probability versus 0.50 sharp fair probability; ordinary variance dominates.
  17. Philadelphia Phillies run line −1
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Dustin May: 4.61 ERA, 4.86 L5 ERA, and recent 95.08 mph fastball versus 95.53 mph season profile.
    • May's third-time-through-order xwOBA is .374 versus .308 first time through; the decay supports an opponent run-line position.
    • Cashing likelihood is driven by May's TTO vulnerability and Wheeler limiting Milwaukee; price quality is the +113 American exchange quote, represented at 46.95¢ for grading.
    • Most likely loss: May exits before the third time through and Wheeler keeps Milwaukee within one run.
  18. First-inning runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted top threes are strong: Milwaukee xwOBA .3545/.3432/.3432; Philadelphia .3655/.2952/.3808.
    • Dustin May's first-inning shape is permissive: .2613 BA, 13 walks and 4 HR across 124 PA; both teams' top orders are confirmed.
    • Citizens Bank Park factors favor offense: 106 runs and 111 HR; full-game total 7/7.5 is NOT a valid RFI reference because it covers different innings and participants.
    • Drizzle and 9-mph wind in from right field may slightly suppress the park-based offense case.
  19. Philadelphia Phillies spread +1.5Favorite
    +43%Won

    Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle moneyline makes Philadelphia −134; the captured MLB board was current at 3:04 PM PT.
    • Zack Wheeler has a 2.99 ERA and 1.06 WHIP versus Dustin May at 4.61 and 1.31; both posted lineups were observed at 3:00 PM PT.
    • Philadelphia can lose by two or more runs; +1.5 does not protect against a multi-run defeat.
  20. Game total under 8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's captured total is 7.0, under +105. Context only.
    • Coverage: Wheeler and May posted; nine starters per side listed; board pull 13:11:39 PDT.
    • One board snapshot; persistence and refill history are unobserved.
  21. Under 8.5 total runsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Signal decay is approximately 0.8%; no opposing holding, six-game spray, or fragmented-fill market-maker proxy fired for this position.
    • Polymarket US `tsc-mlb-mil-phi-2026-09-22-8pt5` is open and tradable, with Under 62¢ / Over 38.5¢ genuinely quoted.
    • Wheeler brings a 2.99 ERA, 10.6 K/9 and .268 xwOBA against; 8.5 supplies cushion over the captured 7-7.5 main totals.
    • Milwaukee owns a .3285 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, and May has a 4.61 ERA with a 4.86 L5 ERA.

Questions

Who won Brewers vs. Phillies?

The Phillies won 6-4 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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