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FinalOracle Park
Dodgers98-62
4-3
Giants65-95
Score by period
Team123456789T
LAD0012000014
SF0010001103

Top model pick, graded

Won

No 9th-inning draw 39¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: PM US anchors: LAD win 68¢; full-game over 6.5 44.5¢, a low, Dodgers-favored run picture.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 17-10 on this game · +12% return

  1. Matt Wilkinson under 3.5 strikeouts5 models agree
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on BetMGM

    5 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts +3
    Why 5 models like it
    K’s
    • 18.2% season K rate; 17.1% over his last five starts (14 Ks in 82 BF).
    • L5 workload averaged 3.93 IP and 63.8 pitches; projected opportunity is about 18 TBF.
    • His latest start reached five innings and 76 pitches with six Ks, exceeding the recent baseline.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Wilkinson averages 6.57 K/9 and 63.8 pitches per start; his last five K totals are 6, 2, 2, 2, 4.
    • His most recent start produced six strikeouts in five innings, showing the line can be beaten with normal efficiency.
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • L5 strikeout rate remains modest at 6.41 K/9 despite a higher 7.71 K/9 L3 reading.
    • Only five 2026 starts and 24.67 innings make the workload estimate thin.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated P(3 or fewer Ks) 65% versus FanDuel break-even 54.1%: +10.9 percentage points.
    • Wilkinson owns a 6.57 K/9 and averages only 3.93 innings and 63.8 pitches across five 2026 starts.
    • Five starts and 24.7 innings is a thin workload sample; the innings estimate could be wrong.
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsMLB ML Deep Dive, Parity Desk
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Estimated Dodgers win probability 76%; fair line approximately −317.
    • Blake Snell: 1.86 ERA, 12.1 K/9, .228 xwOBA allowed; Matt Wilkinson: 3.65 ERA, 6.57 K/9, .277 xwOBA allowed.
    • Snell has only 38.7 innings this season, so his excellent rates have meaningful sample uncertainty.
    Parity Desk
    • DraftKings −287 (74.2%) and FanDuel −300 (75%) imply higher Dodgers costs; 72.0¢ exchange price wins.
    • LAD versus L xwOBA .3338 clears .315; SF .2948 versus L creates a −0.50-run opponent ledger adjustment.
    • Wilkinson has only 5 starts and 24.67 innings; his unfamiliarity creates substantial single-game variance.
  3. Any run first inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US full-game total anchor: over 7.5 is 46.5%, implying a lower-scoring environment than the 2026 baseline.
    • Current-season empirical totals: 58.5% over 7.5 across 2,889 games; calibrating the lower anchor to first-inning scoring gives roughly 48, 50% YRFI.
    • Moneyline and total anchors agree with the sharp sportsbook reference, strengthening the internal-coherence read.
    • The first-inning calibration is empirical thinning, not a bespoke game model; the edge is modest.
  4. No 9th-inning draw
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors: LAD win 68¢; full-game over 6.5 44.5¢, a low, Dodgers-favored run picture.
    • 2026 completed-game totals: median 9, mean 9.19, p75 12; this board is materially the low-scoring tail.
    • Ninth-inning NO costs 39¢; late-inning scoring is no more draw-prone than the low-scoring early baseline.
    • The inning contract is thin; its 68¢ yes / 39¢ no spread leaves execution and fair-value uncertainty.
  5. San Francisco Giants under 2.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted Giants lineup averages .2728 xwOBA and .2184 AVG over its last 14, versus .2948 team xwOBA against left-handed pitching.
    • Blake Snell is confirmed left-handed with .2281 xwOBA allowed; his last five starts show 1.06 WHIP and 12.17 K/9.
    • Oracle Park’s 90 run factor suppresses the baseline; the venue’s own 4.5-plus-2.5 team-total medians sum to 7.0 versus a 7.5 game total, not a one-run coherence fire.
    • Dodgers relief has logged 7.67 innings and 115 pitches in three days; Snell’s 83-pitch average can expose a tired late-inning bullpen.
  6. Game total under 7.5
    +84%Won

    Taken at −119 on DraftKings

    Rotation WatchUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blake Snell: 1.86 season ERA, .2281 xwOBA allowed; last five starts show 0.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 12.17 K/9.
    • San Francisco's .2948 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching is a favorable offensive matchup for Snell.
    • Bullpen workload is moderate rather than extreme: Los Angeles 7.67 IP/115 pitches and San Francisco 7.67 IP/127 pitches over three days.
    • The Dodgers own a .3338 xwOBA versus lefties, creating the clearest path to an early over.
Show all 23 picks
  1. Matt Wilkinson pitching outs under 14.5
    +126%Won

    Taken at +126 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 5 recent starts stayed below 15 outs; the latest five-start average is 11.8 outs.
    • Wilkinson averages 63.8 pitches per start this season, well below the 85-pitch leash warning.
    • Dodgers have a 110.8 season wRC+ and a .3479 wOBA proxy versus left-handers over the last 30 days.
    • Wilkinson did reach 18 outs in one of his last five starts, so the line is not a clean sweep.
  2. Matt Wilkinson under 14.5 outs recorded
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on BetMGM

    Pesto ChangeupUp 9% over 82 picks
    Why it likes it
    • a recent six-inning start could beat the under; G2: positive zone fit could buy a turn; G3: efficient contact could create quick outs.
    • 2026 GS>0 row: 15.49 P/IP, 63.8 P/start, 3.93 IP/start; same starter role across five formal starts. SF bullpen: 4.0 IP, 45 pitches, four arms over three days. LAD platoon xwOBA is .3338, rank 1/30, triggering Law 3 neither. Project 58-63 pitches and 6-9 outs (20%), 10-14 (38%), 15+ (42%); model fair under 14.5 is 58%.
    • positive fit_z +2.74 can steal strikes and buy TTO3; the measured TTO2 cap, T3 decay and G3 minus K/whiff matchup outweigh it. Confidence steps down to medium.
  3. Scott Bandura under 0.5 RBIFavorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at −630 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 of 10 recent games stayed under 0.5 RBI (zero RBI in every game).
    • 0.09 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching, 70% below the .309 league average.
    • Confirmed in San Francisco's starting lineup batting eighth against projected starter Blake Snell.
    • Only 7 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching; the split is extremely thin.
  4. Los Angeles Dodgers inning 5 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 27¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Inning 5 quotes LAD 0.27 / SF 0.22 / draw 0.62; innings 3, 4 and 6 quote SF only 0.17.
    • F5 winner favors LAD 0.47 to SF 0.33; full-game LAD is 0.68 on the same venue.
    • Wilkinson projects 3.93 IP versus Snell's 4.83, putting SF's fifth against Snell and LAD against relief.
    • Either starter may leave earlier than projected; fifth-inning pitch counts and bullpen roles are unknown.
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers over 7.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.9 runs; fair total line 7.9; win probability 55%; push probability 0% (model release 2:35 PM CDT).
    • Official 1, 9 lineups and listed starters were locked at 2:30 PM CDT: Blake Snell vs Matt Wilkinson.
    • LAD posted a .3338 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; SF was only .2948 versus lefties, but the Dodgers' lineup strength drives the projection.
    • Blake Snell’s 2026 profile shows a 1.86 ERA, 12.1 K/9 and .2281 xwOBA allowed; a dominant start is the clearest under path.
  6. Matt Wilkinson 5+ strikeouts: NoFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 3.5 Ks: 4.75 projected innings from a 76-pitch L3 average × 6.57 season K/9.
    • Dodgers' confirmed nine-man lineup is only 18.4% K versus left-handed pitching (235 K in 1,277 PA).
    • Wilkinson's last five starts produced 14 Ks total (6, 2, 4, 2, 0); the last four pitch counts were 76, 62, 90, 66.
    • His last outing produced six Ks in 76 pitches, so a repeat of that efficiency beats the NO.
  7. Full-game total under 7.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model cash probability: 67%; fair total 6.4 runs versus the 7.5 market.
    • Snell allows .2281 xwOBA with 33.1% strikeouts; San Francisco's recent vs-L xwOBA is only .2936.
    • Giants' season wRC+ is 97.2; their confirmed lineup is mostly below-average contact/damage production.
    • Wilkinson averages 3.93 innings and 63.8 pitches; a short outing exposes San Francisco to more Dodgers at-bats.
  8. Game total over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  9. First-inning runs: No
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi YRFI is 42.5% mid; buying NO at 58¢ leaves a meaningful gap to the model's mid-60s NRFI estimate.
    • Snell's 2026 first-inning sample allowed a .1786 average with zero homers across 30 PA; Wilkinson's low-velocity profile is mitigated by a .2772 xwOBA allowed.
    • Oracle Park suppresses scoring (90 run factor, 79 HR factor); open 69°F conditions and both positive pitcher called-strike fit deltas support the NRFI side.
    • The Dodgers' posted top four are dangerous against lefties: Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández show .3791 and .3955 split xwOBA.
  10. San Francisco Giants spread +1 (push if Dodgers win by exactly 1)
    0%Push

    Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • this exact +1 contract refunds a one-run Dodgers win; Giants moneyline +250 loses that same result.
    • The neighboring Giants +1.5 is +140 and cannot push; the whole-number rung therefore carries a distinct refund state, not an interchangeable half-point contract.
    • A one-run Dodgers win refunds rather than wins; the contract still loses on any Dodgers win by 2 or more.
  11. Los Angeles Dodgers spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blake Snell: 1.86 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and .228 xwOBA allowed across 38.67 innings.
    • Dodgers versus left-handed pitching: .334 xwOBA and .423 SLG; San Francisco: .295 and .366.
    • Snell's sample is only 8 starts and 38.67 innings; the dominant rates may regress.
  12. Los Angeles Dodgers first-five to win (first 5 innings)Favorite
    +34%Won

    Taken at −298 on DraftKings

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Snell: 1.86 ERA, .2281 xwOBA allowed, and 12.10 K/9 this season.
    • Wilkinson: .2772 xwOBA allowed; his last-five ERA is 4.58 versus 3.65 season ERA.
    • Dodgers post a .3338 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; Giants are at .2948 versus lefties.
    • Wilkinson has only 24.67 innings and five starts; his expected-performance sample is thin.
  13. Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matt Wilkinson owns a 4.81 xFIP versus a 3.65 ERA, with a 114.4 xFIP-minus indicating meaningful regression risk.
    • The Dodgers' posted lineup clears the left-handed matchup gate: .3338 xwOBA, .4225 SLG and only a 20% strikeout rate versus LHP.
    • Wilkinson's five-start ERA is 4.58, and his last three outings lasted only 5.0, 3.0 and 2.0 innings; workload fragility supports the fade.
    • Most likely loss: Blake Snell suppresses San Francisco while Los Angeles wins by one run, missing the −1.5 margin.
  14. First-inning runs over 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted Betts/Ohtani/Smith average .364 xwOBA versus LHP; Wilkinson’s first-inning profile is .250 BA, 14.3% K, and 1 HR in 21 PA.
    • The full-game 7.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it answers a different distribution across different innings.
    • Only five Wilkinson first-inning games/21 PA and eight Snell games/30 PA make the starter samples thin.
  15. Los Angeles Dodgers run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION. Snell: 1.86 ERA and 12.10 K/9 in 38.2 IP; Wilkinson: 3.65 ERA and 6.57 K/9 in 24.2 IP.
    • Cross-market coherence is incomplete: total over 7 is heavily stacked, but under 7.5 is heavily stacked.
  16. Total runs over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blake Snell and Matt Wilkinson are confirmed; posted lineups contain 18 starters. Wind is 9 mph out to center field.
    • Snell has a 1.86 ERA and 12.10 K/9; a dominant start can hold the game under 7.5.
  17. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases
    +113%Won

    Taken at +113 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25 total bases in his last 10 games: 2.50 per game versus the 1.5 line.
    • Recent slugging is .815 over his last 7 and .691 over his last 14.
    • Dodgers post a .3338 xwOBA and only 20% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching.
    • Last-10 production is a modest 46-plate-appearance sample and can regress sharply.

Questions

Who won Dodgers vs. Giants?

The Dodgers won 4-3 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.

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