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Updated

FinalComerica Park
Nationals73-84
3-1
Tigers74-83
Score by period
Team123456789T
WSH0100002003
DET0000010001

Top model pick, graded

Won

Drew Anderson under 5.5 strikeouts −155

Why MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL likes it: Projected 4.6 strikeouts; 0.9 below the 5.5 line, clearing the 0.75-K gate.

MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELDown 3% this season · 117 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-13 on this game · −38% return

  1. Detroit Tigers to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsParity Desk, Selective Pressure +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Coverage: both probable/on-IL gates pass; 18 starters posted; Cornelio has 2 GS and incomplete sabermetrics, so Partial.
    • Partial coverage and only two career/current-season starts for Cornelio make the xFIP gap unstable.
    Selective Pressure
    • Detroit’s 0.55 Pythagorean win rate exceeds Washington’s 0.50.
    • Drew Anderson owns a 3.81 xERA and 0.30 xwOBA allowed.
    • Detroit’s actual 2026 record is only 74-83 versus Washington’s 73-84.
    Fade the Arm
    • Detroit’s posted lineup clears the platoon gate versus RHP: .3213 xwOBA, .4082 SLG and .2232 K% across 4,130 PA.
    • Times-through-order decay is visible: Cornelio’s TTO4 xwOBA is .3252 versus .1989 in TTO1 and .1081 in TTO2; the lineup was confirmed at 1:10 PM PDT.
    • Cornelio has only 32 IP and two listed starts; the xFIP gap is projection risk, not a stable long-run baseline.
  2. Drew Anderson under 5.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    2 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, Señor Strikeouts
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • Projected 4.6 strikeouts; 0.9 below the 5.5 line, clearing the 0.75-K gate.
    • Model gives the under approximately 68%: recent five-start output was 4, 4, 5, 5, 4 Ks.
    • Four of the last five starts reached at least 21 batters faced; a deep outing creates extra strikeout opportunities.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Anderson has recorded 4, 4, and 5 strikeouts in his last three starts; his recent K/9 is 7.31.
    • Anderson has reached at least five strikeouts in each of his last three starts; one extra punchout loses.
  3. James Wood over 0.5 hits2 models agree
    +58%Won

    Taken at −172 on DraftKings

    2 modelsPicks with pink pro reader, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks with pink pro reader
    • 70% model probability: 7 hits in his last 10 appearances.
    • 2025 vs RHP: .239 batting average across 463 plate appearances.
    • Only one 2026 pregame appearance is in the warehouse; nine-game history is mostly 2025.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Confirmed batting first at 1:40 PM PDT; top-of-order placement supports four-plus plate appearances.
    • Wood owns a .2646 season average, .410 xwOBA, and 143.3 wRC+ across 602 plate appearances.
    • Anderson has 102 innings and a 3.62 ERA; a quality start can suppress Wood's chances.
  4. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit win anchor is 59%; full-game total anchor is 8.5, a mutually consistent moderate-scoring favorite profile.
    • 2024, 26 MLB finals average 8.94, 9.20 runs with a right-skewed tail; the 8.5 anchor implies roughly 0.94 runs per inning.
    • The YRFI quote is 51% yes, leaving a 49% no-run baseline; with matching positive scores added, an inning draw models near the mid-50s, not 73%.
    • Bullpen workload can change late-inning scoring and dispersion; both teams have used 11.67, 12.33 bullpen innings over three days.
  5. Washington Nationals team total over 3.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US anchors WSH 52.5¢ and full-game over 7.5 at 50.5¢; both point to a modest Nationals edge in an ~8-run game.
    • External live reference agrees: FanDuel prices Washington −128 and DraftKings −110; both list 7.5 total.
    • Fitting the anchor distribution with a slight Washington share gives roughly 4.2 Nationals runs and about 58, 60% for 4+ runs.
    • Washington still needs three more runs over the remaining innings; a quiet middle game loses.
  6. Detroit Tigers over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Detroit lineup includes Kevin McGonigle (.3587 xwOBA) and Eduardo Valencia (.3428); Detroit posts .3213 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Washington starter Riley Cornelio has only 35.0 pitches per start and 5.0 innings across his last five-profile window.
    • Detroit’s .3213 xwOBA versus right-handers is solid but not exceptional; the lineup evidence is concentrated in a few bats.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Drew Anderson under 4.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +126 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anderson’s K/9 fell from 9.62 season-wide to 7.31 over his last three starts.
    • His last five starts averaged 85.6 pitches, below the 88-pitch hook threshold.
    • Anderson still owns a 9.62 season K/9 and a 88.0-pitch season average.
  2. Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers over 8.5 total runsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Alex's Sharp Line ScannerUp 28% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed right-handed starters allow similar opposing xwOBA: Washington .3211 and Detroit .3213.
    • Confirmed starters are Drew Anderson (3.62 ERA) and Riley Cornelio (4.22 ERA, 1.53 WHIP).
    • Comerica's 94 run factor suppresses scoring, and the market has already moved the total up to 8.5.
  3. Washington Nationals to winHigh conviction
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 45.5% Washington: current-season run differential is +0.45 runs/game versus Detroit.
    • Confirmed starters' xwOBA-against favors Washington slightly: Cornelio .296 versus Anderson .301.
    • Pinnacle −145/+134 devigs to 41.9% Washington; model-market gap is +3.6 percentage points.
    • Detroit owns the stronger listed starter ERA and WHIP: Anderson 3.62/1.28 versus Cornelio 4.22/1.53.
  4. Game total over 8.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +104 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 9.3 total runs, fair total line 9.3, Over 8.5 win probability 58.4%, push probability 0%; model locked 5:10 PM CDT.
    • Confirmed 1, 9 lineups at 5:10 PM CDT: Washington's lineup projects .322 aggregate xwOBA and Detroit's .318 against right-handed pitching.
    • Riley Cornelio owns a 4.22 ERA and .296 xwOBA allowed, while his last-five workload is only 5.0 innings; Drew Anderson's .301 xwOBA allowed adds contact quality risk.
    • The market remains anchored near 8.0 runs: Pinnacle dealt Over 8 at −115, so the model is materially opposing the sharp reference.
  5. Drew Anderson 6+ strikeouts: No
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit's confirmed nine-man lineup owns a contact-heavy 20.9% K rate versus right-handers across 1,808 PA.
    • Anderson recorded 22 Ks in his last five starts and 43 in his last ten; only one of those ten reached 6.
    • Last four starter pitch counts were 88, 86, 90, and 89; projected workload is 5.5 IP, insulating the lower side.
    • Anderson's 9.62 season K/9 and a 7-K outing in the broader sample leave a real path to six.
  6. Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers over 8 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices over 8 at 52.38c versus over 8.5 at 48.54c: only a 3.84c premium for the 8-run push.
    • Over 8 loses at seven or fewer runs; exactly 8 pushes, while over 8.5 would lose.
  7. Detroit Tigers −1 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices Detroit −1 at 50.00c versus Detroit −1.5 at 40.98c: only a 9.02c gap for the push protection.
    • Detroit −1 loses on any Washington win; a Detroit win by exactly one pushes rather than wins.
  8. Detroit Tigers run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmDown 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cornelio's season xFIP is 5.16 versus a 4.22 ERA; his underlying run prevention is materially worse.
    • Detroit versus right-handers: .3213 xwOBA, .4082 SLG, and .2232 K%; all nine starters are posted.
    • Cashing likelihood: moderate, driven by Cornelio's short-outing risk and Detroit's RHP contact quality, separate from price quality.
    • Two-start sample; Cornelio's L3/L5 ERA is 0.00 and K9 is 14.4, so recent form may be real.
  9. First-inning runs: No
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Posted lineups confirm Wood-Lile-Crews-Abrams and Torres-Lee-McGonigle-Valencia for the exact first-frame matchup.
    • Cornelio's first-inning sample: 1 hit, 1 walk, 0 HR in 10 PA; Anderson: 6 hits, 6 walks, 0 HR in 42 PA.
    • Top-four full-season xwOBA is .346 Washington and .331 Detroit; Comerica's 94 run factor trims the baseline.
    • Cornelio's first-inning sample is only 3 games and 10 PA; the low-contact shape is fragile.
  10. Game over 8.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    UndertowUp 2% over 123 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Signal decay is 1.1%, inside the fresh-signal threshold; global direction maps cleanly to full-game over 8.5.
    • Both starters carry 9.6 K/9 profiles, creating strikeout-driven contact suppression risk.

Questions

Who won Nationals vs. Tigers?

The Nationals won 3-1 on Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026.

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