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Updated

FinalYankee Stadium
Red Sox87-75
0-9
Yankees93-68
Score by period
Team123456789T
BOS0000000000
NYY01001025-9

Top model pick, graded

Won

New York Yankees F5 winner (first 5 innings) 46¢

Why Opening Frame likes it: Cam Schlittler's L5 line is 1.20 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 30.0 innings, the strongest current starter signal.

Opening FrameUp 1% return this season · 121 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-19 on this game · +6% return

  1. New York Yankees to win3 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, Fade the Arm +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • Independent power rating: Yankees 58%; +138 run differential versus Boston's +78, plus a rested bullpen (0 IP/0 pitches in 3 days versus Boston's 6 IP/137 pitches).
    • Confirmed starters are off the IL; Schlittler's 0.29 CSW% gives New York a modest bat-missing edge over Tolle's 0.28.
    • Boston's Tolle owns the better 2026 xERA, 2.70 versus Schlittler's 2.85; a clean left-handed start is the likeliest way this loses.
    Fade the Arm
    • Tolle's 3.55 xFIP exceeds his 3.03 ERA; the underlying run-prevention profile is worse than the headline ERA.
    • Tolle's last two fastballs averaged 93.41 and 93.71 mph versus a 94.12 mph season baseline.
    • Tolle's 2.70 xERA is favorable and his recent ERA improved to 1.53 over three starts and 2.83 over five.
    Undertow
    • Schlittler: 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.11 K/9; Tolle: 3.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.35 K/9.
    • A postseason home run or bullpen swing can decide a narrow moneyline; outcome variance remains wide.
  2. Cam Schlittler under 7.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −135 on BetMGM

    2 modelsK-Zone Fade, K’s
    Why 2 models like it
    K-Zone Fade
    • Boston's 21% K rate versus right-handed pitching clears the 21.5% gate.
    • Schlittler has thrown 262 pitches across his last three starts, or 87.3 per start, supporting a sub-88-pitch hook profile.
    • Schlittler's recent 11.4 K/9 is slightly above his 11.11 season mark, with no verified recent whiff decline.
    K’s
    • Model: roughly 22 TBF times a 30.9% adjusted K rate gives 6.8 Ks; estimated under probability is about 61-63% versus −126's 55.8% break-even.
    • The matchup and last-10 sample are not one-start fragile: 761 season BF, with last-10 K rate 33.2% and 31.7% after removing the 11-K start.
    • Schlittler's own 31.4% K rate, 28.8% CSW and 11.4 L3 K/9 can overwhelm the contact-oriented matchup.
  3. Game total under 6.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.2 runs, fair total line 6.0, Under 6.5 win probability 59%, push probability 0% (inputs locked 6:30 PM CDT).
    • Schlittler: 1.95 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.85 xERA and 31.4% strikeout rate across 193.7 innings.
    • Nate Tomlinson's 9.17 average total runs per game is materially higher than this projection.
    Bello
    • Boston scored 21 runs over its last 10 games: 2.1 per game, below the 3.0 ghost-offense gate.
    • Payton Tolle: 5.89 IP/start, 15.74 P/IP, 1.53 L3 ERA, 1.07 L3 WHIP.
    • Boston's bullpen has thrown 137 pitches in three days versus New York's zero; late leverage is the principal over path.
  4. Heliot Ramos over 0.5 hits2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −143 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 64.5% estimated hit probability versus 58.8% DraftKings break-even: +5.7 points.
    • Heliot owns a .291 average and .411 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching over 115 plate appearances.
    • Payton Tolle has allowed only a .211 average and .248 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP grade 82/100: 7/10 L10 hits, 4/5 L5 hits, and 74/112 season hit games (66.1%).
    • Confirmed batting third; right-handed Ramos owns a .2913 average versus left-handed pitchers.
    • Cam Schlittler's opponent is not the relevant starter here: Payton Tolle is confirmed and has a 3.03 ERA with .255 expected wOBA allowed.
  5. Boston Red Sox–New York Yankees F5 total over 4.5 (first 5 innings)Long shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ported run signal: NYY 2.40 F5 runs/game versus Tolle's 2.40 F5 runs allowed; BOS 2.38 versus Schlittler's 2.08, with Yankee Stadium park factor 98.
    • Confirmed top-three lineup quality is solid versus these hands: BOS xWoba .310 versus RHP and NYY xWoba .316 versus LHP; starters temper but do not erase the run environment.
    • Both starters are strong in the current L5: Schlittler 1.20 ERA/.633 WHIP and Tolle 2.83 ERA/1.15 WHIP.
  6. New York Yankees F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cam Schlittler's L5 line is 1.20 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and 30.0 innings, the strongest current starter signal.
    • Yankees top three versus LHP carry xwOBA .372, .341 and .411; Boston's top three versus RHP average .352.
    • Boston's top three versus RHP still post a solid .352 average xwOBA, so the lineup gap is modest.
Show all 25 picks
  1. Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees 7th-inning total over 0.5
    +203%Won

    Taken at 33¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees moneyline implies ~55% home win; 6.5 total at 46% over fits a low-scoring center near 6.8, 7.0 runs.
    • Pinnacle’s Yankees −125 and six-run total independently corroborate the liquid-anchor picture.
    • The low-scoring setup can still produce a scoreless seventh; one inning is high variance.
  2. New York Yankees −1.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees moneyline anchor is 59.5%; full-game over 5.5 is 53.5%, implying a roughly 6.4-run live environment.
    • 2026 MLB totals are right-skewed: mean 9.19, median 9, and 90th percentile 15; empirical shape informs the fit.
    • Pinnacle-derived reference independently points Yankees 56.6% and over 5.5 at 51.3%, agreeing with the anchor direction.
    • The game is already live at 0-0, bottom first with one out; another state change can move every contract sharply.
  3. New York Yankees inning 9 winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply a modest Yankees edge (~54.5%) in a low-scoring game centered near 6.5 runs.
    • A right-skew-calibrated anchor fit gives roughly 0.72, 0.75 expected runs per inning, not a 9% Yankees win chance.
    • The 9th-inning board quotes Yankees YES at 9c versus 71c for draw; comparable earlier-inning Yankees prices are 21, 24c.
    • Flat-rate inning modeling is approximate; the 9th inning is a thin, high-variance three-way market.
  4. Boston Red Sox over 3.5 runs scored
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cam Schlittler is the confirmed RHP: 1.95 ERA and .262 xwOBA allowed; his last five starts show a 1.20 ERA and .633 WHIP.
    • Boston's confirmed lineup faces RHPs at a .310 team xwOBA over 4,500 PA; Contreras and Story were .318 and .261 SLG over the last seven.
    • New York's bullpen had used 0.0 innings over the prior three days, reducing the late-inning scoring path.
    • Boston has multiple left/switch hitters against a righty, and Yankee Stadium carries a 112 left-handed run factor and 138 HR factor.
  5. Payton Tolle over 15.5 outs recordedHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 distribution: 16+ in 19/26 starts; recent five were 16, 17, 17, 18, 18 outs.
    • Recent workload averaged 94.2 pitches; the Yankees lineup averages 3.95 pitches per plate appearance.
    • Boston's bullpen used 137 pitches over six innings in three days; no reliever was on back-to-back days.
    • Boston's current-manager starts average 15.63 outs; only 58 of 134 reached six innings.
  6. Under 6 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters: Payton Tolle xERA 2.70 and Cam Schlittler xERA 2.85.
    • Boston's bullpen logged 6.0 innings and 137 pitches over the last three days; late runs can break a six.
  7. New York Yankees 6th-inning winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game Yankees 55.5% and innings 1-5 collectively imply a stronger Yankees share than inning 6.
    • Matchup mechanism: Schlittler averages 5.87 innings and 92.15 pitches; Tolle averages 5.72 innings and 87.77 pitches.
    • Boston bullpen logged 3 appearances, 6.0 innings and 137 pitches in three days; Yankees logged 0 appearances and 0 pitches.
    • The coherence gap is modest; a two-point directional difference can be market noise after three-way spread costs.
  8. Payton Tolle over 7.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +140 on FanDuel

    K’sUp 9% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 28.4% season K rate over 603 BF; 30.8% over his last five starts (37 K/120 BF).
    • Tolle's L3/L5 K/9 is 12.23/11.62 versus 10.35 season; no IL or hard hook flag, with 26 starts.
    • Recent workload is 24.0 TBF/start; Boston relief logged 137 pitches over the last three days.
    • Recent K counts were 5, 7, 12, 6, 7; only one of his last five cleared 7.5.
  9. Cam Schlittler pitching strikeouts 6+: NoLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Workload is adequate but not excessive: last-four pitch counts 70/98/94/96; L3 workload implies 5.46 projected innings.
    • Rung comparison: Kalshi YES prices are 93¢/87¢/77¢ on 4+/5+/6+; the 6+ NO rung buys five-or-fewer with more workload insulation than lower-threshold NOs.
    • Schlittler's season K/9 is 11.11 and his last five starts produced 5, 6, 8, 10, and 9 Ks.
  10. Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    cash-first mlb under hunterUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent run model: fair total 5.4 with a 67% cash probability at 6.5.
    • Cam Schlittler carries a 2.85 xERA and 11.11 K/9; Payton Tolle has a 2.70 xERA and 10.35 K/9.
    • Confirmed lineups show modest recent platoon quality: BOS vs RHP posted .296 L30 xwOBA; NYY vs LHP .318.
    • Boston's bullpen threw 6.0 innings and 137 pitches in the last three days, creating late-inning over risk.
  11. Game total under 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's 6.0 total devigs to 49.5% under; the extra half-run is valuable.
    • Schlittler xERA 2.85 and Tolle xERA 2.70; both probable starters are verified.
    • Last-four-start pitch averages are 89.5 and 93.5; both clear the 80-pitch workload gate.
    • Yankee Stadium's 138 left-handed HR factor creates asymmetric home-run risk.
  12. Payton Tolle over 6.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    Señor StrikeoutsUp 4% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tolle's K/9 is 12.23 over his last three starts and 11.62 over his last five, versus 10.35 season-long.
    • He is a verified listed starter on seven days' rest and averages 87.8 pitches per start.
    • FanDuel posts over 6.5 at −130, the best named US-book price found.
    • His latest start produced only 5 strikeouts; the last three were 5, 7, and 12.
  13. Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees 1st 5 innings total over 3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBUp 5% last 30 days
  14. Game total runs over 6
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 6 pushes on exactly 6 runs; it wins at 7+, unlike over 6.5, which loses at 6.
    • ProphetX may already be incorporating the push value through its own pricing; no independent projection edge is claimed.
  15. New York Yankees run line −1
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees −1 pushes when New York wins by exactly one; it loses that outcome at −1.5.
    • ProphetX quotes Yankees −1 at +127 (44.05¢) versus adjacent Yankees −1.5 at +190 (34.48¢), only a 9.57-point price gap.
    • The exchange may already compensate for the push option; price comparison alone does not prove the gap is exploitable.
  16. George Lombard Jr. over 0.5 hitsHigh conviction
    +65%Won

    Taken at −155 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 80% last-10 hit rate: 8 of 10 appearances produced a hit.
    • DraftKings −155 implies 60.8%; empirical model probability is 80%, a 19.2-point margin.
    • Relevant vs-L split: .269 average, .577 slugging, .412 xwOBA across 30 PA.
    • The vs-L split is only 30 PA, so the matchup signal is noisy.
  17. Boston Red Sox run line +1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Board as_of_pt 2026-09-29T16:26:56-07:00. Current pregame roster shows 18 starters and both probable starters are posted.
    • The pregame model context favors New York: Schlittler has a 1.95 ERA and 11.11 K/9 versus Tolle at 3.03 and 10.35; a multi-run home win beats +1.
  18. Game total under 6
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  19. New York Yankees −5.5Long shot
    +1000%Won

    Taken at +1000 on FanDuel

    Iron HorseDown 20% over 65 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Yankees enter 93-68 (.578) against Boston's 87-75 (.537).
    • Cam Schlittler is confirmed for New York: 1.95 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.11 K/9.
    • Boston starter Payton Tolle carries a 3.03 ERA and 1.10 WHIP into Yankee Stadium.
    • This requires New York to win by at least six runs; ordinary victories do not cash.

Questions

Who won Red Sox vs. Yankees?

The Yankees won 9-0 on Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026.

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