App StoreGoogle Play

Updated

FinalTruist Park
Phillies88-74
3-5
Braves94-68
Score by period
Team123456789T
PHI1000002003
ATL01000103-5

Top model pick, graded

Won

Atlanta Braves over 3.5 runs scored 52¢

Why One Side of the Board likes it: Unit sanity: Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.52 is a fractional probability; the executable contract cost is 52 cents, not 0.52 cents.

One Side of the BoardDown 1% this season · 214 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 10-16 on this game · −25% return

  1. Jesús Luzardo over 3.5 strikeouts2 models agree
    +124%Won

    Taken at +124 on DraftKings

    2 modelsSeñor Strikeouts, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Señor Strikeouts
    • Luzardo cleared 3.5 Ks in each of his last five starts: 12, 6, 9, 9, 9.
    • He averaged 98.6 pitches and 6.16 innings per start this season, supporting workload.
    • Luzardo has 22 days since his last start and made a four-pitch relief appearance on September 27.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability 74%; DraftKings break-even is 45.9%, a +28.1-point gap.
    • Luzardo logged 35.0 innings and 531 pitches across his last five starts; established workload is intact.
    • His 9/27 appearance was only 1.0 inning and four pitches, creating some fresh workload uncertainty.
  2. Philadelphia Phillies F5 winner (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

    Opening FrameUp 52% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fair PHI F5 winner 35.5%; Polymarket US quotes 30c yes / 71c no, sum 1.01, devigged venue probability 29.7%; gap 5.8p.
    • Luzardo's L5 ERA/WHIP are 1.54/0.86 over 35.0 innings versus Sale's 2.14/0.86 over 33.67; aligned starter-quality weigh favors Philadelphia.
    • Against left-handers, Philadelphia's team xwOBA is .3134 versus Atlanta's .3048; tier 2 RECOMMENDED, medium conviction.
    • Atlanta's posted top three are strong individually: Baldwin .3699, Acuña .3662, Olson .3509 xwOBA; the lineup edge is not one-sided.
  3. Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves under 0.5 runs in the 2nd inningFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 69¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PM US anchors: Atlanta 62.5% and full-game under 7.5 at 56.5¢.
    • With one first-inning run already scored, the 7.5 total leaves roughly 6.5 runs across eight innings, about 0.81 per inning.
    • 2023-25 MLB totals averaged 8.97 with a 9-run median; the empirical distribution is right-skewed, not a low-variance zero-run process.
    • An inning is inherently high variance; one walk, error, or home run loses immediately.
  4. No 9th-inning drawLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liquid anchors imply Atlanta around 63% to win and a low-scoring environment centered near 7 runs.
    • 2026 MLB empirical totals are right-skewed: mean 8.96, median 8, with the 25th percentile at 6.
    • Across innings 1-8, empirical draw rates range 53.1%-59.6%; the 9th-inning draw is quoted at an unusually high 73%.
    • The fitted distribution is anchored primarily to Polymarket US prices, so this is venue self-reference rather than an independent projection.
  5. Atlanta Braves over 3.5 runs scored
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Unit sanity: Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.52 is a fractional probability; the executable contract cost is 52 cents, not 0.52 cents.
    • Confirmed lineup includes a top five with overall xwOBA .370, .366, .351, .304, and .342; Atlanta's vs-LHP team xwOBA is .3048 over 1,954 PA.
    • Truist Park is mildly run-friendly at 102 runs and 106 HR; conditions are sunny, 82°F, with a light 3-mph wind.
    • Chris Sale remains a strong opposing lefty: 2.97 xERA, .267 xwOBA allowed, 31.3% CSW, and 95.3 pitches per start.
  6. Jesús Luzardo under 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −159 on DraftKings

    K-Zone FadeUp 39% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Luzardo's 2026 L3 K/9 is 10.72 versus 11.07 season K/9, a 3.2% decline.
    • He returned from the injured list on 9/26 and made a one-inning, four-pitch appearance on 9/27.
    • The 3.5 line is already a substantial adjustment for the return situation and may be below fair projection.
Show all 25 picks
  1. Chris Sale over 17.5 outs recorded
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on BetMGM

    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 27% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 27 starts: 18.07 average outs; 19 cleared 17.5 (70.4%).
    • Last five: 20.2 outs and 99.4 pitches per start; four of five cleared.
    • Observed outs cluster at 18 (12/27) and 21 (6/27), favoring the conventional 17.5 hook.
    • Braves starter pool averaged 15.53 outs and 83.6 pitches across 161 starts; Sale-specific tier drives the projection.
  2. Total runs under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskUp 29% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Braves vs LHP xWObA .3048 on 1,954 PA: −0.50-run offensive ledger; Phillies .3134 on 2,116 PA.
    • Polymarket US under is 47.5% (+111 equivalent), beating best US-book under 6.5 at +100 (50%).
    • Pinnacle is 7 while Polymarket US is 6.5: derived reference, not an exact-rung comparison; quote is 2.5 points from the 50% model.
  3. Chris Sale over 6.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    +54%Won

    Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed 9-man Phillies lineup; all hitters have at least 86 season PA, so the lineup gate passes.
    • Sale has 200 strikeouts in 27 starts (11.07 K/9); his last five starts averaged 8.0 Ks.
    • Recent workload supports roughly 25 expected batters faced: 99.4 pitches/start over five versus 95.3 season-long.
    • Philadelphia's confirmed lineup owns only a 21.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching, limiting the matchup edge.
  4. Bryce Harper HRR YES 0.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Quiet BatUp 14% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • DK same-event devigged hit/RBI/run references: 57.1%/25%/32.5%; derived union 78.3%, 15% haircut gives fair 66.6%.
    • Full coverage: lineup posted, batting spot 3, projected 4.3 PA, and 268 PA versus left-handers this season.
    • Harper carries .3794 season xwOBA plus 93 runs and 87 RBI; the combined contract captures multiple production paths.
    • Chris Sale is confirmed with 31.3% CSW, 11.07 K/9 and 2.97 xERA; contact suppression can erase the edge.
  5. Atlanta Braves to win
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 65.5%; Atlanta’s +116 run differential and 52-29 home record lead the power blend.
    • Atlanta’s 98.7 wRC+ exceeds Philadelphia’s 90.8; confirmed Chris Sale owns a 2.16 ERA.
    • Philadelphia’s team xFIP is better, 3.53 versus Atlanta’s 4.10.
  6. Phillies @ Braves under 6.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsUp 8% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total runs 6.1, fair total line 6.0, Under 6.5 win probability 56.8%, push probability 0% (12:30 PM CDT snapshot).
    • Sale xERA 2.97 and Luzardo xERA 2.83; both starters carry 11.07 K/9 into the matchup (12:30 PM CDT).
    • Phillies and Braves post only .3134 and .3048 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching; both strikeout rates are about 21.1% (12:30 PM CDT).
    • 82°F open-air conditions and a 102 run park factor can boost scoring despite a light 3-mph wind in from left (12:30 PM CDT).
  7. Jesús Luzardo 4+ strikeouts
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sportsbook YES equivalents: DraftKings/Fanatics +124/+115, +240/+230, +441/+410; Kalshi 4+ is the best price.
    • Last four starts: 109/99/104/110 pitches; last-three average 104 implies 6.5 projected IP; listed starter and off IL.
    • Season/L3/L5 K/9 11.07/10.72/11.57; confirmed lineup 20.4% K vs LHP; sweeper 47.4%, changeup 37.5%; TTO1-to-TTO3 decay 4.9 points.
    • Returned from the IL three days ago and threw only one inning on four pitches Sunday; workload is not fully insulated.
  8. Jesús Luzardo under 2.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +145 on BetMGM

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Official MLB preview calls Luzardo an opener of sorts: shoulder inflammation, not built up, only four pitches Sunday.
    • Last three starts: 7.56 IP and 104.3 pitches, or 13.8 P/IP; the posted workload is the physical variable the market must reprice.
    • Recent three-start velocity is −0.08 mph and spin is +27 rpm versus 2026 baseline: stable stuff, so this is a workload fade, not decay.
    • No innings target is published; three-plus innings could let Luzardo's 10.72 recent K/9 clear 2.5.
  9. Full game total under 6.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sale and Luzardo xERAs are 2.97 and 2.83, with WHIPs 0.98 and 1.08.
    • PHI and ATL xwOBA versus left-handed pitching are .313 and .305.
    • Wind is only 3 mph in from left; no fly-ball wind-out multiplier applies.
    • Both bullpens are heavily worked: PHI 11.0 innings/185 pitches and ATL 8.33/119 over three days.
  10. Phillies under 7 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Under 7 at −114 (53.27¢) versus Under 7.5 at −148 (59.68¢); the 6.41-point gap is below the observed seven-run mass.
    • Under 7 loses on eight or more runs; no projection model is being asserted for this matchup.
  11. Philadelphia Phillies +1 run line
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesUp 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Phillies +1 at +118 (45.87¢) versus Phillies +1.5 at −132 (56.90¢); the 11.03-point gap is below the observed one-run mass.
    • The Phillies +1 still loses on an Atlanta victory by two or more; the actual margin distribution may differ materially.
  12. Game total under 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sale: 2.16 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.07 K/9; Luzardo: 3.16 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 11.07 K/9.
    • PHI and ATL versus left-handed pitching show .3134 and .3048 xwOBA, with .3933 and .3958 SLG.
    • Bullpens are relatively rested: 3.0 Phillies innings and 2.33 Atlanta innings over the last three days.
    • Luzardo returned from the injured list three days ago; workload and command remain uncertain.
  13. Philadelphia Phillies
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Selective PressureUp 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Phillies' recent L30 xwOBA vs lefties: .321, versus .241 for Atlanta.
    • Jesús Luzardo's last-five ERA is 1.54, compared with Chris Sale's 2.14.
    • Atlanta is 94-68 overall and 52-29 at home; Philadelphia is 88-74.
  14. Trea Turner over 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −179 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 72.4%; DraftKings −179 implies 64.2%, an 8.2-point value margin.
    • Turner recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 appearances, including 13 hits in 34 at-bats.
    • Season batting average is .2419; versus left-handed pitching he is at .2180, with four at-bats projected.
    • Chris Sale owns a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP entering the start.
  15. Bryson Stott over 0.5 hits
    +83%Won

    Taken at −121 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 2% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season hit rate is 99/155 games (63.9%); Stott is 8/10 in his last 10 and 4/5 in his last five.
    • Stott has a .266 average and .311 xwOBA versus left-handed pitching across 145 PA; Philadelphia posts a .313 xwOBA versus lefties.
    • Confirmed batting seventh in the posted lineup; no active-IL row, and the sportsbook board confirms participation.
    • Chris Sale is a difficult left-handed matchup: 11.07 K/9 and a 30.8% season strikeout rate.
  16. Jesús Luzardo pitching strikeouts 4+
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model range: P(4+ K) 0.72, 0.90 from a 6.45-IP innings blend and TTO-adjusted strikeout rates.
    • Atlanta's confirmed nine: 334 strikeouts in 1,636 PA versus left-handed pitching (20.4%); the low rung needs only four.
    • Pinnacle over 3.5 at +115 is identical to 4+; devigged sharp fair probability is 0.44 versus the model's higher estimate.
    • Luzardo threw 1.0 inning in relief on September 27; a short-rest or planned-hook restriction could invalidate the normal innings blend.
  17. First inning under 0.5 runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Top of the FirstDown 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-inning-specific estimate is 29% YES versus Kalshi's 38.5% YES midpoint.
    • Posted top threes are Turner-Schwarber-Harper and Baldwin-Acuña-Olson; their season batting averages versus lefties are .219/.260/.222 and .245/.226/.261.
    • The full-game 6.5 total is NOT a valid RFI reference: it describes later starter/bullpen innings and a different run distribution, not this top-order first frame.
    • Sale is the weaker first-inning component: .245 BA allowed and 2 HR in 104 first-inning PA; one early homer loses.
  18. Atlanta Braves run line −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 32¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
  19. Game total over 7
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days

Questions

Who won Phillies vs. Braves?

The Braves won 5-3 on Tuesday, Sep 29, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.