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FinalDaikin Park
White Sox84-78
7-3
Astros81-81
Score by period
Team123456789T
CHW4000030007
HOU1101000003

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros 2nd-inning total over 0.5 34¢

Why Ledger Balance likes it: Full-game anchors are coherent: Houston around 59% to win and 7.5 runs near a 50/50 over-under.

Ledger BalanceDown 2% this season · 543 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 8-21 on this game · −43% return

  1. Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    4 modelsK’s, Señor Strikeouts +2
    Why 4 models like it
    K’s
    • 34.2% K rate over his last five starts versus 27.5% season; 38 strikeouts in 111 batters faced.
    • Projected roughly 22.5 batters faced from 5.27 recent innings per start and 90, 102 pitch counts.
    • Chicago's 24.1% strikeout rate versus right-handers is below Brown's 27.5% season baseline.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • He has 31 strikeouts across his last three starts, averaging 8.0, with 91, 100 pitches in each.
    • His most recent start produced only 4 Ks in 5.33 innings; a short outing is the main path to failure.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Estimated true probability 56%; FanDuel break-even is 47.6%, an 8.4-point edge.
    • Brown cleared 6.5 Ks in 6 of his last 10 starts, averaging 7.0 strikeouts.
    • The recent 10-start sample is only 10 games and includes a four-strikeout outing.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP composite: 75/100 (B); clears the 70 fire threshold.
    • Brown averaged 6.9 strikeouts across his last 10 starts; the 6.5 line is a 6.2% projection lift.
    • The full-season average is only 6.2 strikeouts in 20 starts, so the recent projection may regress.
  2. Houston Astros to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −150 on BetMGM

    3 modelsRicky MLB Moneyline Quant, Rotation Watch +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: 65.8% true HOU win probability; fair −192; low confidence; 4.2, 3.2 projected runs, with Burke volatility and bullpen load as key risks at 4:00 PM CDT.
    • Brown: 3.27 ERA, 3.32 xERA, 10.4 K/9, 96.0-mph fastball; Burke's last-five line is 5.31 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.
    • Houston's bullpen has logged 8.33 innings, 128 pitches, and seven appearances over three days versus Chicago's 6.0, 112, and four.
    Rotation Watch
    • Season: Hunter Brown owns a 27.5% K rate, 21.4% hard-hit rate allowed and .282 xwOBA against.
    • Sean Burke: 25.8% K rate, 23% hard-hit rate allowed and .300 xwOBA against.
    • Chicago's .315 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is slightly better than Houston's .309.
    Fade the Arm
    • Sean Burke's latest fastball was 92.75 mph versus his 94.0-mph season baseline; the prior start was 92.59.
    • Burke's ERA is 6.39 over his last three and 4.64 over his last five versus 3.34 season; season xFIP is 4.00.
    • Hunter Brown is the cleaner arm: 3.54 xFIP, 3.32 xERA, and 2.73 ERA over his last five starts.
  3. Total runs under 7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsParity Desk, Drift
    Why 2 models like it
    Parity Desk
    • Polymarket US Under 7.5 costs 51c; Over 49.5c plus Under 51c sums to 1.00, and the listing is MARKET_STATUS_OPEN and tradable.
    • Hunter Brown and Sean Burke both bring strong strikeout indicators: 10.00 and 8.91 K/9; a clean start from either can keep this below the total's main risk profile but also makes the model's run adjustment fragile.
    Drift
    • Hunter Brown and Sean Burke are confirmed; their 2026 xERAs are 3.32 and 3.78.
    • Daikin Park's 0.96 run factor and closed roof support a lower scoring environment.
    • Chicago's bullpen logged 15.33 innings and 229 pitches over three days, creating late-inning scoring risk.
  4. Chicago White Sox to win2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Undertow
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 46%; CWS pythagorean win rate 53.4% versus Houston 48.1%, with a +56 versus −32 run differential over 162 games.
    • CWS owns the modest team pitching edge: 4.30 xFIP versus Houston's 4.43.
    • Houston has home field and Hunter Brown's 3.32 xERA versus Sean Burke's 3.78; Brown also leads CSW rate .288 to .282.
    Undertow
    • Mapping is exact: global Chicago White Sox moneyline flow maps to the Kalshi Chicago WS YES contract.
    • Live coherence check: Chicago leads 4-0 after the top of the first with five hits to Houston's zero.
    • The game is barely underway; Houston's home field and Hunter Brown's 2.43 ERA/3.32 xERA can erase the lead.
  5. Game total under 7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.4 runs, fair total line 7.8, Under 7.5 win probability 53%, push probability 0%; inputs locked at 3:30 PM CDT.
    • Hunter Brown posted a 3.32 xERA and .282 xwOBA allowed; Sean Burke posted a 3.78 xERA and .300 xwOBA allowed.
    • Three-day bullpen workloads are elevated: Houston 128 pitches and Chicago 112, increasing late-inning over risk.
    Selective Pressure
    • My estimate is 52% under versus a 50.5¢ ProphetX price; this is a venue-self-reference read.
    • Hunter Brown: 3.27 ERA, 3.32 xERA; Sean Burke: 3.34 ERA, 3.78 xERA, credible starters for a 7.5 total.
    • Houston used 8.33 bullpen innings and 128 pitches over three days; late fatigue can create over-run variance.
  6. Houston Astros run line −12 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • the exact contract is Houston Astros −1; a one-run Astros win pushes, while Astros −1.5 loses.
    • ProphetX adjacent rung: Astros −1 +105 versus Astros −1.5 +154; the whole-number push option is priced at only a 49-cent net-payout premium.
    • If Houston wins by 2+, the −1.5 contract would pay +154 versus this contract's +105; the whole rung sacrifices upside.
    Deep Book
    • Pinnacle favors Houston −145; Brown's .282 xwOBA allowed beats Burke's .300.
    • Moneyline flow is Houston −144; total-over flow is $12,890 at 8, directionally supports Houston run production.
    • 6.97x is below the 10x RECOMMENDED threshold; this is half-size.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros 2nd-inning total over 0.5
    +194%Won

    Taken at 34¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 22% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Full-game anchors are coherent: Houston around 59% to win and 7.5 runs near a 50/50 over-under.
    • 2026 regular-season totals are right-skewed (8.96 average, 8 median, 6/12 quartiles); the fitted 7.5-run game still implies roughly 0.40+ for a typical inning to score.
    • The 2026 second-inning baseline produced 0.44 top-half and 0.48 bottom-half runs per half; scaling to this lower total leaves 34¢ thin.
    • The 2026 second-inning sample is aggregate league data, not this matchup; starter execution or an unusual early game state can dominate one inning.
  2. Houston over 4.5 runs scored
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    One Side of the BoardUp 33% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Astros lineup has .3087 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching; Sean Burke is confirmed right-handed.
    • Burke's last five: 4.64 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 21.33 innings across five starts.
    • Chicago's bullpen carried 10.0 innings and 175 pitches over the prior three days.
    • Burke's season line is stronger: 3.34 ERA and 3.78 xERA; recent deterioration may regress.
  3. Sean Burke over 4.5 hits allowed
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Starter Stress TestUp 19% over 26 picks
    Why it likes it
    • 5.67 hits allowed per start across Burke’s last three starts; 2 of 3 cleared 4.5.
    • Burke’s last three starts: 6.39 ERA and 1.82 WHIP versus 3.34 and 1.20 season marks.
    • Only three recent starts support the deterioration read; the season rate is just 13 of 27 over 4.5.
  4. Houston Astros first-five to win (first 5 innings)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −145 on FanDuel

    PuddinsPOP F5 MLBUp 24% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brown: 3.32 xERA and .282 xwOBA allowed versus Burke's 3.78 and .300.
    • Brown's last five starts: 2.73 ERA and 12.99 K/9; Burke: 4.64 ERA and 9.70 K/9.
    • Houston's posted top five average 129 wRC+ versus Chicago's 117; Houston also has a .3087 xwOBA versus RHP.
    • Chicago's posted top five average .343 xwOBA exceeds Houston's .333, so the lineup edge is not clean.
  5. Hunter Brown over 3.5 strikeoutsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −810 on DraftKings

    Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 13% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −810 DraftKings price clears the brief's −300 to −1000 chalk range.
    • Hunter Brown cleared 3.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 10 starts, averaging 6.9 Ks.
    • Brown owns a 10.40 season K/9 and averaged 95.5 pitches across those 10 starts.
    • The handedness split is favorable but only about 9.7% above league average, below the strong 15% benchmark.
  6. Sean Burke 4+ strikeouts: NoLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 10% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed Houston lineup: 647 Ks in 3,177 PA versus right-handers (20.4%), contact-heavy below the 22% gate.
    • Burke averaged 4.8 Ks over his last five and 4.5 over his last 10; three of 10 were below four.
    • No 35% put-away pitch: Burke's slider led at 33.3% whiff, followed by the knuckle curve at 28.2%.
    • Burke averaged 93 pitches over his last three starts, so a normal six-inning outing can clear four.
  7. Sean Burke under 4.5 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +114 on FanDuel

    BelloUp 7% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • −1.20 mph rolling velocity delta (88.34 vs 89.54); physical-decay gate is verified.
    • Burn believability: medium; decay is real, but this remains a strikeout prop with normal variance.
    • Burke averaged 5.33 and 6.0 innings in two of those starts; ordinary workload can reach five strikeouts.
  8. Hunter Brown 6+ strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Mr. StrikeoutsUp 11% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected 9.4 Ks: 14.09 L3 K/9 × 6.0 projected innings.
    • Kalshi YES is 64c, inside the brief's 50c, 65c low-juice range.
    • Brown has reached 6+ Ks in only 10 of 20 2026 starts; the recent-form projection may regress.
  9. Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros over 7.5 total runs
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on DraftKings

    Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals EngineUp 12% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 8.35 runs; Poisson over 7.5 probability 59.5% versus 50.2% devigged Pinnacle.
    • Confirmed lineups average .327 CWS and .314 HOU xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
    • Daikin Park is 96 runs, but 109 LHB and 114 RHB HR factors preserve homer upside.
    • Hunter Brown's 57% GB rate limits the park's homer pathway, and Sean Burke has a 3.78 xERA.
  10. Game first-inning run
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket

    Brewing MLB NRFI/YRFI Stat BasedUp 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • 55.6% YRFI baseline from the teams' first-inning scoreless rates (66.1% HOU, 67.3% CWS).
    • Our starter-adjusted price remains above 50%, creating a material gap to the 45.5¢ graded YES price.
    • Confirmed top four orders combine strong production: Alvarez .4286 wOBA; CWS top four range .3171-.3631.
    • Hunter Brown owns a .183 first-inning BA allowed and 31.7% first-inning K rate.
  11. Hunter Brown over 5.5 pitching strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks with pink pro readerEven 0% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brown cleared 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of his last 10 starts.
    • Brown owns a 10.4 K/9 season baseline and 12.99 K/9 over his last five starts.
    • The recent 6-of-10 hit rate only clears the 60% gate; variance remains material.
  12. Chase Meidroth over 0.5 hits
    +64%Won

    Taken at −156 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 1% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP composite: 82/100 (B+); clears the 70 fire threshold.
    • Meidroth recorded a hit in 8 of his last 10 and all 5 of his last 5 games.
    • Season hit rate is 106 of 155 games (68.4%); last-10 average is 1.5 hits.
    • Hunter Brown has limited him to 2 hits in 8 career plate appearances.
  13. Hunter Brown strikeouts 7+
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountDown 5% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Brown’s 15-start distribution averages 5.47 IP; 7+ IP occurred once, with 8/15 starts in the 5.0, 5.67 IP bucket.
    • Venue self-reference is coherent with the fade: first-five Over 2.5 is 0.71 and Chicago Over 2.5 runs is 0.62, not a dominant-start script.
    • Houston’s bullpen logged 8.33 IP, 128 pitches and seven appearances in the last three days, which may lengthen Brown’s outing.
  14. Chicago White Sox moneyline win
    +138%Won

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Deep BookDown 6% last 30 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-30T11:30:58-07:00. This is a LEAN. No sharp-reference upgrade.
    • The flow signal can be wrong in a one-game market. Houston's starting-pitcher edge is the clearest loss path.

Questions

Who won White Sox vs. Astros?

The White Sox won 7-3 on Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026.

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