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FinalAmerican Family Field
Padres91-71
3–4Final
Brewers103-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
SD1000101003
MIL0000101024

Top model pick, graded

Won

Michael King over 14.5 outs recorded −136

Why MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model likes it: 17.0 projected outs; +2.5 outs versus the 14.5 line; modeled clear probability 84%.

MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded ModelUp 12% return this season · 78 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 21-25 on this game · −6% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to win8 models agree
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    8 modelsThe Core 6 Independent Syndicate, MLB ML Deep Dive +6
    Why 8 models like it
    The Core 6 Independent Syndicate
    • Independent cashing probability 58%; FanDuel -130 implies 56.5%, with fair price about -138.
    • King: 4.42 xERA and .322 xwOBA allowed; Henderson: 2.74 xERA and .257 xwOBA allowed.
    • The lineup-level offensive split advantage is modest, so the price edge is only a few percentage points.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Logan Henderson: 2.74 xERA, .257 xwOBA allowed, 0.84 WHIP and 10.07 K/9.
    • Michael King: 4.42 xERA, .322 xwOBA allowed, 1.18 WHIP and 7.74 K/9.
    • King has a 185-inning regular-season workload and can outperform his .322 xwOBA and 4.42 xERA indicators.
    Selective Pressure
    • Milwaukee finished 103-59 versus San Diego 91-71, with home-field advantage.
    • Logan Henderson: 2.47 ERA, .844 WHIP; Michael King: 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP.
    • The current playoff King row is a tiny, duplicated sample; regular-season form may not carry over.
    Brewing MLB Ml
    • The pattern was profitable in all three seasons: +20.3%, +18.3%, and +16.4%; Grade B sample.
    • Henderson: 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.07 K/9, 2.74 xERA; King: 3.21, 1.18, 7.74, 4.42.
    • The historical sample is Grade B at 80 games, below the 100-game Grade A threshold, so regression is plausible.
  2. Michael King over 14.5 outs recorded2 models agreeHigh conviction
    +74%Won

    Taken at −136 on FanDuel

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • 17.0 projected outs; +2.5 outs versus the 14.5 line; modeled clear probability 84%.
    • King reached 15+ outs in 29 of 33 regular-season starts; the full distribution is 11(1), 12(1), 13(2), 15(4), 17(2), 18(16), 20(2), 21(5).
    • King's 4-inning, 81-pitch start on September 22 shows a real early-hook failure mode; four of 33 starts failed to reach 15 outs.
    Bello
    • King averages 5.67 innings across his last three starts: 17.0 IP on 282 pitches.
    • Recent efficiency is 16.59 P/IP, below the 17.5 trigger; no workload decay signal.
    • King went only four innings in one of his last three starts; one short outing breaks the ticket.
  3. San Diego Padres to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsFade the Arm, Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
    Why 2 models like it
    Fade the Arm
    • King: 4.33 xFIP and 4.42 xERA versus a 3.21 ERA; recent ERA is 5.29 over 17 innings.
    • King’s allowed xwOBA rises from .264 in TTO1 to .352 in TTO3; K rate falls from .296 to .238, then .166 in TTO4.
    • Most likely loss: Logan Henderson’s 2.74 season xERA and 3.30 xFIP dominate while King’s actual stuff plays closer to his 94.75-mph latest fastball.
    Polymarket MLB Hot Wallets
      • The market still prices San Diego as the underdog; Milwaukee's quoted outcome is about 55.5%.
    • Milwaukee Brewers F5 to win2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −145 on FanDuel

      2 modelsPuddinsPOP F5 MLB, MLB Default Picks
      Why 2 models like it
      PuddinsPOP F5 MLB
      • Henderson: 2.74 xERA, .257 xwOBA allowed, 29.5% K, 5.4% BB/HBP; King: 4.42 xERA, .322 xwOBA, 21.3% K, 11.0 BB/HBP.
      • Confirmed Brewers top five average 124.8 wRC+ versus 116.7 for San Diego; MIL RHP split xwOBA .3276 versus SD .3196.
      • Henderson averages only 5.46 innings per start and has 7 quality starts in 18 outings, creating early-exit uncertainty.
      MLB Default Picks
      • Exact F5 anchor: 56.2% devig median of FanDuel/DraftKings/BetMGM; fair -128.
      • Ledger: Henderson’s 3.30 xFIP versus King’s 4.34 adds +5; .257 versus .322 xwOBA adds +3.
      • Only the starter-quality group materially supports Milwaukee; confirmed lineup and umpire ledgers are neutral.
    • Game total over 7.5 runs2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +112 on FanDuel

      2 modelsShawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine, Selective Pressure
      Why 2 models like it
      Shawn’s Park & Weather Totals Engine
      • Model projects 8.10 runs; Poisson P(over 7.5) 56.2%, with fair total near 8.1.
      • Confirmed lineups average roughly .326 xwOBA for both clubs versus right-handed pitching; season scoring rates are 5.14 MIL and 4.46 SD.
      • The 96 runs park factor suppresses offense, so the over depends on Milwaukee converting its favorable pitching matchup.
      Selective Pressure
      • Henderson's 2.74 xERA is offset by King's 4.42 xERA and 3.21 ERA.
      • Padres and Brewers carry .320 and .328 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
      • The sharp sportsbook board headlines 7 rather than 7.5, so cross-market comparison is imperfect.
    • San Diego Padres run line +1
      0%Push

      Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

      Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • King’s 4.33 xFIP and 4.42 xERA trail his 3.21 ERA; TTO3 xwOBA reaches .335-.352 from .264 in TTO1.
      • Personnel gate passed: King and Henderson are listed starters; all 18 starters were posted at 12:20 PM.
      • Cashing likelihood: TTO decay, Milwaukee’s platoon quality, and San Diego’s rested bullpen support the cushion; price quality is only moderate without same-rung reference.
      • Most likely loss: Henderson’s 2.74 xERA and 3.30 xFIP dominate, leaving San Diego unable to stay within one run.
    Show all 38 picks
    1. Milwaukee Brewers 5th-inning winnerLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 25¢ on Polymarket US

      Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Full-game over 6.5 is 0.57; the broader venue run board does not support a uniquely quiet fifth.
      • Reference: PROJECTION mechanism; Henderson averages 5.46 IP and King 4.89, putting the fifth near both starters' expected exits.
      • King's 2026 third-time-through xwOBA allowed is .3519; Milwaukee's RHP split is .3276 xwOBA.
      • Both starters can complete the fifth efficiently; their season ERAs are 2.47 for Henderson and 3.44 for King.
    2. Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ home runsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Henderson allows 1.28 HR/9 with a .1176 HR/FB rate; the matchup supplies a fly-ball-to-power path.
      • American Family Field is neutral at 100 HR factor, but the live forecast has 11 mph wind out to center.
      • Tatis already struck out once; the live state leaves fewer remaining plate appearances than the pregame reference assumed.
    3. Logan Henderson 7+ pitching strikeouts
      +69%Won

      Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

      Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model innings distribution: ≤4 IP 0.20, 5 IP 0.22, 6 IP 0.34, 7 IP 0.20, ≥8 IP 0.04; recent five starts averaged 5.8 IP and 92.4 pitches.
      • Milwaukee's bullpen is fresh enough to shorten the leash: 5.0 IP and 87 pitches over three days, zero back-to-back relievers.
      • Henderson recorded 7+ Ks in 3 of his last 5 starts and owns a 10.07 season K/9.
    4. Ty France under 0.5 RBIFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −335 on DraftKings

      Daryl’s Strawberry’sUp 17% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • -335 DraftKings is inside the brief's -300 to -1000 prop-price gate.
      • Ty France is confirmed batting fourth in San Diego's posted starting lineup.
      • France recorded zero RBI in 8 of his last 10 games (80% under hit rate).
      • The recent hit rate is exactly the 80% minimum, not the 90% high-conviction tier.
    5. Logan Henderson under 5.5 strikeouts
      +132%Won

      Taken at +132 on FanDuel

      Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection 5.2 Ks: 10.07 season K/9, 9.62 L5 K/9, and 89.7 L3 pitches imply 5.6 projected innings before matchup adjustments.
      • Large-sample TTO data show Henderson falling from 40.5% K in TTO1 to 20.3% in TTO3, a 20.2-point decay that raises late-hook risk.
      • Rung comparison: 4+ and 5+ NO lack the required projection separation; 6+ NO is the best workload-insulated rung, with the sportsbook price superior to Kalshi's 44¢ NO.
      • Henderson cleared six strikeouts in 8 of his last 10 starts, including 8, 6, 7, 7 and 7 in the most recent five except the 3-K outing.
    6. Milwaukee Brewers spread −3.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

      By TwoDown 26% over 23 picks
    7. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers first-inning winner drawFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Internal coherence: Polymarket US anchors Milwaukee at 55.5c, while full-game totals 6.5/7.5/8.5 imply a moderate ~7.8-run environment.
      • The same sample averaged 0.53 first-inning runs; zero-run innings occurred 74.9%, making the draw the modal outcome.
      • Sharp reference agrees with the anchor direction: Pinnacle priced Milwaukee -127; no team projection is required for this coherence play.
      • The separate Polymarket US first-inning over-1.5 quote is 25c versus a 14.1% historical rate, signaling possible game-specific tail risk.
    8. San Diego Padres +1.5
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket

      Polymarket MLB Hot WalletsDown 5% over 276 picks
      Why it likes it
      • The live Polymarket global price is 63.5¢ for the Padres spread outcome.
      • The 63.5¢ spread price leaves less payout cushion than the moneyline.
    9. Michael King over 1.5 earned runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −134 on DraftKings

      Shawn’s Quant Pitcher ER ModelDown 34% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • King's 2026 xERA is 4.42 with 11.8% K-BB%; Milwaukee owns .3276 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching and .3335 over the last 30 days.
      • Recent workload is normal: 94.5 pitches per start over his last four, 5.8 IP/start season average, and no IL or pitch-limit flag.
      • King's 2026 actual ERA is 3.21, and a six-inning efficient outing can finish at 0 or 1 ER.
    10. Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hitsFavorite
      +43%Won

      Taken at −233 on DraftKings

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8/10 hits in his last 10 games (80%); 5/5 in his last five.
      • Confirmed leadoff starter; fresh lineup capture and odds-feed roster both list him active.
      • One hit is binary and four-to-five plate appearances still leave substantial variance.
    11. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1
      0%Push

      Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Brewers -1 pushes if Milwaukee wins by exactly 1; it wins at 2+ and loses otherwise.
      • ProphetX prices Brewers -1.5 at +176 (33.56¢) versus +120 (45.45¢) on -1.
      • A Padres win, tie-equivalent non-margin outcome, or Brewers win by 2+ in the wrong direction loses; only a one-run Brewers win pushes.
    12. Jackson Chourio 1+ home runLong shot
      +567%Won

      Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

      Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 16 HR in 403 PA versus RHP implies about 16.4% at a leadoff estimate of 4.5 PA.
      • Confirmed leadoff lineup slot and confirmed RHP Logan Henderson; neutral American Family Field HR factor is 100.
      • TIMING check: direct venue quote was refreshed at 12:41 PM PDT; market history showed no recorded intraday price change.
      • Henderson has a strong 2026 profile: 10.07 K/9 and .257 xwOBA against.
    13. Fernando Tatis Jr. 2+ total bases
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on Polymarket US

      Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Tatis bats leadoff, supporting roughly 4.3, 4.6 expected PA.
      • 2026 vs R: .3707 xwOBA and .4274 SLG across 554 PA; season xwOBA is .3788.
      • Michael King is a legitimate suppressor: .322 xwOBA allowed and 7.74 K/9 in 2026.
    14. San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers under 7.5 total runs
      +72%Won

      Taken at −138 on FanDuel

      Ricky Pregame MLB TotalsDown 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected total 7.2 runs, fair total line 7.0, Under 7.5 win probability 58%, push probability 0%; model timestamp 2:31 PM CDT.
      • Logan Henderson allows a .257 xwOBA with a 2.74 xERA; Milwaukee's opposing Padres lineup carries a .3196 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching.
      • Michael King's 4.42 xERA and .322 xwOBA allowed are offset by Milwaukee's modest .3276 xwOBA versus right-handers and a strong Henderson matchup.
      • Milwaukee's 3-day bullpen workload reached 87 pitches and San Diego's 81, so a short start could expose tired relief.
    15. Xander Bogaerts over 0.5 hits
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −134 on DraftKings

      Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 8 hits in his last 10 games; cleared 0.5 hits in 8 of 10 (80%).
      • Last-7 batting average is .350 versus a .2308 season mark, a 52% recent lift.
      • DraftKings prices the over at -134, below the recent hit-rate signal after accounting for normal variance.
      • Bogaerts is batting seventh, reducing projected plate appearances versus a top-of-order hitter.
    16. Michael King 16+ recorded outs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi

      Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • workload model centers near 17.4 outs, above the 16-out threshold.
      • King averaged 5.78 innings per regular-season start, or 17.3 outs, across 32 starts.
      • His last five regular-season starts totaled 29.0 innings and 473 pitches: 5.8 innings and 94.6 pitches per start.
      • Fresh Brewers multi-inning arms create an early off-ramp if King's pitch count rises.
    17. Padres-Brewers total under 7.5
      +77%Won

      Taken at −130 on FanDuel

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Logan Henderson owns a 2.47 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 10.07 K/9 with a 2.74 expected ERA.
      • American Family Field is roof-closed with zero wind; its run factor is 96.
      • Lance Barrett's games have gone over 9 runs only 37.5% of the time.
      • Michael King's 4.42 expected ERA is materially worse than his 3.21 actual ERA and can break the under alone.
    18. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Logan Henderson's 3.30 xFIP versus Michael King's 4.33 gives Milwaukee a 1.03 pitching gap, above the 0.75 gate.
      • Milwaukee's .3276 team xwOBA versus right-handers edges San Diego's .3196; both lineups are posted with 18 starters.
      • Pinnacle has Milwaukee -1.5 at +162; ProphetX improves the price to +176, reference only.
      • Likeliest loss path: Milwaukee wins by exactly one, or San Diego wins; the -1.5 run line loses in either case.
    19. Manny Machado total bases 4+Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

      Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Manny 1+ HR YES costs 18¢, while 4+ total bases YES costs 17¢.
      • A home run automatically produces four total bases; the broader TB outcome should not cost less than the HR subset.
      • Manny is confirmed batting third; his regular-season profile includes 30 HR, 44.5% fly balls, 41.2% pull rate, and .190 ISO.
      • The one-cent inversion may be rounding, spread, or fee noise rather than exploitable value.
    20. Michael King over 5.5 strikeouts
      +156%Won

      Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

      Slate K Model · Sharp Reference LayerUp 19% over 36 picks
      Why it likes it
      • 41.5%: Pinnacle’s 5.5-K anchor (+130/-158) de-vigs to fair 6+ probability.
      • King’s last-five workload averages 24.2 batters faced; the lineup-weighted Poisson-binomial is shifted to the 41.5% anchor.
      • King’s last five starts range from 3 to 8 strikeouts; workload and sequencing create a wide tail.
    21. Logan Henderson over 6.5 strikeouts
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +131 on DraftKings

      K’sDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L10 workload averaged 22.3 TBF and 6.0 IP; L5 still averaged 21.4 TBF and 5.8 IP.
      • Changeup usage is 35.2% with a 37.4% whiff rate; season whiff checks agree at 26.5%.
      • Negative-binomial/Poisson blend puts P(7+ Ks) about 45, 46%; +131 needs 43.0%.
      • Last-10 clearance is 5/10; removing the highest 8-K start leaves 4/9, only slightly above price break-even.
    22. Michael King over 4.5 hits allowed
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +113 on DraftKings

      Starter Stress TestUp 105% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Michael King is a listed starter and an active participant on this game's live prop board.
      • Milwaukee's 2026 wRC+ is 107.9; its last-30-day average versus right-handers is .2737.
      • King's last-three-start ERA is 6.75 and WHIP 1.97, versus 3.21 and 1.18 season marks.
      • The posted Milwaukee team total is only 3.5 runs, below the preferred 4.5 implied-total threshold.
    23. Michael King over 14.5 pitching outs
      +74%Won

      Taken at −136 on FanDuel

      Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 28 of King's 32 regular-season starts cleared 14.5 outs (87.5%); he cleared in 9 of his last 10.
      • King averaged 18.0 outs and 96.5 pitches over his last 10 starts; season workload is 5.78 IP/start.
      • Listed active starter with five days' rest, no IL designation or rehab cap, and 18 quality starts in 32 outings.
      • San Diego starters were pulled before five innings in 66 of 165 team starts; Milwaukee's bullpen is relatively fresh.
    24. San Diego Padres −2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket US

      Run and a HalfUp 223% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • FanDuel and DraftKings both list Padres -2.5 at +210; Brewers +2.5 is -300/-285.
      • Recent 373-game margin buckets imply roughly 29.4% for a Padres win by 3+ after anchoring direction to the live 57.5% Padres moneyline.
      • The Padres lead 1-0 in the bottom of the second, while both bullpens show zero back-to-back relievers and only 5.0/5.33 IP over three days.
      • game September sample has wide tail uncertainty; the simple directional split may understate Milwaukee’s chance of a multi-run comeback.
    25. Padres-Brewers first-five total over 3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −130 on BetMGM

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 5.06 runs: simple average of the clubs' first-five scoring and opponent-allowed rates.
      • Milwaukee's first-five scoring rate is 2.90; San Diego's is 2.51.
      • Confirmed lineups posted at 12:30 PM PDT; opposing lineup xwOBA is .3196 for SD and .3276 for MIL.
      • Henderson owns a 2.47 ERA and .257 xwOBA allowed; King owns a 3.21 ERA.
    26. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers under 0.5 runs in the 9th inningFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US

      Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Brewers anchor at 55.5% and the 7.5-run total anchor at roughly 44.5% over imply a modest home edge in a low-scoring game.
      • The 2026 empirical linescore has the 9th inning scoreless in 1,601 of 2,483 games (64.5%), versus 52.7% in the 8th.
      • Rescaling that empirical 9th-inning shape toward the 7.5-run anchor puts zero runs around 68, 70%; the live under costs 74c.
      • The 9th inning is state-dependent: the bottom half is skipped when Milwaukee leads, while a tie or San Diego lead creates different run opportunities.
    27. Dustin Harris over 0.5 hits
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −146 on DraftKings

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6 of his last 10 appearances produced a hit, clearing the 60% recent-form gate.
      • .3016 batting average versus right-handed pitching across 140 PA; posted lineup has him batting second.
      • Model probability 64.0% versus 59.3% implied by DraftKings -146: 4.7 percentage points of value.
      • Logan Henderson owns a 10.07 K/9 and .257 expected wOBA allowed, a difficult contact matchup.
    28. Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 first-five-innings spread
      +59%Won

      Taken at 63¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • full-game board is roughly Brewers +1 / Padres -1 with a 7.5 total; F5 +1.5 only loses on a two-run margin.
      • Logan Henderson owns a 2.74 xERA, 0.84 WHIP and 10.07 K/9; Michael King is at 4.42 xERA, 1.18 WHIP and 7.74 K/9.
      • Confirmed top-five RHP splits are strong on both sides, but Milwaukee's group runs .340-.378 xwOBA versus San Diego's .313-.371.
      • The Padres already lead, and another early multi-run inning would put a two-run F5 margin in play.
    29. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 first-five-innings runs
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Polymarket US prices full-game Over 7.5 at 45¢, consistent with meaningful scoring after truncation to five innings.
      • Michael King owns a 5.29 ERA over his last three starts, 3.10 over his last five, and a .2727 first-inning BA allowed.
      • Milwaukee’s confirmed top five versus right-handers combine strong 2026 production: Chourio .340 xwOBA, Turang .364, Bauers .378, Contreras .342, Mitchell .360.
      • Logan Henderson is the counterweight: 2.74 xERA, .257 xwOBA allowed, 10.07 K/9, and a 2.17 ERA over his last five.
    30. Milwaukee Brewers over 3.5 team runs
      +88%Won

      Taken at −113 on FanDuel

      +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 5.14 regular-season runs per game; Milwaukee averaged 4.44 over its last nine games.
      • Michael King's 3.21 ERA is backed by a materially worse 4.42 FIP and 4.42 expected ERA.
      • Milwaukee's lineup posts a .3276 xwOBA and .2258 K rate versus right-handed pitching.
      • King's actual 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP can suppress Milwaukee below four runs.
    31. Total Runs Under 7
      0%Push

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Under CurrentDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • American Family Field is a 96 run-factor park, with the roof closed at 69°F and zero wind; neither bullpen pitched yesterday.
      • Both starters and both nine-man lineups were confirmed at 10:30 AM; team versus right-handers sits at .3196 SD and .3276 MIL xwOBA.
      • ProphetX self-reference is directionally supportive: both team totals are 3.5 and the first-five total is 4, though neither lowers the full-game 7.
      • Most likely loss: Michael King's 4.42 xERA and vulnerable sinker (.3891 xwOBA allowed) or four-seam (.339) permit Milwaukee damage.
    32. Milwaukee Brewers first-five innings to win
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −145 on DraftKings

      Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Estimated fair probability 62% (fair line about -163) versus DraftKings -145; roughly 3 points of probability edge.
      • Logan Henderson: 2.47 ERA, 2.74 xERA, 10.07 K/9, and .203 first-inning batting average allowed.
      • Milwaukee's RHP split is .260/.410/.328 with .328 xwOBA, versus San Diego's .242/.395/.320 and .320 xwOBA.
      • The 62% estimate is sensitive to translating pitcher quality into five-inning run expectancy; it is not a vendor probability.

    Questions

    Who won Padres vs. Brewers?

    The Brewers won 4-3 on Sunday, Oct 4, 2026.

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