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FinalAmerican Family Field
Padres91-71
2–3Final
Brewers103-59
Score by period
Team123456789T
SD0200000002
MIL00200010–3

Top model pick, graded

Won

Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts −158

Why MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL likes it: 6.5 projected Ks from a 12.98 K/9 season baseline and 11.41 K/9 across his last five.

MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODELDown 3% this season · 117 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 35-20 on this game · +21% return

  1. Milwaukee Brewers to winFavorite10 models agree
    +48%Won

    Taken at −209 on DraftKings

    10 modelsPen Check, MLB ML Deep Dive +8
    Why 10 models like it
    Pen Check
    • Misiorowski: 37.9% strikeout rate, .226 xwOBA allowed, 2.13 xERA and 11.41 K/9 over his last five.
    • Ray: 19.4% strikeout rate, .335 xwOBA allowed and 4.82 xERA; the starter gap is the card's primary edge.
    • San Diego's lineup owns a .320 xwOBA against right-handed pitching versus Milwaukee's .307 mark against left-handers.
    MLB ML Deep Dive
    • Independent fair probability 70%; fair line about -233 versus FanDuel -200.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9.
    • San Diego is 17-3 over its last 20; its relevant vs-RHP xwOBA is .320 versus Milwaukee's .307 vs LHP.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Misiorowski's 2.13 xERA, 2.15 xFIP and 2.35 SIERA remain elite despite a 1.80 ERA.
    • Ray has a 4.82 xERA, 4.80 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA against a 3.73 ERA.
    • Misiorowski's expected metrics still imply regression from his 1.80 ERA.
    Ricky MLB Moneyline Quant
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: exact Brewers true win probability 73.0%; p_conservative 70.0%; fair moneyline -270 raw / -233 conservative; confidence rating medium; at 7:30 PM Central Time (CST/CDT), primary support is Misiorowski's strikeout and run-prevention edge; key risks are playoff variance and Ray's long rest.
    • Misiorowski posted a 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA, 12.98 K/9, and 37.9% strikeout rate in 2026.
    • A 3.3-point uncertainty-adjusted edge is modest; one playoff leverage swing or extra-inning result dominates the estimate.
  2. Jacob Misiorowski under 8.5 strikeouts3 models agreeHigh conviction
    +63%Won

    Taken at −158 on FanDuel

    3 modelsMLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL, K-Zone Fade +1
    Why 3 models like it
    MLB STRIKEOUT PROJECTION AND SELECTION MODEL
    • 6.5 projected Ks from a 12.98 K/9 season baseline and 11.41 K/9 across his last five.
    • Confirmed Padres lineup projects to a 20.7% K rate versus right-handers across 3,090 PA.
    K-Zone Fade
    • Misiorowski's K/9 has fallen from 12.98 season-long to 10.80 over his last three starts.
    • Recent starts totaled 68, 44, and 82 pitches, a 64.7-pitch average versus an 88.23 season average.
    • His 10.80 recent K/9 remains elite, so nine strikeouts is well within his range.
    Señor Strikeouts
    • 17.6% estimated SwStr% from 50.9% swing rate and 65.4% contact rate supports the under despite elite stuff.
    • San Diego's 21.2% strikeout rate versus right-handers is not a high-K matchup.
    • His 37.9% season K rate and 10.80 K/9 over the last three starts can overwhelm the matchup.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers −1.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    3 modelsRun and a Half, MLB Quant Edge +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Run and a Half
    • Discretized margin model makes Milwaukee -1.5 about 51%, versus the 45.5¢ venue no-price.
    • Recent 30-day MLB margins: 29.8% one-run, 20.7% two-run, 12.1% three-run, and 23.0% five-plus.
    • San Diego's confirmed split offense is stronger: .3198 xwOBA versus right-handers, compared with Milwaukee's .3069 versus left-handers.
    MLB Quant Edge
    • Misiorowski’s 2.15 xFIP, 2.35 SIERA, 37.9% K rate and .184 hard-hit rate drive the matchup.
    • Ray’s 4.48 xFIP and 4.98 SIERA materially exceed his 3.73 ERA, with a 12.1% walk rate.
    • Run-line value requires a two-run win; a one-run Brewers victory loses the ticket.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Misiorowski's 2.35 xFIP versus Robbie Ray's 4.48 gives Milwaukee a 2.13-run-prevention metric gap before home field.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen has used 72 pitches/3.67 innings over seven days versus San Diego's 177/10.67, a meaningful late-game availability edge.
    • San Diego's lineup owns a .3198 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching, above Milwaukee's .3069 xwOBA versus left-handers.
  4. Jacob Misiorowski under 17.5 outs recorded2 models agree
    +115%Won

    Taken at +115 on BetMGM

    2 modelsMLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model, Bello
    Why 2 models like it
    MLB Pitcher Outs Recorded Model
    • Model: 69% under; projected 15.6 outs, a 1.9-out gap below 17.5.
    • Last 5 starts averaged 14.2 outs and 75.8 pitches; four of five stayed below 18 outs.
    • His 2026 baseline is 17.47 outs, and he reached 18+ in 18 of 30 starts.
    Bello
    • 17.5 outs requires 5.83 IP; his last three starts were 5.33, 3.0, and 5.0 IP.
    • Recent workload: 13.33 IP and 194 pitches; 14.55 P/IP, below the 17.5 decay trigger.
    • Season average is 5.82 IP, virtually the 17.5-out threshold; six innings loses this call.
  5. Milwaukee Brewers spread −1.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Deep Book
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Brewers run differential +214 versus San Diego +52; both teams have full current-season samples.
    • Jacob Misiorowski is confirmed with 2.13 xERA and 33.9% CSW; Robbie Ray is confirmed with 4.82 xERA and 23.8% CSW.
    • The run line loses on a one-run Milwaukee win; MLB margin variance is the main failure path.
    Deep Book
    • Projection: Misiorowski 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.98 K/9; Ray 3.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.46 K/9. Brewers bullpen: 0.0 IP last 3 days versus San Diego 5.67.
    • Most likely loss: Milwaukee wins by exactly one run, which fails -1.5.
  6. Game total under 72 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on DraftKings

    2 modelscash-first mlb under hunter, Selective Pressure
    Why 2 models like it
    cash-first mlb under hunter
    • Model fair total 5.8 runs; 61% probability of 0-6 runs, versus 54.1% breakeven at -118.
    • Misiorowski allows .226 expected wOBA with 2.13 xERA; Milwaukee’s lineup owns only .307 xwOBA versus left-handers.
    • Ray’s .335 expected wOBA allowed and Milwaukee’s contact profile provide a credible home scoring path.
    Selective Pressure
    • Misiorowski owns a 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA and 12.98 K/9 over 174.7 regular-season innings.
    • Milwaukee's lineup versus left-handed pitching carries only a .3069 xwOBA and .2159 K rate.
    • Robbie Ray's 4.82 xERA and San Diego's .3198 xwOBA versus right-handers can produce early runs.
Show all 40 picks
  1. Total runs under 72 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX No Vig MLB, Under Current
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX No Vig MLB
    • Ledger: Milwaukee -0.50 from .3069 xWoba versus left-handers, capped at -0.40 Partial; San Diego 0.00 at .3198 versus right-handers; both bullpens have 0 b2b and 0.0 IP over three days.
    • Both starters are posted with 30 GS each and both lineups are 9/9; split samples are 1,820 and 4,833 PA. Closed roof and 0-mph wind receive no invented adjustment.
    • Most likely loss: San Diego's .3198 xwOBA split converts Robbie Ray's 4.48 xFIP into an early scoring burst; 8+ runs loses.
    Under Current
    • Milwaukee's lineup versus lefties is only .3069 xwOBA and .2311 whiff; San Diego versus righties is .3198/.2506.
    • Both starters and all nine-man lineups were confirmed at 3:00 PM PDT; neither starter is on the active IL.
    • Most likely loss: Ray's 4.82 xERA plus San Diego's tired bullpen, 5.67 innings and 80 pitches over three days, turns a low-scoring start into late runs.
  2. Game total under 6.52 models agree
    +116%Won

    Taken at +116 on FanDuel

    2 modelsRicky Pregame MLB Totals, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Ricky Pregame MLB Totals
    • 20,000-trial PA simulation model: projected 6.6 total runs; fair total 6.6; Under 6.5 win probability 54.1%; push probability 0.0%; release 7:01 PM CDT, first pitch 7:30 PM CDT.
    • Jacob Misiorowski posted a 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, and 12.98 K/9 entering this start.
    • Robbie Ray's 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed create a credible Milwaukee scoring path even against a below-average platoon split.
    Long Way Home
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, .226 xwOBA against, and 2.13 xERA; Ray: 3.73 ERA.
    • Scoreless after one inning with only one Padres hit leaves six-plus runs needing a substantial second-half surge.
    • Most likely loss: Ray allows an early cluster, then both offenses reach the seven-run threshold.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers 9th-inning winnerLong shotHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 4¢ on Polymarket US

    Frame by FrameDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Milwaukee is priced 0.04 in inning 9 versus 0.24, 0.30 in innings 1, 8, while the full-game winner is 0.65 Milwaukee.
    • The F5 board makes Milwaukee 0.58, and innings 6, 8 remain 0.24, 0.26; the 9th is the lone sharp directional break.
    • Bullpen regime supports Milwaukee late: MIL has 0 IP/0 pitches in 3 days versus SD's 5.67 IP/80 pitches; SD has 10.67 IP/177 pitches over 7 days versus MIL's 3.67/72.
    • A 4% contract is highly outcome-volatile; one late homer or defensive mistake decides the inning.
  4. Jackson Chourio over 0.5 hitsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +41%Won

    Taken at −245 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated fair hit probability ~80%; DraftKings -245 breaks even at 71.0%: +9.0 points.
    • Chourio is batting first in the posted lineup, supporting four-to-five plate appearances.
    • His season average is .291 and his split versus left-handed pitching is .321.
    • One-hit props are binary; an 0-for-4 result loses despite a favorable matchup.
  5. Total runs under 7.5
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Parity DeskDown 15% last 7 days
  6. Milwaukee Brewers under 3.5 team runs
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    ELITE MLB MASTER FADE & -EV TRAP DETECTION ENGINE v1.0Down 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • American Family Field projects pitcher-friendly: 96 park-factor runs, roof closed.
    • Robbie Ray's 4.82 xERA versus 3.73 ERA leaves room for Milwaukee regression.
  7. Milwaukee Brewers F5 to winFavorite
    0%Push

    Taken at −260 on FanDuel

    The Core 6 Independent SyndicateUp 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski: 2.13 xERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 36.7% whiff; Ray: 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed.
    • Recent form widens the starter gap: Misiorowski 2.28 ERA over his last five versus Ray at 5.96.
    • Both starters and the nine-man lineups were verified live at 5:00 PM PT; no unresolved starter or lineup issue.
    • Milwaukee's season split versus left-handers is only .247/.382/.307 xwOBA, so the lineup is not an overwhelming platoon edge.
  8. Jacob Misiorowski under 7.5 strikeouts
    +110%Won

    Taken at +110 on DraftKings

    K’sDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects roughly 20 TBF and 6.6-6.8 Ks; Poisson/negative-binomial blend gives about 64-67% under 7.5.
    • Recent five starts: 30 Ks in 94 TBF (31.9%); removing the 9-K outlier leaves 21 in 70 TBF (30.0%).
    • San Diego's 21.2% K rate versus right-handers is below average; the 4,833-PA split clears the 50-PA stress gate.
    • Misiorowski remains an elite strikeout arm: 37.9% season K rate, 99.7 mph fastball, and 40.2% fastball whiff rate.
  9. Robbie Ray over 3.5 hits allowed
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Starter Stress TestUp 105% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Robbie Ray allowed 7, 3, and 4 hits in his last three starts; over 3.5 landed twice.
    • His 2026 baseline is 137 hits allowed in 30 starts, or 4.57 per start.
    • Ray’s recent three-start line is 5.65 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, versus a 3.73 ERA and 1.37 WHIP season baseline.
    • Ray’s season hard-hit rate is only 22.3%, below the contact-deterioration threshold.
  10. Jacob Misiorowski pitching strikeouts 8+
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Punch CountUp 109% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability: 72% for Jacob Misiorowski to finish below 8 strikeouts; projected 8+ probability is 28%.
    • Innings distribution uses the last five starts: 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.3, 6.3 IP, mean 4.73; estimated strikeout mass is 0-4: 35%, 5: 14%, 6: 12%, 7: 11%, 8: 8%, 9: 6%, 10: 5%, 11: 3%, 12+: 6%.
    • Misiorowski's 2026 third-time-through rate is 29.9% K over 127 PA versus 47.1% first-time and 48.4% second-time; Milwaukee's bullpen has thrown 0.0 IP/0 pitches in three days, supporting a quicker hook.
    • Season workload is materially longer than the short-start model: 5.82 IP and 88.2 pitches per start across 30 starts versus 4.73 IP and 75.8 pitches in the last five.
  11. Jacob Misiorowski under 1.5 walks allowed
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Free PassNew model
    Why it likes it
    • Market/book: under 1.5 walks; Polymarket US NO on 2+ walks costs 54¢.
    • FULL coverage: confirmed starter, 665 BF, last-3/last-5 start logs, opposing split, and umpire fit are present; expected 4.73 IP.
    • The last five starts produced 9 walks in 24.0 innings, a 3.38 BB/9 spike above his 2.27 season rate.
  12. Robbie Ray over 11.5 pitching outs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Pitchin outsUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 28 of 30 2026 starts cleared 11.5 outs; season mean 15.93, median 16.
    • Cleared in 8 of his last 10 starts despite a 3.33-outlier and a 2.33-outlier.
    • Full role is confirmed: 30 starts, active, 10 days' rest, 92.0 pitches/start and no rehab cap.
    • Only 3 of the last 5 starts cleared; recent mean is 13.6 outs, so recency weakens the season baseline.
  13. Jacob Misiorowski strikeouts NO 6+Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 17¢ on Polymarket US

    Shawn's K-Floor StaircaseUp 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 4.7 Ks; 6+ NO clears the required 1.0-K separation by 1.3.
    • Last four pitch counts: 68, 44, 82, 93; mandated workload formula projects 4.0 IP.
    • Padres lineup is confirmed and strikes out only 20.7% versus right-handers (641/3,090 PA).
    • Misiorowski owns a 12.98 season K/9, with 30 Ks in his last five and 67 in his last ten.
  14. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers under 0.5 runs in the 4th inning
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anchors imply Brewers win probability near 64.5% and a full-game scoring center around 7 runs.
    • In 2026 games totaling 5, 8 runs, the fourth inning scored zero 59.7% of the time.
    • Pinnacle's live reference total is 7 with the under favored, independently supporting the low-run anchor.
    • The estimate is primarily venue self-reference; there is no independent fourth-inning projection.
  15. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers first-inning run
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    Ledger BalanceUp 178% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Brewers 64.5% moneyline and 6.5-run total anchors are mutually consistent: a favorite in a low-scoring, roughly seven-run game.
    • The 2026 empirical total distribution is right-skewed: 2,439 games, mean 8.96 runs, median 8, and 40.0% reached 10+.
    • Calibrating that empirical shape so total runs reach 7+ at the 54.5% anchor probability gives an approximately 7.5-run environment.
    • Starters can suppress the opening frame versus a flat nine-inning allocation; no independent pitcher projection is used.
  16. Robbie Ray over 3.5 strikeouts
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100 (B), clearing the 70 minimum and positive-edge bar.
    • 2026 season average is 4.4 Ks/start versus a 3.5 line, a 25.7% mean-versus-line edge.
    • Ray cleared 3.5 Ks in 7/10 recent starts, 3/5 L5, and 22/30 this season.
    • Milwaukee strikes out only 21.6% versus left-handed pitching, with a 23.1% whiff rate.
  17. MLB game total under 7
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 7 wins at 0, 6 runs, pushes at exactly 7, and loses at 8+; under 6.5 loses at 7.
    • ProphetX under 7 is 52.15¢ versus under 6.5 at 46.51¢, only a 5.64¢ premium for avoiding a loss on seven.
    • Under 7 loses at 8 or more runs, while exactly 7 returns stake rather than profit.
  18. Total runs over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
  19. San Diego Padres spread +1.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Directional coherence check: backing Padres +1.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Price was freshly read at 2:56 PM PDT.
    • ProphetX is the only reference; no independent sharp reference validates this venue-self-reference read.
  20. Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ home runLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Polymarket US

    Small BallDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle same rung (over 0.5 HR): +475 / -692; devigged fair probability is 16.6%.
    • Confirmed leadoff slot at 3:00 PM; Tatis owns .3795 season xwOBA and .3714 xwOBA versus right-handers.
    • Misiorowski is confirmed right-handed; Tatis projects roughly 4.3, 4.6 PA from the leadoff slot.
    • The fair-price cushion is only 1.6 percentage points; fees and execution spread can erase it.
  21. Ty France under 0.5 hits
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +123 on DraftKings

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-7 batting average .154 versus .296 season average: a 48% recent-form drop.
    • France owns a .303 average versus right-handers, but Jacob Misiorowski brings a 12.98 K/9 season mark.
    • DraftKings offers +123 on the under, a plus-money price against the recent-form and strikeout matchup.
    • France bats fourth and should receive four or more plate appearances if the game stays close.
  22. Jacob Misiorowski recorded outs under 17
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Extra FramesDown 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 17 outs requires 5.67 IP; Misiorowski cleared that in only 1 of his last 5 starts.
    • Last-five workload averaged 4.73 IP and 75.8 pitches, versus 5.82 IP and 88.2 pitches season-long.
    • Milwaukee used 0 bullpen innings and 0 pitches over the last three days; multiple relief options reduce the leash.
    • Season baseline is 17.5 outs per start across 30 starts, so normal efficiency can clear this line.
  23. San Diego Padres to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on ProphetX

    Fade the ArmUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • His playoff fastball is 99.45 mph versus a 99.72 mph regular-season baseline; the board is still anchored near the strong full-season profile.
    • Confirmed starters and lineup: Misiorowski/Ray are listed, neither is on the active IL, and all nine Padres starters posted at 3:00 PM PDT.
    • Misiorowski's regular-season 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA, 33.9% CSW, and 99.72 mph baseline remain elite; the deterioration sample is only three playoff appearances.
  24. San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers over 6.5 total runs
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    Loose Cohort MLBDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed starters are Robbie Ray and Jacob Misiorowski; Ray carries a 3.73 ERA versus Misiorowski's 1.80.
    • Most likely loss: Ray and Misiorowski suppress scoring and the game finishes with six or fewer runs.
  25. Jackson Chourio 2+ total bases
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chourio posts a .5535 SLG and .3648 xwOBA versus lefties across 172 plate appearances.
    • His recent line is .450 average and .600 SLG over the last seven games; he is confirmed in the leadoff spot.
    • Ray permits a .3435 xwOBA to right-handers, while the park's right-handed HR factor is 106.
    • Closed roof and zero wind provide no environmental boost beyond the park baseline.
  26. Jackson Chourio 1+ home runLong shot
    +525%Won

    Taken at 16¢ on Polymarket US

    Warning TrackDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chourio owns 9 HR in 172 PA versus lefties, with a .5535 SLG and .3648 xwOBA.
    • American Family Field is roof-closed with zero wind, removing any weather-driven carry advantage.
  27. Game total over 7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −102 on DraftKings

    MLB Quant EdgeUp 84% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ray's 4.82 xERA, 4.98 SIERA, and 4.48 xFIP sit well above his 3.73 ERA.
    • San Diego relievers logged 80 pitches and 5.67 innings over three days; Milwaukee logged 0 and 0.
    • Plate umpire Nick Mahrley averages 9.46 runs, with 57.1% of games over 9.
    • Misiorowski is an elite run suppressor: 2.13 xERA, 2.15 xFIP, 2.35 SIERA, and 12.98 K/9.
  28. Any run in the 1st inning
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    First PitchDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's genuine 1st-inning total is Over 0.5 +118 / Under -138; FanDuel also posts +106 / -136.
    • Posted top three are Tatis, Harris, Machado vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: 2026 vs-R xwOBA .371/.311/.329.
    • Posted Brewers top three are Chourio, Turang, Contreras vs LHP Robbie Ray: 2026 vs-L xwOBA .365/.295/.314; Ray's 2026 first-inning line includes 15 walks and 3 homers in 124 PA.
    • American Family Field is roof-closed with a 96 park-runs factor; no wind boost exists, and the warehouse exposes no first-inning xwOBA or ERA.
  29. Ty France over 0.5 hits
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed batting fourth; lineup feed lists France active for this game.
    • France cleared 0.5 hits in 6 of his last 10 appearances, meeting the 60% form gate.
    • His .303 average versus right-handed pitching is strong across 370 same-hand plate appearances.
    • Jacob Misiorowski has a 12.98 K/9 and .226 expected wOBA allowed, a difficult opposing starter.
  30. Milwaukee Brewers first-five spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jacob Misiorowski posts 2.13 xERA, 12.98 K/9, and 49.6% first-inning K rate.
    • Robbie Ray shows 4.82 xERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 5.96 ERA across his last five starts.
    • Milwaukee's posted top five versus lefties carry .3069 xwOBA; Misiorowski's early-contact profile is far stronger.
    • San Diego's posted top five versus righties carry a stronger .3198 xwOBA, led by Tatis (.3714) and Merrill (.3570).
  31. San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers first-five total over 2.5Favorite
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Polymarket US

    Halfway HomeUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game totals sit at 6.5, 7, while the F5 3.5 market is priced around even-to-over; the 2.5 rung carries the lower-tail mass.
    • Robbie Ray owns a 4.82 xERA, 5.65 L3 ERA and 5.96 L5 ERA; his first-inning K rate is only 20.2%.
    • Milwaukee's top five versus left-handed pitching include Chourio (.365 xwOBA) and Bauers (.348); San Diego's top five versus righties include Tatis (.371) and Merrill (.357).
    • Jacob Misiorowski is the major counterweight: 2.13 xERA, 0.80 WHIP and a 49.6% first-inning K rate.
  32. San Diego Padres +1 run line
    0%Push

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Padres +1 pushes if Milwaukee wins by exactly one; it loses only when Milwaukee wins by 2+.
    • After normalizing the adjacent pair, the inferred fair whole-number price is near +126, so +130 is a modest edge rather than a table-banger.
  33. Milwaukee Brewers run line −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, 2.13 xERA and .226 xwOBA allowed; Ray: 3.73 ERA, 4.82 xERA and .335 xwOBA allowed.
    • The 2.69-run xERA gap favors Milwaukee creating separation, not merely winning; the run-line price is the value expression.
    • Milwaukee's bullpen has used 3.67 innings over seven days versus San Diego's 10.67, supporting late margin durability.
    • Most likely loss: San Diego scores early against Ray and Milwaukee wins narrowly or loses, failing to clear 1.5 runs.
  34. Milwaukee Brewers first-five to winFavorite
    0%Push

    Taken at −260 on DraftKings

    Number EarnedDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Milwaukee wins the first five 74%; fair line approximately -285, versus DK breakeven 72.2%.
    • Jacob Misiorowski: 1.80 ERA, .226 xwOBA allowed, 12.98 K/9, and 18 quality starts in 30 starts.
    • Robbie Ray: 3.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.82 expected ERA, and 12 quality starts in 30 starts.
    • San Diego's .3198 xwOBA versus right-handed pitching is stronger than Milwaukee's .3069 versus lefties.

Questions

Who won Padres vs. Brewers?

The Brewers won 3-2 on Saturday, Oct 3, 2026.

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