Updated
FinalChase Stadium · Fort Lauderdale
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| IM | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSan Diego spread +1 39¢
Why Team Sheet Pairs likes it: Confirmed XI starts Marcus Ingvartsen: 0.54 xG/90 and 7.04 rating versus Amahl Pellegrino's 0.21 xG/90 and 6.69 rating.
Team Sheet PairsUp 1% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +35% return
- San Diego spread +1+156%Won
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs- Confirmed XI starts Marcus Ingvartsen: 0.54 xG/90 and 7.04 rating versus Amahl Pellegrino's 0.21 xG/90 and 6.69 rating.
- San Diego's current attacking core also includes Dreyer at 0.39 xG/90 and Achouri at 0.32 xG/90.
- No pre-lineup ProphetX spread capture exists; this is projection, not a timing claim, so repricing cannot be ruled out.
Deep Book- PROJECTION corroborates: soccer model rates San Diego 0.46 away, Inter Miami 0.30 home, draw 0.24; form coverage is 10 games, xG coverage minimum is 8.
- LEAN only. The 3.94x ratio is below the 10x recommended threshold.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals−100%Lost
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Miami 1.75 for / 1.51 against; San Diego 1.57 for / 1.08 against; gp_with_xg 9 / 8.
- Rest is near-neutral: Miami eight days, San Diego seven; neither side carries a congestion flag.
- Most likely loss is four or more goals; the model leaves approximately 38.8% in that tail.
- Total goals under 4.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Both confirmed XIs are posted; Miami has 8 rest days and San Diego 7, with no congestion flag, supporting stable tactical plans rather than emergency rotation.
- Pinnacle is also below the venue's 4.5-goal threshold (4.25 under −118); context supports the structural under read, not the placement.
- The most likely loss is an early goal opening the match and producing a five-goal transition game.
- San Diego wins by more than 1.5 goals−100%Lost
Taken at 6¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- MLS 2026 same-season results show San Diego's side of the rung, away wins by 2+, in 43 of 386 matches (11.1%).
- Inter Miami lambda is 1.40 versus San Diego 1.76; the Dixon-Coles row also gives San Diego 0.46 to win and Miami 0.30.
- no independent sharp price exists for this exact San Diego 2+ rung; the sharp board only quotes the opposite Miami −1.5 rung. Band: LEAN.
- The 11.1% comparator is all same-season MLS, not a San Diego-specific matchup sample; the lambda cross-check is materially more bullish than that baseline.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. Inter Miami?
Inter Miami won 2-2 on Sunday, Sep 20, 2026.