Updated
FinalSeattle Stadium · Seattle
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEAT | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals over 2.5 36¢
Why Two Nil likes it: The 2.5-goal ladder implies roughly 3.3 market goals, about 0.55 above the xG projection; model Dixon-Coles confirms Over 2.5 at 0.52 versus the market's 0.64-0.65.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 612 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +102% return
- Match total goals over 2.5+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- The 2.5-goal ladder implies roughly 3.3 market goals, about 0.55 above the xG projection; model Dixon-Coles confirms Over 2.5 at 0.52 versus the market's 0.64-0.65.
- PPDA is 14.01 Seattle and 13.62 RSL with field tilt 43.4% and 44%; proxy-based tempo data adds no strong over nudge, and both teams have four rest days.
- Raw, non-opponent-adjusted xG points to about 2.93 goals, so the 2.74 projection depends materially on the schedule adjustment.
- Under 3.5 Total Goals+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG: Seattle 1.21 for / 1.42 against; RSL 1.26 / 1.59; xG coverage is 9 home and 10 away matches.
- Rest is even at four days; the preview lists both starting XIs confirmed at 11 players.
- Four or more goals loses; 2.75 is a mean, and the three-goal bucket remains pivotal.
- Match total under 2.5+178%Won
Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Seattle's confirmed XI omits Paul Rothrock (10 starts, 0.22 xG/90) and Pedro de la Vega (6 starts, 0.23 xG/90).
- RSL's confirmed XI omits Diego Luna (7 starts, 0.17 xG/90, 7.18 rating); he is listed sidelined four days.
- Opening under 2.5 was +150; current +178 moved toward over, so this is a projection read, not a timing claim.
- Seattle still starts Dejan Joveljić, Albert Rusnák and Paul Arriola; the replacement XI can create enough chances.
- Seattle Sounders −1+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- both confirmed XIs have 11 starters; each team has 11 recent fixtures with lineups, and xG coverage is present.
- Diego Luna is absent from RSL's XI after 7 starts in his last 10; his recent profile was 7.18 rating, 0.17 xG/90 and 2.16 chances created/90.
- Confirmed-starter attacking xG is 2.94 for Seattle versus 1.77 for RSL.
- LEAN only: market_history returned no pre-lineup ProphetX capture, so the board's reaction to the XI cannot be measured.
- Total goals under 3.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
Bench BossDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Seattle's last 10 home matches produced 10 goals; RSL's last 10 away matches produced 10.
- Both teams have 4 rest days and no congestion flag; confirmed 11-man XIs reduce late-rotation uncertainty.
- Warehouse expected goals total 2.75, while the extra half-goal above 3 gives a controlled-game buffer.
- Most likely loss: an early Seattle goal forces RSL into an open chase and produces four or more goals.
- Seattle Sounders spread >1.5 goals: No−100%Lost
Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent lambda cross-check estimates Seattle winning by 2+ about 18.6%, versus Kalshi YES midpoint 31.5%; directional read is NO.
- Both teams have four rest days; recent 100 MLS matches show only 18% with a home margin of 2+ goals.
- Recent MLS distribution is pooled rather than Seattle-specific: 33 draws, 18 home one-goal wins, 21 away one-goal wins, and 15 total 2+ margins.
Show all 7 picks
- Match under 2.5 total goals+170%Won
Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX
Open PlayDown 8% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted xG blend gives Seattle 1.40 and RSL 1.34, or 2.74 expected goals.
- Pressing tilt nudges the build modestly to 2.79: PPDA 14.01 and 13.62, with field-tilt proxies 0.43 and 0.44.
- Poisson translation is approximately 47% for under 2.5 versus 36.8% implied by Pinnacle's same-rung +162 reference.
- xG coverage is moderate: Seattle has 9 games with xG and RSL 10; short windows widen estimation error.
Questions
Who won Real Salt Lake vs. Seattle Sounders?
Seattle Sounders won 2-0 on Wednesday, Sep 23, 2026.