Updated
FinalBank of America Stadium · Charlotte
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHIC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CHA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMatch total goals under 3.5 55¢
Why Two Nil likes it: Opp-adjusted xG: Charlotte xGF 1.39 and Chicago xGA 1.08 imply 1.24 home goals; Chicago xGF 1.10 and Charlotte xGA 2.02 imply 1.56 away goals.
Two NilUp 2% return this season · 614 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-1 on this game · +98% return
- Total goals under 2.5+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsInjury Time, Deep BookWhy 2 models like it
Injury Time- live Pinnacle under 2.2 at −101 independently agrees with the low-total direction.
- Hypothesis: neither named pattern; this is a clock-scaled projection with an independent live-price check.
- A goal immediately creates a high-variance path to three or more; the true match minute is not in the feed.
Deep Book- ProphetX board as_of_pt: 2026-09-26T14:02:29-07:00. This is a LEAN, not a model-confirmed recommendation.
- Charlotte has 21 goals in 10 home matches; three goals beat the ticket regardless of the price.
- Match total goals under 3.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Opp-adjusted xG: Charlotte xGF 1.39 and Chicago xGA 1.08 imply 1.24 home goals; Chicago xGF 1.10 and Charlotte xGA 2.02 imply 1.56 away goals.
- Computed expected total is 2.80 versus roughly 3.4+ goals implied by the full Kalshi ladder (Over 1.5 through Over 5.5).
- Self-reference only: Pinnacle is posted at a non-equivalent 3.2-goal rung, so there is no independent sharp price for exact 3.5.
- Under 2.5 Total Goals+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Lambda total is 2.76; opponent-adjusted xG totals 2.49 (Charlotte 1.39, Chicago 1.10).
- Dixon-Coles inputs: lambda home 1.11, lambda away 1.65, rho −0.05; xG coverage is 9/10 and 10/10.
- Lambda total exceeds 2.5, so the edge depends on the model's low-goal mass and calibration.
- Total Goals (Regular Time) under 3.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Team Sheet PairsDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Chicago's Robert Lewandowski is absent: 0.50 xG/90 and 7.12 rating across the current sample.
- Charlotte's Liel Abada is absent: 0.47 xG/90; Idan Toklomati is also absent at 0.42 xG/90.
- The board already moved modestly toward the under; the timing component is gone.
- Chicago Fire spread over 1.5−100%Lost
Taken at 15¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 days - Chicago Fire +1+39%Won
Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX
Low Tide LineDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Warehouse lambdas favor Chicago 1.65 goals to Charlotte 1.11; the Poisson handicap estimate avoids a 2-goal loss about 90% of the time.
- Pinnacle's live reference has Chicago +0.2 at −110 versus Charlotte −0.2 at −101, agreeing with the Chicago side direction.
- The exact sharp reference is +0.2, not ProphetX's +1; the placed price is a venue self-reference rather than an exact-line sharp quote.
Show all 7 picks
- Chicago Fire to win+203%Won
Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi
Low Tide LineDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Feature coverage is complete: model, form, xG and ratings present; thinner xG side has 9 matches.
- Chicago's away field tilt is .483 versus Charlotte's .382; Chicago PPDA is 16.24 versus Charlotte's 20.63.
- point projection gap is unusually large and may indicate missing lineup or injury information.
Questions
Who won Chicago Fire vs. Charlotte?
Chicago Fire won 1-0 on Saturday, Sep 26, 2026.