Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union: Final Score & Model Picks

Updated Nov 3, 10:45 PM PST

FinalSubaru Park · Chester

Orlando City

2-4

Philadelphia Union

Score by period
Team	1	2	T
OC	0	2	2
PHIL	2	2	4

How the picks did

Models went 0-7 on this game · −100% return

Total goals under 3.54 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
4 modelsTeam Sheet Pairs, Deep Book +2
Why 4 models like it
Team Sheet Pairs
- Confirmed Orlando XI omits Antoine Griezmann, who started 5 of Orlando's prior 6 fixtures.
- Griezmann's club sample: 0.53 xG/90, 0.85 big chances created/90, 1.82 chances created/90, 7.85 rating.
- The board already moved toward the under: over probability fell from 0.58 at 3:37 PM to 0.57 at 3:43 PM.
Deep Book
- Four or more regular-time goals lose the contract; an early goal increases game-state variance.
Open Play
- Poisson fair estimate at 3.01 goals gives approximately 64.6% for under 3.5.
- Coverage gate passes: both teams have 10 games with xG; moderate MLS sample, not a deep-season estimate.
- Only 10 xG-backed matches per team creates a wide error bar and limits conviction.
Low Tide Line
- Global under 3.5 maps exactly to ProphetX regular-time under 3.5; cohort price decay is only about 1.1%.
- Under loses at four or more goals; modeled total mean remains 3.39, so tail risk is material.
Match total over 3.5 goals
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Two NilUp 3% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Venue self-reference: no exact-rung sharp quote; Pinnacle's adjacent 3.75 line is contextual only, not treated as a same-rung price.
- The model's 0.66 Over 2.5 probability is materially hotter than the 3.01 xG projection.
Under 3.5 Total GoalsHigh conviction
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Two Nil PairsUp 1% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Venue ladder: under 2.5 is +320 and under 4.5 is −174; the main under 3.5 rung is the misplaced middle price.
- No confirmed XI yet; a late striker or goalkeeper change could move the pre-lineup lambdas.
Philadelphia Union spread NO over 1.5 goals
−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
HandicapDown 4% last 30 days
Why it likes it
- Dixon-Coles lambda cross-check (2.24 home, 1.15 away) gives Philadelphia >1.5 at 39.4%; NO fair probability 60.6%.
- 2026 MLS home goal differences show 0/1/2 goals at 100/86/48 of 388; +2 or more was only 90/388 (23.2%).
- Philadelphia cleared >1.5 in 3/12 2026 MLS home matches; Orlando cleared >1.5 in 1/13 away matches.
- Thin team samples, 12 Philadelphia home matches and 13 Orlando away matches, may not transfer to this matchup.