NBA DFS pick'em, Nov. 4: Dabble hasn't caught up to Ayo Dosunmu's new job
Since Anthony Edwards went down, Dosunmu has nearly doubled his rebounds, 4.0 to 7.8 a game. Dabble still pays his over 4.5 like a 41% shot; the books make it 50% to 53%. Lines as of 6:26 a.m. PT.
The books back all three of tonight's plays
Ayo DosunmuMIN · ReboundsPrizePicks4.5Underdog4.5Pick64.5Sleeper4.5Dabble4.5Market50% overOver 4.5
Isaiah HartensteinOKC · ReboundsPrizePicks10.5Underdog10.5Pick610.5Sleeper10.5Dabble10.5Market53% overOver 10.5
Paul ReedDET · BlocksPrizePicks·Underdog1.5Pick61.5Sleeper1.5Dabble1.5Market66% underUnder 1.5I don't believe there's such a thing as a minor knee surgery. It's only a minor surgery when it's somebody else's knee.
Brian Windhorst told ESPN's podcast he isn't buying that Anthony Edwards' knee scope is minor, Basketball Network reported, and the Timberwolves have given no return date. That makes Ayo Dosunmu's promotion to the starting lineup a job, not a spot start.
Dosunmu is rebounding like it: 7.8 a game in four starts, up from 4.0 in four games off the bench. Every pick'em site hangs 4.5, but Dabble pays 2.45 on the over, which needs a 41% hit rate. Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel make it 50% to 53%.
Dosunmu went from sixth man to 34 minutes a night
Edwards last played Oct. 26 and had knee surgery Oct. 29. Dosunmu has started all four games since, and his minutes jumped from 26 a night off the bench to 34.
More minutes and more time with the ball mean more rebounds. He has cleared 4.5 in three of his four starts, with 9 at San Antonio and 12 against Milwaukee in the last two. Four games each way is a small sample, but the minutes back it.
Dosunmu has cleared 4.5 rebounds in three of four starts
Houston could help, too. The Rockets are short on bigs, with Steven Adams out and Clint Capela questionable on the NBA's injury report. Dosunmu is listed as an expected starter again tonight on NBA.com's projected lineups, and every game is in his game log.
Hartenstein and Reed got bigger jobs, too
The other two plays follow the same pattern: a teammate went down, a role got bigger, and one site's price didn't move with it.
- Isaiah Hartenstein over 10.5 rebounds on Dabble. He's grabbing 12 a game since Chet Holmgren's knee injury, including 14 against these Cavaliers Monday.
- Paul Reed under 1.5 blocks on Pick6. He's starting while Jalen Duren sits with a hamstring strain, and has two or more blocks in just two of seven games.
Hartenstein is the cleanest case. Holmgren is out eight to 10 weeks, and Hartenstein's minutes went from 22 a night to 26. He has cleared 10.5 in three of his four games since.
Reed's under rests on how lumpy blocks are. In five starts since Duren went down, he has averaged 1.4 and reached two only twice. DraftKings and FanDuel make the under about 66%, above the 58% a 2-pick power play needs.
Dabble is the site that hasn't caught up
PrizePicks, Underdog and Sleeper price all three players close to the books, so none of their sides pays enough to take. The gaps are on Dabble, which sets its own price per side, and on one Pick6 blocks line.
Dabble pays 2.20 on Hartenstein's over, which needs a 45% hit rate. DraftKings and FanDuel make it 52% to 53%. We took one pick per player and skipped goblins and demons, which pay off multipliers our feed doesn't show.
Reed's line is different. Pick6 posts his 1.5 as a two-sided line, so the under counts like any standard pick there. Dabble's under is also a play, at a smaller edge.
When a star goes down, the books reprice his teammates within a day or two. A site that sets each side by hand can trail, and that lag is where tonight's value sits.
The math on Dosunmu: a 2.45 payout breaks even if he clears 4.5 about 41% of the time. If Pinnacle's 50% is right, that leg is worth about 23% more than it costs.
What to check before the 4:00 p.m. PT tip
- Thunder big Jaylin Williams is questionable. His return would cut into Hartenstein's rebounds. Recheck ESPN's injury list before tip.
- The NBA schedule has 76ers at Pistons 4:00 p.m., Cavaliers at Thunder 5:00 p.m., Timberwolves at Rockets 5:30 p.m. PT.
- More on our game pages for Timberwolves at Rockets and Cavaliers at Thunder, our NBA predictions and what's wrong with the Thunder.
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Questions people ask
What are the best NBA pick'em plays for Wednesday, Nov. 4?
As of 6:26 a.m. PT: Ayo Dosunmu over 4.5 rebounds and Isaiah Hartenstein over 10.5 rebounds on Dabble, and Paul Reed under 1.5 blocks on Pick6.
Is Ayo Dosunmu starting for the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards?
Yes. He has started all four games since Edwards went down, playing 34 minutes a night and averaging 7.8 rebounds, up from 4.0 in four games off the bench.
How long is Anthony Edwards out?
The Timberwolves gave no timetable after his Oct. 29 knee procedure. Earlier reports said he could miss up to two months.
Why do pick'em lines differ from the books?
Each site sets its own lines and payouts. Dabble prices each side separately, so its price can lag the books when a player's role changes after an injury.
How we did this
Pick'em lines from Snapp's board (PrizePicks, Underdog, Pick6, Sleeper, Dabble) with Pinnacle, DraftKings and FanDuel no-vig prices, read 6:19 a.m. and rechecked 6:26 a.m. PT. A play is a side every compared book favors by enough to clear a fixed-payout break-even, or, on Dabble, beats Dabble's own price at every book. Pinnacle had no Hartenstein or Reed line. Player stats: Snapp's NBA warehouse, games through Nov. 3; injuries from the NBA's official report.