Which opening-week college basketball upsets actually mean something?

Two of the three upsets were shooting nights

Picture every player shooting his usual percentage from three and the free-throw line. Iowa State and Oklahoma both flip to double-digit wins, and Arizona-UCLA becomes a coin flip.

This replays one night; it is not a ranking of who is better. It ignores how well the defense guarded those shots, and freshmen and transfers with no Division I record get the national average.

Iowa State lost a shooting night, not the matchup

The Cyclones lost 80-76, but they beat Memphis inside. They won the paint 38-26 and made 17 of 27 shots inside 8 feet, in front of a mostly Cyclones crowd at the neutral Sanford Pentagon.

Then they went 4 of 20 from three. Those same shooters hit 35% last season, about 7 makes. Tamin Lipsey went 1 of 7, Jamarion Batemon 0 of 4, and Memphis made two more threes than its shooters usually do.

A team of 35% shooters has a night that cold about once in nine games.

Now the receipt: our preseason piece said the AP poll may be too low on Iowa State at 18th. We still think the shooting comes back. The defense is the real question: Memphis scored 80 with 33 free throws, and guard Killyan Toure, whom CBS Sports called a "defensive maven," was out hurt.

Oklahoma missed 15 free throws, and that is not a habit

East Texas A&M was picked last in the Southland and won in Norman anyway. ESPN Research called it the second-biggest Division I upset in 30 years by the pregame line.

Porter Moser pointed to two numbers: "We had 15 turnovers, 15 missed free throws." Only one of those decided the game: East Texas A&M also turned it over 15 times.

Oklahoma made 17 of 32 at the line. Its players hit 74% last season, worth 6 or 7 more points, and a night that bad happens about once in 100 games. Oklahoma also went 5 of 20 from three while Alonzo Dodd made 5 of 9 for the Lions.

We gave most Lions shooters the national average because they are new to Division I, and the Lions did lead for most of the night. Still, Oklahoma got to the line 32 times to 13. That team is better than 68-64 says.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi warned that "Oklahoma had better not find itself on the bubble after that head-scratcher of a loss."

UCLA earned its win over Arizona

Arizona shot cold too, 7 of 30 from three, and normal shooting makes it a 1-point Arizona win. The difference is that UCLA did not need luck: its own shooters hit their usual rate.

The Bruins won the possession game. They had 16 offensive rebounds to Arizona's 12 and 7 turnovers to Arizona's 11, which added up to 11 more shots. Work on the glass and care with the ball carry from game to game far better than threes do.

For Arizona, watch how many threes it takes, not how many fall. Half its shots came from deep, nearly double last season's share, while center Motiejus Krivas took only four shots. Shot choices settle fast; makes take months.

One game in, KenPom already dropped all three losers, Oklahoma furthest, from 29th to 54th. Parrish read UCLA's win right. Iowa State and Oklahoma deserve a few more games before anyone sells, and our college basketball predictions will move with the ratings.