Predators vs. Maple LeafsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalScotiabank Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame over 6.5 total goals 44¢
Why Second String Shootout likes it: Anthony Stolarz is confirmed for Toronto; his 25 starts versus Joseph Woll's 38 last season identifies the non-primary goalie.
Second String ShootoutUp 19% return this season · 27 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · +1% return
- Game over 6.5 total goals+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Novig
Second String ShootoutUp 39% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Anthony Stolarz is confirmed for Toronto; his 25 starts versus Joseph Woll's 38 last season identifies the non-primary goalie.
- Nashville's blended expected attempts are 62.95: 59.2 recent for plus Toronto's 66.7 allowed, above the recent top-fifth cutoff.
- The exact Pinnacle 6.5 price was not posted; the same-line fair is modeled from Pinnacle's current 6.0 market and the half-goal distribution.
- Auston Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 4.0 SOG average over his last 10 completed games, exactly 0.5 above the 3.5 line.
- 3:31 average power-play ice time over the same 10-game sample; projected top-line role.
- Nashville allows 30.0 SOG/game, eighth-highest in the current 2026-27 sample and inside the brief's bottom-10 allowance gate.
- The last-10 sample spans an early-season three-game cluster plus older games, so current-form stability is limited.
- Goal in first 10 minutes NO−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi
First TenDown 22% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Confirmed Saros (.933 SV% in two starts) and Stolarz (.963 in one) form an elite goalie pairing.
- Raw shot profile is stronger for Toronto (about 30.0-foot average) but both goalies materially suppress early scoring.
- Model's 49% goal estimate remains below the 84% first-period over-0.5 reference, passing the coherence check.
- Saros and Stolarz have only two and one starts this season; their 2025-26 save rates were .8935 and .8927.
- Nashville Predators @ Toronto Maple Leafs total over 6+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.35 goals: 5.90 shrunk rate baseline plus a 0.45 empty-net adjustment.
- Toronto’s recent margins are -1, +1, -1; Nashville’s are +1, -2: modest-margin outcomes, not a blowout profile.
- Projected Saros (.933) and Stolarz (.963) are strong early-season samples that can suppress this to five or fewer.
- Nashville Predators under 6 total goals−100%Lost
Taken at −104 on Pinnacle
high-confidence main marketsDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Independent probability: 61%; fair total 5.3 goals, above the 58% full-game-total gate.
- Confirmed Juuse Saros (.933 save percentage) and Anthony Stolarz (.963) are the scheduled starters.
- Combined current-season scoring is 3.5 goals per game; team defensive rates imply only about 3.9 expected goals.
- Early-season sample is only two Nashville and three Toronto games, so rates are noisy.
- Darren Raddysh over 2.5 shots on goal−100%Lost
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raddysh has cleared 3+ shots in 2 of his first 3 games.
- He leads Toronto in ice time and has 9 shots, second on the team.
- He is averaging seven shot attempts per game; Nashville has allowed the eighth-most shots overall.
- Raddysh could lose offensive-zone opportunities if Toronto leads or rolls a defensive game.
Show all 8 picks
- Juuse Saros over 24.5 total saves+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Saros's 30.44 shots-against/60 is 2.75 above the blend; his two current starts were complete games and Nashville did not play yesterday.
- Most likely loss: Toronto produces 24 or fewer shots, leaving Saros below 25 saves.
- Nashville Predators−100%Lost
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
Backup TaxNew modelWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle -153/+138 devigs to a 41% Nashville baseline; current -153 is only one cent from first captured -154.
- Stolarz is Toronto's confirmed starter but the backup to usual No. 1 Sergei Bobrovsky; Bobrovsky started two of Toronto's first three.
- Saros is Nashville's confirmed usual starter; he opened with 0.900 and 0.967 save percentages in his two starts.
- Stolarz stopped 26 of 27 (.963) in his only start, so the small-sample backup penalty may overstate the gap.
Questions
Who won Predators vs. Maple Leafs?
The Maple Leafs won 5–4 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.