Flyers vs. BruinsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTD Garden

Flyers

1–5Final

Bruins

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	0	1	1
BOS	1	1	3	5

Top model pick, graded

Won

3-leg parlay +53300

Why Parlay Lab likes it: Boston at 55.16c (-123): Bruins average 3.0 goals and allow 2.4; Philadelphia averages 1.2 and allows 3.8.

Parlay LabUp 24% return this season · 27 picksLongshots

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How the picks did

Models went 4-1 on this game · +10899% return

3-leg parlayLong shot
+53300%Won
Taken at +53300
Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Boston at 55.16c (-123): Bruins average 3.0 goals and allow 2.4; Philadelphia averages 1.2 and allows 3.8.
- Georgia at 46.73c (+114): 5-0 record, +0.2596 recent offensive EPA/play and 98.5 team grade versus Alabama's 95.9.
- Vegas at 61.24c (-158): Golden Knights are 4-1 with a 4.2, 2.6 goals-for/against profile; Los Angeles is 0-2-1 at 3.0, 5.0.
- Boston loses if suspended Charlie McAvoy and goaltending volatility outweigh the Flyers' poor attack; Philadelphia has won the last two meetings.
David Pastrnak 1+ goal NO
+59%Won
Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi
Hot Hand CoolerDown 49% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Shrunk shot rate and finishing estimate produce about a 28% goal probability; NO is about 72%.
- Philadelphia starter Joseph Woll is listed at .927 save percentage and 2.61 GAA this season.
- Pastrnak is listed in Boston's top line; Philadelphia's 75.0% penalty kill ranks 22nd, not bottom five.
- The current sample is only five games, not a full ten-game window.
Game total under 5.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Morning PuckDown 21% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model projects 5.25 total goals after early-season shrink toward the 6.23 league average.
- Projected starters own .932 (Swayman) and .927 (Woll) save rates; both are the teams' stronger options.
- The 5.5 sharp total agrees with the model within 0.25 goals; Polymarket US under costs 49¢.
- Swayman and Woll are projected, not confirmed six hours before puck drop; either backup would weaken the under.
Dan Vladar over 23.5 total saves
+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
Crease WorkloadUp 28% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Cold .863 save percentage over two current starts regresses toward .905, favoring over 23.5.
- Partial coverage uses prior-season team rates because both teams have fewer than 15 current games.
Boston Bruins −3.5Long shot
+1150%Won
Taken at 8¢ on Polymarket US
Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Boston's live full-game ladder is coherent through -1.5/.34, -2.5/.22, and -3.5/.08.
- The -3.5 rung implies an 8% Boston 4+ win rate versus the brief's roughly 11, 13% base range.
- The isolated 4+ tail is 4, 5 points below the form-gap benchmark; adjacent 2+ and 3+ gaps remain plausible.
- Boston is only a modest moneyline favorite near 56%; the strongest-favorite base rate may overstate its 4+ tail.

Questions

Who won Flyers vs. Bruins?

The Bruins won 5–1 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.